Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Overview Qantas is Australia’s national carrier and the largest and oldest airline in the country. With the Qantas group comprising of Jetstar, Qantas, QantasLink, its frequent flyer service and a freight service, the airline is the sector leader domestically and a global competitor in the international aviation industry. It is also the third oldest airline still operating and has seen many evolutions over the years to be the giant that it is today.
With recent threats of inflation, recessions, and the pandemic, the airline has been dealt some challenging blows but has managed to work its way through due to some astute leadership by its Board and its CEO, Allan Joyce. Recent Events Short Term Troubles In the short term the airline has struggled to service its flights and ground crew. With Covid 19 and the flu still rampant the company has had to deal with cancelations and a reduction in its workforce as it has faced difficult logistical challenges.
In June 2022, 8.1% of Qantas flights were cancelled according to the Australian, Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics. The company also lead the sector for delays in domestic flights. As a premium airline and the national carrier, the effect on the company’s reputation and goodwill, may prove to be costly.
Furthermore, building a long-term reputation of being unreliable may lead to a lowering of its market share as customer look to others. Bid for FIFO competitor hits a roadblock Qantas has a bid in place to acquire the airline that services much of the FIFO industry. Qantas had proposed a bid of $4.75 per share to buy the remaining 80% of the company of which it already own a 20% stake.
If the takeover were able to pass though regulatory approval it would provide the airline with a dominant share of the resources and industry. However, regulators at the ACCC expressed its concerns about the merger with the body outlining that the transaction may substantially weaken competition. Upcoming annual report The company is expected to release its annual report that will give further details on the company’s financial performance for the previous financial year.
The company is expecting to achieve EBITDA of between $450 million to 550 million dollars for the second half of the financial year. The impact of the oil crisis and the delta variant may heavily on the results. In addition, assuming operations can return to some normality in the next year, it is possible that the company will be able to return to profitability next year.
Strategy Long term strategy Qantas is transitioning its domestic, freight and international fleet to Airbus aircraft with longer ranges and an increased capacity over the currently used Boeing 737s. The shift towards Airbus’s called ‘Project Winton’ will improve fuel efficiency, range, and flexibility. The change may elevate Qantas’s ability to improve its bottom line as it allows for higher capacity and further range.
The flexibility of the aircraft enables Qantas’s fleet to remain more dynamic and for the company to meet the needs of both the international and domestic schedules. Specifically, the project will improve units’ costs vs the current fleet set up. Project Sunrise Qantas aims to be the first airline to connect the East Coast of Australia to key cities in Europe and the USA with direct flights.
Specifically, Sydney and Melbourne will be able to reach London, Paris, NYC, and Chicago with just one flight. Beginning in 2025 the program will utilise modified Airbus A350’s to make the journey. This strategy may provide the airline with an important point of difference as the first airline to partake in this route strategy.
The ‘project’ has two potential major advantages. Firstly, it allows for a reduction in costs. By removing layovers, the airline can save on costs associated to the airport and refueling and staff constraints.
Secondly, it allows Qantas to develop more route paths into Europe without the need to rely on code sharing agreements. Forecasting future cash flows and revenues The company is expected to return to profitability next year as it comes out the other side of the pandemic. The model used has predicted a revenue growth rate inline with the previous years of profitability.
Furthermore, considering the project sunrise the projecting is that the company can return to the revenue levels of 2017 – 2019 by the year 2024/2025. Whilst a conservative approach has been used, it is not unreasonable to have revenue get to this level earlier. The forecast revenues below are for the next 5/6 years.
In addition, it is assumed that during the year 2025 the company may see increased costs as it looks to establish its Project Sunrise and it goes through retraining of staff, crew, and maintenance staff. It is possible that in those initial years, Net profit may decrease due to this implementation. Forecast Revenue, in Million $ 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 5,930 8,685 11,000 14,000 17,000 17,792 18,621 Last financial year, the airline was able to improve its Net Profit margin by from 5% to 14% by heavily reducing its capital expenditure.
The pandemic caused the company to reduce its maintenance and purchasing costs. As of the last annual report Qantas was in a strong short- term position with a current ratio of 1.5. with the new report imminent, the ability meets its short-term liabilities, specifically relating to the price of fuel will be an important metric to analyse. With a Debt/Asset ratio of 0.33 the company has a solid balance sheet and is not at an overleveraged position.
After assessing all the opportunities and risks and understanding a price target of $5.50 in the next 12 months is not an unreasonable target, with a return to profitability and the airline hopefully seeing the end of Covid 19 restrictions. Threats Inflation With record high levels of inflation, the cost of inputs across the supply chain for Qantas. With the increases in costs of most inputs the airline will have to be careful in its pricing to ensure it can survive the increase in costs.
With the increase in fuel being an obvious problem, other input costs will also negatively affect the airline. In Australia, inflation is currently hovering around 6%. However, with the airline being multinational, and operating globally it is exposed to the inflation risk of the country it operates in.
Recession With much of the work expecting a recession, the pressure on the travel industry may increase again. Whilst it may be a soft landing for Australia’s economy, exposure to the world markets places Qantas at a level of risk. Demand for travel may be reduced.
Coming out of the pandemic, this is something that Qantas may find tough to deal with. With the company already implementing various strategies to reduce costs, the question remains, how can costs be cut further. Oil Prices As inflation reared its ugly head across the much of the developed world, Qantas has suffered at the hands of peaking oil prices.
With the price of Crude oil peaking at over $130 US a barrel during the height of the Ukraine and Russian war the cost was passed on to the airline industry. In response to the increases in prices the company had to increase the price of air fares proportionally to offset the price. In addition, 90% of the fuel costs for Qantas were hedged through till June meaning they were likely spared the worst of the spike in fuel price.
The figures from the annual report will provide some guidance to how well the company was able to manage the supply shock. Pandemic The pandemic has seen lots of blood appear, especially in the travel industry. Whilst the worst of the pandemic seems to be over, the potential for a resurgence or another major outbreak of a virus is still very much real, and the travel industry has not forgotten.
Ultimately, the Airline remains in a strong financial position. However, it has shown that it is prone to unsystematic risks that have the potential to throw the company into chaos.
Deere & Co. (DE) reported its financial results on Friday for the third quarter ended July 31, 2022. The American manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment reported revenue of $13 billion for the quarter, slightly above analyst estimate of $12.927 billion. Earnings per share fell short of estimates at $6.16 per share vs. $6.65 per share expected. ''We're proud of the extraordinary efforts by our employees to increase factory output and get products to customers under challenging circumstances,'' said John C.
May, CEO of Deere & Co. ''At the same time, our results reflected higher costs and production inefficiencies driven by the difficult supply-chain situation.'' ''Looking ahead, we believe favorable conditions will continue into 2023 based on the strong response we have experienced to early-order programs.'' ''We are working closely with our factories and suppliers to meet higher levels of customer demand next year. Additionally, we are confident the company’s smart industrial strategy and leap ambitions will continue unlocking new value for customers through Deere’s advanced technologies and solutions,'' May concluded. Deere & Co. (DE) chart The stock was down by around 1% at the open on Friday at $364.12 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +17.85% 3 months +45% Year-to-date +32% 1 year +71% Deere & Co. price targets JP Morgan: $325 Citigroup: $340 Deutsche Bank: $388 Barclays: $400 Credit Suisse: $472 Deere & Co. is the 113 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $112.47 billion. You can trade Deere & Co. (DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Deere & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Target Corporation (TGT) reported its second quarter earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The US retailer reported revenue of $26.037 billion (up 3.5% year-over-year), which was slightly above analyst estimate of $26.032 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.39 per share (down 89.2% year-over-year) vs. $0.79 per share expected. ''I’m really pleased with the underlying performance of our business, which continues to grow traffic and sales while delivering broad-based unit-share gains in a very challenging environment,'' Brian Cornell, chairman and CEO of Target Corporation commented on the second quarter results. ''I want to thank our team for their tireless work to deliver on the inventory rightsizing goals we announced in June.
While these inventory actions put significant pressure on our near-term profitability, we’re confident this was the right long-term decision in support of our guests, our team and our business. Looking ahead, the team is energized and ready to serve our guests in the back half of the year, with a safe, clean, uncluttered shopping experience, compelling value across every category, and a fresh assortment to serve our guests’ wants and needs,'' Cornell concluded. Target Corporation (TGT) chart The stock was down by 2.69% on Wednesday at $174.85 per share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +12.04% 3 months +8.50% Year-to-date -24.24% 1 year -29.18% Target price targets JP Morgan $190 Wells Fargo $195 Piper Sandler $190 Barclays $175 UBS $205 Deutsche Bank $198 Morgan Stanley $190 Goldman Sachs $171 Target Corporation is the 166 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $81.37 billion. You can trade Target Corporation (TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Li Auto Inc. (LI) reported its unaudited second quarter financial results on Monday. The Chinese automaker fell short of analyst estimates for the quarter. World’s 16 th largest automaker reported revenue of $1.207 billion vs. $1.416 billion expected.
The company reported a loss per share of -$0.04 for the quarter vs. -$0.02 loss per share expected. ''We delivered solid second quarter results in an environment with challenges and uncertainties through operational and product excellence. Our vehicles continued to win family users, not only illustrating the strength of our vehicle and the growing appeal of our brand, but also reaffirming the effectiveness of our strategy,'' Xiang Li, founder, chairman, and CEO of Li Auto said in a press release. Tie Li, CFO of Li Auto also commented on the latest results: ''We are pleased with our solid second quarter results in the face of numerous pandemic-related challenges.
Driven by our strong vehicle deliveries, our revenues reached RMB8.73 billion for the second quarter, up 73.3% year over year. The power of our product, our execution consistency, and operational resilience enabled us to mitigate the cost inflation affecting the entire industry. As a result, our second quarter gross margin remained relatively solid at 21.5%, up 2.6 percentage points year over year, and our cash flow from operations reached RMB1.13 billion.
In addition, with the ongoing at-the-market offering of up to US$2.0 billion of American depositary shares, we are further strengthening our capital base to support our robust growth trajectory going forward.'' Li Auto delivered 28,687 vehicles in Q2 – an increase of 63.2% year-over-year. Li Auto Inc. (LI) chart The share price of Li Auto was down by around 1% on Monday, trading at $32.11 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -18.62% 3 Month +44.73% Year-to-date -0.72% 1 Year +15.22% Li Auto price targets Citigroup $58 UBS $52 Morgan Stanley $41 Barclays $40 Deutsche Bank $35 Jefferies $44 Li Auto is the 585 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $30.74 billion.
You can trade Li Auto Inc. (LI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Li Auto Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) announced its Q2 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Thursday. The American automaker reported revenue of $364 million vs. estimate of $335.378 million. The company reported a loss per share of -$1.62 per share vs. -$1.63 per share expected. ''The second quarter of 2022 represented important progress as we delivered against key operational and commercial milestones.
We continued to ramp production on our R1 and RCV platform lines, producing 4,401 total vehicles during the quarter compared to 2,553 in the first quarter of 2022. We also rolled out EDV 700s with Amazon in more than a dozen cities in the United States, started production validation builds for the EDV 500, launched our fast charging Rivian Adventure Network, and initiated our new consumer vehicle reservation system. We remain focused on fully ramping our 150,000 installed annual units of capacity in Normal, Illinois to meet the strong demand for our products.
Our net consumer pre-order backlog as of June 30, 2022 was approximately 98,000 and momentum continues to increase,'' the company said in a letter to shareholders. ''In the second quarter of 2022, we produced 4,401 vehicles. Our equipment, people, systems, and supply chain continue to show progress as we work towards our 2022 production guidance of 25,000 units. Supply chain continues to be the limiting factor of our production; however, through close partnership with our suppliers we are making progress.
We expect to be able to add a second shift for vehicle assembly towards the end of the third quarter.'' Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) chart Shares of Rivian were up by 4.14% at the close of trading on Thursday at $38.89 a share. Here is how the stock has performed year-to-date: 1 month +26.34% 3 months +60.29% Year-to-date -62.44% Rivian price targets HSBC $28 Mizuho $48 Citigroup $41 Morgan Stanley $31 B of A Securities $26 UBS $32 Barclays $34 Rivian is the 518 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $34.01 billion. You can trade Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Rivian Automotive Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported the latest financial results for its third fiscal quarter after the closing bell on Wednesday. World’s largest entertainment company reported revenue of $21.504 billion for the quarter (up 26% year-over-year), topping Wall Street forecast of $20.994 billion. Earnings per share reported at $1.09 per share (up 35% year-over-year) vs. $0.97 per share estimate. ''We had an excellent quarter, with our world-class creative and business teams powering outstanding performance at our domestic theme parks, big increases in live-sports viewership, and significant subscriber growth at our streaming services.
With 14.4 million Disney+ subscribers added in the fiscal third quarter, we now have 221 million total subscriptions across our streaming offerings,'' said Bob Chapek, CEO of Walt Disney in a press release. ''We continue to transform entertainment as we near our second century, with compelling new storytelling across our many platforms and unique immersive physical experiences that exceed guest expectations, all of which are reflected in our strong operating results this quarter,'' Chapek concluded. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) chart Shares of Disney were up by 3.98% at the close on Wednesday at $112.42 a share. The stock price rose by around 6% in the after-hours trading following the latest results announcement.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +20.97% 3 Month +86% Year-to-date -27.41% 1 Year -36.87% Walt Disney price targets RBC Capital $150 Truist Securities $125 Goldman Sachs $130 Wells Fargo $130 Keybanc $131 Barclays $120 Citigroup $145 Morgan Stanley $125 Deutsche Bank $130 The Walt Disney Company is the 47 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $204.78 billion. You can trade The Walt Disney Company (DIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Walt Disney Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap