Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
In a time when you consumers could potentially be feeling domestic budgets tighten up, by the result of surging high inflation and rise in prices of commodities, you would be forgiven to be receiving the news that some of the biggest oil companies in the world, have acquired record profits with some skepticism, you would even question if these companies are acting in the best interests of its consumers instead of their shareholders? That’s the question that the Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) made, when he wrote to four major oil companies today demanding answers for how they are using their record high profits, and what – if anything – each company is doing to alleviate peoples’ pain at the pump. The letters come as drivers continue to bear the burden of higher-than-average fuel costs at the same time as the four major oil companies announced quarterly earnings of nearly $50 billion combined.
Exxon alone reported a profit of $17.9 billion – the highest quarterly profit reported by any oil company in history – while Chevron reported $11.6 billion, Shell reported $11.47 billion, and BP reported $8.45 billion ( USD ). The heat seems to be coming from all angles at the minute with various diplomats chipping in, back in June, president Joe Biden singled out Exxon for criticism, saying: Why don’t you tell them what Exxon’s profits were this year? This quarter?
Exxon made more money than God this year. Energy analysts at SP Angel says: The five remaining Majors (Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP & Total) have announced c.$59bn in 2Q22 profits, up almost 100% y/y, and returned c.45% of this to shareholders during the quarter. Based on their aggregate $1.1 trillion market cap, this quarter would represent an implied annualised profit margin in excess of 20%.
Some however have a more pragmatic approach and advise that the sector has been haemorrhaging money the last few years, a clampdown on pollution, a focus on a greener future and investment in renewable energy have curtailed some of the industries profits. Consider that in the past 10 years, major oil and gas companies suffered tremendous losses in 2014, 2015, and 2020. In fact, in 2020 the five integrated supermajors (i.e., “Big Oil”) – ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, and Total – lost $76 billion.
Oil prices plunged into negative territory in 2020. Were the oil companies feeling especially generous then? ExxonMobil for example doesn’t set oil prices.
They are set in the market by how much people are willing to pay, just like with Apple stock. U.S. oil companies are price takers, not price makers. Yes, speculators have an influence, just as they do with Apple stock.
Even OPEC and Russia don’t control oil prices, although they do have tremendous influence relative to ExxonMobil. If ExxonMobil decided to produce less oil to drive the price up, it just hurts ExxonMobil because OPEC and Russia can easily make that up. But if OPEC and Russia decide to produce less oil, there isn’t much the rest of the world can do to make that up.
This is a particularly unique asset class and one which investors could access in different ways, you could trade the spot price of US and UK oil also known as WTI and BRENT oil respectfully, you could directly buy or sell shares in these companies or invest in ETFs which have exposure to energy companies. If you would want to be a position to take advantage of these companies’ profits and the price action movement which follows it? Visit us here at GO Markets where you have a choice between trading the spot price as an CFD or acquiring shares through our share portfolio service.
Sources: Forbes, The Guardian, mirror.co.uk, https://energycommerce.house.gov/
Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Monday. One of the world’s largest gold producers reported revenue of $2.874 billion vs. $1.178 billion expected. The Canadian company reported earnings per share of $0.24 per share for Q2, also beating analyst estimate of $0.23 per share. ''A stronger Q2 performance across the portfolio has kept Barrick on course to achieve its annual gold and copper production guidance while continuing to progress its key growth projects.'' ''Gold production for the quarter was higher than Q1 at 1.04 million ounces — driven mainly by Carlin and Turquoise Ridge in Nevada, Veladero in Argentina, and Bulyanhulu and North Mara in Tanzania — and is expected to grow further in the second half of the year.
Copper production came to 120 million pounds.'' ''A dividend of $0.20 per share was declared for the quarter on the back of the strong operating performance and net cash of $636 million. During the quarter, Barrick repurchased $182 million in shares under the $1 billion share buyback scheme introduced earlier this year,'' the company wrote in a press release. Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) chart The stock price rose on Monday, up by around 5% at $16.27 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -4.18% 3 months -24.29% Year-to-date -14.37% 1 year -20.87% Barrick Gold price targets Barclays $25 Jefferies $24 UBS $34 Deutsche Bank $35 Credit Suisse $22 Barrick Gold Corporation is the 608 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $29.08 billion. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported its Q2 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The American biotechnology company posted results that beat expectations, sending the stock higher at the open. The company reported revenue of $4.749 billion for the quarter vs. $4.097 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $5.24 per share vs. $4.58 per share estimate. "Today's earnings represent a strong second quarter performance, with $10.8 billion in revenue for the first half of the year. We continue to have advance purchase agreements for expected delivery in 2022 of around $21 billion of sales. Given our strong financial position and commercial momentum, we are announcing today that the Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program for $3 billion," Stéphane Bancel, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Despite the slowing economy and challenges in the biotech industry, Moderna is in a unique position: a platform to drive scale and speed in research of new medicines, a strong balance sheet with $18 billion of cash and an agile, mission-driven team of over 3,400 people and growing.
We will continue to invest and grow as we have never been as optimistic about Moderna's future. Right now, we have four infectious disease vaccines in Phase 3 trials, and later this year, we expect important data from proof-of-concept studies in rare diseases and immuno-oncology. Our teams are actively working to prepare these new product launches to help patients and drive growth.
This is an exciting time for Moderna as we continue to see significant scientific and business momentum," Bancel concluded. Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart The stock was up by around 14% on Wednesday at $187.11 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +16.71% 3 Month +20.11% Year-to-date -26.68% 1 Year -55.56% Moderna price targets SVB Leerink $77 Piper Sandler $214 Morgan Stanley $199 Deutsche Bank $155 UBS $221 B of A Securities $180 Moderna is the 180 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.57 billion.
You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Todays RBA policy meeting is expected by most analysts to result in a 50bp hike as the bank tries to play catch up and get on top of elevated inflation figures. The slightly lower Q2 CPI figures released last week has seen futures markets price out what was earlier feared could be a 75bp supersized move, a 50bp hike would see the bank able to respond further in September should the Wage price index data due on 17 August show an alarming increase in wage costs. A 50bp hike today will bring the cash rate up to 1.85% which means we would be looking at least a further 65bp of hikes coming to bring the cash rate to the neutral level of 2.5% indicated by RBA governor Lowe at the last RBA policy meeting.
Currently August rate futures are trading at an implied yield of 1.76%, pricing in a rise of 41bp which indicates traders are giving around an 80% chance of a 50bp hike. Bond traders are rarely wrong when this much is priced in so I expect a 50bp move today with the accompanying statement giving clues to Septembers meeting where it’s looking so far as a toss up between 25 or 50bp. Expected AUD reaction If a 50bp hike is announced, the most likely course in the short term for the AUD will be an initial spike up due to the markets only pricing in 80%, then volatility as the algos read the statement, and more volatility as humans get through it.
Followed by a sustained move in either direction depending on how markets re-price after digesting what the RBA has released. Keep an eye on our Twitter page for instant reaction to the RBA announcement Also please join us on our live webinar of the RBA meeting and market reaction, register at the link below RBA Live Webinar
PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) announced its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The US financial technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion in Q2, topping Wall Street estimate of $6.778 billion. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates for the quarter at $0.93 per share vs. $0.87 per share estimate. ''Our second quarter results were solid with currency neutral revenue and non-GAAP earnings growth exceeding expectations.
We continue to gain share as we execute across our key strategic initiatives, even as we drive operational efficiency across our business.'' Dan Schulman, President and CEO of PayPal said in a press release after the latest results. PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) chart Shares of PayPal were up by 1.20% at the close of trading on Tuesday $89.63. The stock rose by around 11% after better than expected Q2 results.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +20.47% 3 Month -1.19% Year-to-date -52.47% 1 Year -67.23% PayPal price targets Berenberg $145 Oppenheimer $101 Keybanc $100 Wells Fargo $97 JP Morgan $112 JMP Securities $100 RBC Capital $92 Piper Sandler $93 Truist Securities $80 Credit Suisse $95 Morgan Stanley $129 PayPal is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $103.79 billion. You can trade PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: PayPal Holding Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) reported its Q2 financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. World’s third largest pharmaceutical company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $27.742 billion in Q2 (up 47% year-over-year) vs. $25.487 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $2.04 per share (up by 92% year-over-year) vs. $1.72 per share estimate. Dr. Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO commented on the latest results: ''In multiple meaningful ways, we made significant progress this quarter on our strategies to bring value to our patients and shareholders, while also making commitments to prioritize the broader needs of the world, including those of the environment and our most vulnerable populations.
For example, we set an ambitious goal for ourselves to achieve the Net-Zero Standard for greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, ten years ahead of the timeline described in the standard. We also launched an initiative to help bring all of our current and future patented medicines and vaccines to the 1.2 billion people living in 45 lower-income countries around the world at not-for-profit prices, a first in the industry.'' ''Even while launching these initiatives to support a healthier, more equitable world, we remain equally committed to strong financial execution on behalf of our shareholders. In the second quarter, we recorded the largest amount of quarterly sales in our history.
We also presented potentially best-in-class data for etrasimod and announced the proposed strategic acquisition of Biohaven, both of which are closely tied to our purpose: Breakthroughs that change patients’ lives,'' Dr. Bourla concluded. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) chart Despite beating Wall Street expectations for Q2, shares of Pfizer were down by around 1% at $50.98 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -2.82% 3 Month +0.87% Year-to-date -13.72% 1 Year +19.07% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley $49 Wells Fargo $55 Citigroup $57 B of A Securities $70 Goldman Sachs $51 Pfizer Inc. is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $285.76 billion. You can trade Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap