Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
The UK has had to deal with recessionary fears, sky high energy prices, a cost-of-living crisis, and a breakdown in political leadership. This has caused the GBP to fall to lows not seen since the last century. The British economy has also had to deal with a potential liquidity crisis caused by some of the large UK retirement funds almost bringing down the UK economy however with some support from the Bank of England the situation has in the short term been resolved.
The political pressures have also eased somewhat with Liz Truss stepping down and Rishi Sunak taking over the role of Prime Minister, which may further support the potential for a reversal and show o strength in the pound. With the price so beaten down at some stage it will have to turn around. The question is this reversal about to occur?
Technical Analysis On the weekly chart, the price has been ranging between 1.4369 and 1.1985. Earlier this year the price dropped below the bottom of the range for second time with the only other time being the initial stages of the pandemic. The lower bounds of the range present a potential target if the reversal is validated.
The price has finally started higher and the strength of the weekly candles and the volume supporting the price action indicates that supply is being depleted. The risk for a potential reversal is just how aggressive the long-term moving averages are to the sell side. Both the 50- and 200-week moving averages are still pushing to the downside.
The daily chart shows an interesting picture. The price of the pair is clearly coiling and almost ready to break out of its consolidation. If the price can break out it may provide a short-term target of 1.19853 may provide a potential price to take profit.
With volatility seemingly settling around the UK's economy, the potential for a reversal remains, which may only improve the prospects for the Pound.
Coca-Cola tops Wall Street Q3 estimates The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) reported Q3 financial results before the market open on Tuesday. The US beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating Wall Street analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). Revenue reported at $11.063 billion (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $10.52 billion expected.
EPS at $0.69 per share (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $0.637 per share estimate. ''Our strong capabilities and consumer insights continue to help us win in the marketplace,'' Coca-Cola CEO, James Quincey said in a press release. ''Our business is resilient amidst a dynamic operating and macroeconomic environment. We are investing in our strong portfolio of brands, which is a cornerstone of our ability to deliver long-term value for our stakeholders,'' Quincey added. Shares of Coca-Cola were up by around 1% on Tuesday, trading at $58.49 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +3.39% 3 months: -7.78% Year-to-date: -1.55% 1 year: +7.01% Coca-Cola price targets Deutsche Bank: $59 Wedbush: $63 Morgan Stanley: $68 Credit Suisse: $64 Wells Fargo: $66 HSBC: $76 UBS: $72 JP Morgan: $70 Coca-Cola is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $251.88 billion. You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported its Q3 financial results after the closing bell on Wednesday. World’s largest automaker exceeded earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter but fell short on revenue. Revenue reported at $21.454 billion (up by 56% year-over-year) vs. $21.982 billion expected.
EPS at $1.05 per share (up by 69% year-over-year) vs. $1.001 per share estimate. ''The third quarter of 2022 was another strong quarter with record revenue, operating profit and free cash flow. In the last 12 months, our free cash flow exceeded $8.9B. Our operating margin reached 17.2% in Q3.
We achieved an industry-leading operating margin' while encountering material headwinds YoY. Raw material cost inflation impacted our profitability along with ramp inefficiencies from Gigafactory Berlin- Brandenburg, Gigafactory Texas and 4680 cell production. Also, the U.S.
Dollar (USD) continued to strengthen compared to all other major currencies in our markets.'' ''We remain focused on increasing vehicle production as quickly as possible, by increasing our weekly build rate in Fremont and Shanghai and progressing steadily through the production ramps in Berlin and Texas. Logistics volatility and supply chain bottlenecks remain immediate challenges, although improving. We continue to believe that battery supply chain constraints will be the main limiting factor to EV market growth in the medium and long terms.
Despite these challenges, we expect to continue to deliver every vehicle produced while maintaining strong operating margins,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. Bank of America raised its price target for Tesla from $315 to $325 on Wednesday. "In light of capital markets volatility, we would note that Tesla’s self-funding status is a notable advantage versus some start-up EV automaker competitors," the bank said in a note to investors. The stock was down by around 3% on Thursday, trading at $214.80 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: -26.10% 3 months: -21.51% Year-to-date: -39.46% 1 year: -28.44% Tesla price targets Bank of America: $325 Deutsche Bank: $355 Wedbush: $300 RBC Capital: $325 Wells Fargo: $230 Morgan Stanley: $350 Mizuho: $370 Goldman Sachs: $333 Tesla is the 6 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $668.42 billion. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Twitter
The USD had a pullback in recent days as equities have rebounded allowing for other strong currencies such as the CHF to see From a technical perspective the chart shows some interesting price action that may indicates an important inflection point for the price. On the weekly chart, the price has been in a long-term range between 0.87 CHF and 1.03 CHF. With the USD being so strong over the last year, the price has been consolidating towards the top of the range.
The weekly chart also shows an important pattern forming which is a golden cross. This is when the shorter, (50 week Moving average) crosses over the longer (200 week moving average) which is usually a signal of the Bears taking control. However, looking at past price history this golden cross has not been a particularly accurate indication of a strong rise in price.
Rather it indicates just how choppy the price action is. On the shorter, daily time frame, the price has had a significant sell off to begin this week. Twice, the price has failed to break out of this range, and therefore the price may fall back down to the bottom of the range or at least test the support at 0.98326.
If the price can drop lower, it may fall right to the bottom of the range. On the other hand, both prior sell offs involved aggressive red sell candles. In this case there has only been one so far.
Therefore, waiting for the next sell candle may provide a good entry signal to go short. Alternatively, if the price can base and consolidate it may indicate that a breakout to the outside is about to occur. With economic data related to inflation still to come, the USD may till rise again supporting a potential break.
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) reported its latest financial results before the opening bell on Wednesday. The largest consumer goods company in the world topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter – sending the stock price higher at the open. Revenue reported at $20.612 billion (up by 1% year-over-year) vs. $20.33 billion expected.
EPS at $1.57 per share (down by 2% year-over-year) vs. $1.547 per share estimate. ''We delivered solid results in our first quarter of fiscal 2023 in a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of The Procter & Gamble Company said in a press release. ''These results enable us to maintain our guidance ranges for organic sales and EPS growth for the fiscal year despite continued significant headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum.
They remain the right strategies to navigate through the near-term challenges we’re facing and continue to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller concluded. The stock was up by around 2% following the latest results, trading at $131.11 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -3.34% 3 months: -7.32% Year-to-date: -19.80% 1 year: -7.10% Procter & Gamble price targets Credit Suisse: $140 JP Morgan: $140 Raymond James: $155 Deutsche Bank: $155 Morgan Stanley: $160 Wells Fargo: $150 Barclays: $154 Truist Securities: $160 The Procter & Gamble Company is the 17 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $313.81 billion.
You can trade The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Gold has finally seen some respite in its price after it fell to 12-month lows. With slowing growth forecasts being a key reason as to the drop in price. Recessionary fears can sometimes be good for the price as volatility draws money to gold as it is seen as a haven.
However, with the USD being so strong and investors pulling their money away from Gold, the commodity has struggled to protect its value. The price has shown some interesting action in recent days. The weekly price was able to break through its long terms support at about $1690.
However, as this level was so significant, the price is now retesting zone. In addition, the price has bounced off the 200-week moving average. The 200-week moving average is often seen as an extremely strong support level and rarely gets broken without significant resistance and then combined with the support zone has proven difficult to break down through.
However, the price is no sure thing to continue to bounce. As seen on the chart, the price is also in a consistent downward channel and has so far failed to break through the top of the channel. The daily chart confirms the bounce and shows why the price may have found resistance.
This is because it is currently resting below the 50-day moving average which is acting as long-term resistance and has acted as resistance since May 2022. The question remains, will the price remain at its current level, push up or push down. As more economic data comes out and Central banks either double down on inflation or pivot towards easing interest rates which will hopefully provide some more clarity on which way the price may go.
At this stage it would be best to wait for a confirmation either to the downside or upside of the channel.