Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Is it time to Capitalise on Short Squeezes ? Short Squeezes are one of the interesting price action patterns that can occur in the market. They can provide It can provide explosive momentum trading opportunities that can go on for days.
They can provide trading opportunities for scalpers, intraday, and swing traders. What actually is a short squeeze and why do they occur? To understand a short squeeze it is important to go back to the basics of trading and understand what an actual short is and why market participants go short on a product.
What is a short? A short is a position that a market participant takes when they expect the price of a market product to go down. This can include but is not excluded too, Securities, Commodities and Forex.
A trader may take a short position because they believe a company is overvalued, a currency will go down in value due to economic factors, to hedge or for a number of other reasons. Short positions can be taken in a range of ways, however, the most common method for shorting a CFD is quite simple. It involves borrowing units to sell with the short holder having to buy-back the units at a lower price and pocketing the difference.
Example A trader believes that company ABC is overvalued at $1.00 and decides to borrow 100 CFD units of ABC to short at $1.00 per CFD with a total value of $100. The price then falls to $0.50. The trader closes their position and buys back the CFDs at $50.
They are then able to pocket the difference of $50.00. The mechanics of a short squeeze. Due to the nature of a short position which requires a buying back of the stock to both close the position and lock in profit a trader will inevitably have to buy-back or close their position at some point.
This subsequently drives up the price. Most of the time in a trending market this process works without any issues. However, if the price stops falling and consolidates or to a stage where the market starts to see value in the price again, large short holders may decide to close out their position.
If big positions or institutions close all at once it can create an avalanche effect. Indicators of a short squeeze A stock, currency, or commodity that is highly shorted or is overextended to the sell side is often ripe for a squeeze. In addition, if the underlying asset is getting closer to an area of support or resistance it may show that the selling has dried up.
Shorters may then need to close their positions soon otherwise they risk holding losing positions If a stock is bottoming or basing it may indicate that buyers are beginning to take control of the price again. This shows that the asset has reached a point where it really can’t fall any further in price because buyers see too much value. A shift in the relative volume can indicate that either a big position is closing or buyers have found an area of value and that the price might be ready to reverse.
The large volume can also indicate that an institution is playing an active role in the price. It is usually good practice to follow where the big money is when trading. Squeezing in the current market A short squeeze can represent a great opportunity to profit for traders.
They can often be explosive moves and last for days. This means that whether you are a swing trader, day trader, or a scalper anyone can capitalise on a squeeze. In addition, with the current state of the market having one of its worst first half of the years in history, with bearish sentiment being very high.
The Nasdaq in particular and growth stocks in particular have seen their value smashed. As big short positions have been taken at some stage they will have to be closed and if the market can rally, then this phenomenon may become more regular. For instance the company ZIP a strong player in the Buy Now Player Sector had seen its share priced reduced to a fraction of its peak prior to just a few weeks ago.
However as seen in the chart below, a shift in volume was the first signal that the stock was about squeeze and shift strongly to the upside. In this instance, ZIP on the weekly chart saw a massive jump in volume, followed by an even larger jump in volume the following week. Importantly ZIP, according to (Shortman.com.au) had a short % of 7.34 on July 1 2022, prior to the breakout.
Looking at the daily chart underneath, the sheer volume of buying continued to get larger and larger which is indictive of a short squeeze as large positions began to close. The subsequent price action provided great consistent buying opportunities for traders.
Meta Platforms (META) announced its Q2 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The social media giant fell short of analyst expectations for the quarter. Revenue reported at $28.822 billion in Q2 (down by 1% year-over-year), vs. analyst estimate of $28.908 billion.
Earnings per share at $2.46 per share (down by 32% year-over-year) vs. $2.54 per share expected. "It was good to see positive trajectory on our engagement trends this quarter coming from products like Reels and our investments in AI," Mark Zuckerberg, Meta founder and CEO said in a press release following the announcement of the latest results. "We're putting increased energy and focus around our key company priorities that unlock both near and long term opportunities for Meta and the people and businesses that use our services," Zuckerberg added. Q3 2022 projections David Wehner, CFO of Meta: "We expect third quarter 2022 total revenue to be in the range of $26-28.5 billion. This outlook reflects a continuation of the weak advertising demand environment we experienced throughout the second quarter, which we believe is being driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
We also anticipate third quarter Reality Labs revenue to be lower than second quarter revenue. Our guidance assumes foreign currency will be an approximately 6% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth in the third quarter, based on current exchange rates." Meta Platforms (META) chart* *Meta Platforms (META) is displayed as Facebook Inc. (FB) on the GO Markets MetaTrader 5 platform Share price of Meta was up by 6.55% at the closing bell on Wednesday, trading at $169.32 per share. The stock fell by around 3% in the after-hours trading.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +1.76% 3 Month -4.64% Year-to-date -50.40% 1 Year -55.31% Meta Platforms price targets Keybanc $190 Mizuho $250 Rosenblatt $181 Deutsche Bank $235 Morgan Stanley $280 Credit Suisse $245 Citigroup $270 Cowen & Co. 275 Meta Platforms is the 11 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $451.42 billion. You can trade Meta Platforms (META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Meta Platforms, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The S&P 500 has been battered and bruised in one of the worst first half of the years in history. However, there are some signs that it may be turning. A short term long buying opportunity on the SPY looks to be apparent.
With the recent bullish sentiment due to the market believing that much of the forecast slowing growth and interest rate hikes have been prices into the market already. The trading opportunity is a technical breakout of a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Firstly it is important to recognise that the S&P500 is still in a longer term down trend.
This can be seen on the chart below. Since December 2021 the SPX has been in a downward channel making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Therefore it is important to understand that this opportunity will be against the longer general trend of the market.
The Chart On the chart the wedge at the bottom of the channel has broken to the upside. Without this break it could’ve been possible that this would've formed into a bear flag. However on the contrary, it looks to have developed into a reversal pattern, as the price has coiled.
Furthermore, and importantly, the price has broken above the 50 day average. This is also supported by the MACD. The MACD is not just showing a crossover.
To add support to the reversal, the MACD is showing a double bottom pattern of exhaustion as it looks to break over the zero line for the first time since April. A conservative target would be the convergence of the next level of resistance and also the top line of the channel. This is a 4100 target.
If the index can break through 4100 level and continue to rise to 4230. As stated previously the second move up will likely face a large amount of resistance as it is fighting the general trend and against a fairly strong resistance point.
The Australian dollar has begun the week relatively strongly after gaining some momentum from RBA's most recent meeting. The board pushed across quite a hawkish sentiment sparking the rise in the AUD. They found that the current slowing growth across the market and global sphere created that was “becoming skewed to the downside.” The board expressed their concern about the economic activity in China, particularly with the threat of Covid 19.
With lockdowns and a strict covid policy, the threat remains a key factor in the speed of growth on the mainland. Whilst overall business activity improved through May and likely June as well, recent lockdowns have the potential to pull back these gains. The low unemployment signalled Australia’s robustness and strength with record high participation rates in the economy.
Violent weather events like the floods in NSW and the Russian and Ukraine crisis also further added strain on the supply driving up prices and increasing the price of goods. Non-labour inputs also rose in price contributing further to inflation. The members did note the prices for base metals had begun to ease as recession fears had grown.
In addition, declining house prices and clearance rates as a sign that the speed of inflation is potentially slowing, however, they still expect inflation to continue rising for the remainder of 2022. Ultimately the members of the board agreed to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points instead of the alternative of 25 points. With particular emphasis on the strong labour market, the need to bring inflation under control trumped the need for stronger growth.
In response to the release of the minutes, the AUDUSD saw a little rise higher. After sitting near its 52-week lows at $0.6681 in recent weeks, the minutes provided a much-needed push. The price of the AUDUSD currently sits at $0.6845 which is its prior support level and has now become a level of resistance.
If the AUDUSD can push through this level the next resistance point is at $0.6967. As the market is still dealing with unprecedented global inflationary figures, it remains risky to go against the USD, however with effective risk management this risk can be mitigated.
Recent History The USD has been on a tear in recent months as volatile market conditions have sent the currency rocketing. Inflationary pressures and recession fears have seen investors turn to the USD whilst at the same time taking off risk from the AUD. The AUD's drop has also been further is largely due to a decrease in the price of commodities such as Iron Ore, Brent Crude, Wheat, and other key resources that rive much of the Australian economy.
In addition, the AUD is seen as a risk currency. This means that the currency performs well when the economy is growing and the market is bullish and conversely suffers during times of volatility and slowed growth. There has been some positive price action to indicate that a reversal in the AUDUSD may be imminent.
Technical Analysis From a long-term perspective, the weekly chart shows that going back since 2015 the AUDUSD has been trading in a relatively stable range between approximately $0.6680 and $0.8126. The one exception to this was the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic which acted as a ‘Black Swan’ type of event towards the pair and the wider market, (A). This caused a mass panic and a subsequent sell off the AUDUSD.
Once the initial panic began to subside the pair recovered and was able to recover back into the range. It is interesting to note that over the last few years the pair has reverted to its 50-week moving average, after aggressive moves in either direction. In recent weeks, a reversal does appear to be emerging.
The candlesticks also support this by showing a red hammer candle followed by a relatively strong green candle indicating potential exhaustion, (B). Looking closely at the daily chart can provide a few more targets in terms of potential price targets. The next most reasonable price target could be the 50-day moving average which is also doubles as the next level of resistance at $0.6970.
If the price is able to break through this point, then it may go further target the 200 Day average of $0.7190. However, it will likely have to soak up a fair amount of selling pressure. Ultimately the strength of this pair will largely depend on how accurately the market is pricing in inflation and a recession.
If the selloff in equities has maxed out, then it may positively effect the direction of the AUDUSD. However, if there is more pain to come then the pair may sell further down.
Oil has seen its first real slip up in price since March. The commodity had been running on the back of high inflation and supply issues stemming from the Russian and Ukraine crisis. During the run Oil peaked at $137 a barrel before entering a period of consolidation.
The recent catalyst for the drop was OPEC announcing that 2023 would likely result in lower demand for Oil. In addition, the threat of Chinese lockdowns is once again rearing its ugly head, adding to the woes. Furthermore, there have been discussion in recent days and week with the President of the USA, Joe Biden pushing for an increase in production.
The price has now fallen out of the wedge and is testing the support level. A strong USD Oil historically moves inversely to the USD. This is because oil is priced in US dollars.
Therefore, when the US dollar is strong fewer US dollars are required to buy a barrel of oil. Conversely, when the USD is weak, more USD is required, increasing the price of Oil. Consequently, with the USD being as strong as it is currently, the price of oil had to at some point fall.
Slowing Growth A recession could be a strong driver for a dip in the price of oil as negative growth has reduces the demand for commodities. Growing economies require Oil and other commodities to develop their infrastructure. Therefore, a recession will likely lead to less manufacturing and less infrastructure development due to a reduction in demand.
Technical Analysis The price of Brent is approaching an important area of support. It can be observed that the price of Brent has broken down from its wedge pattern and following back into the longer-term trend. The price is sitting on its short-term support level of $97.
This level is also of extra importance because it also doubles as the 200-day average. It can therefore be expected that there will be a great deal of volume traded near this zone and that to break through it will require a great deal of selling pressure.