Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Another day, another hike. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced its latest policy decision to raise its interest rates from 3.25% to 4%, to its highest level since January 2008. On Thursday, it was the Bank of England's turn to announce its decision.
As expected, the central bank raised its interest rates by 0.75% to 4%. It was the highest single increase since 1989. Inflation Bank of England highlighted that its biggest job is to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
The bank expects inflation to rise in Q4 but start falling from early next year. ''Inflation is too high. It is well above our 2% target. High energy, food and other bills are hitting people hard,'' the bank said in a statement. ''It’s our job to make sure that inflation returns to our 2% target.
This month we have raised our interest rate to 3%. In total, since December 2021, we have increased our interest rate from 0.1% to 3%.'' ''What will happen to interest rates will depend on what happens in the economy. At the moment, we expect inflation to fall sharply from the middle of next year.'' Economic outlook As for the economy, the central bank did not have the most positive outlook for the near future.
It now expects the recession to last for a prolonged period. ''There has been a material tightening in financial conditions, including the elevated path of market interest rates. In addition, high energy prices continue to weigh on spending, despite an assumption of some fiscal support for household energy bills over the next two years. As a result, the UK economy is expected to remain in recession throughout 2023 and 2024 H1, and GDP is expected to recover only gradually thereafter.'' Market reaction The Pound was weaker against all major currencies on Thursday, falling the most vs. the US Dollar.
Cable was down by around 1.93%, trading at 1.11771 level. The next Bank of England rate decision will be on 15th December.
Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) reported its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest online travel company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Revenue reported at $2.884 billion (up by 29% year-over-year) vs. $2.852 billion expected.
EPS at $1.79 per share (up by 46% year-over-year) vs. $1.485 per share estimate. ''Q3 was our biggest and most profitable quarter ever despite geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds,'' Airbnb wrote in a letter to shareholders. ''In Q3 2022, we had nearly 100 million Nights and Experiences Booked, up 25 percent year-over-year, and $15.6 billion in Gross Booking Value, up 31 percent year-over-year (or 40% ex-FX). Revenue grew 29 percent year-over-year (or 36% ex-FX) to $2.9 billion—our highest quarter ever.'' ''We also had our most profitable quarter with net income of $1.2 billion, up 46 percent year-over-year, representing a 42 percent net income margin. Free cash flow of $960 million increased more than 80 percent from a year ago.
And, over the last twelve months, we generated $3.3 billion in FCF, representing a FCF margin of more than 40 percent. ''Our Q3 results demonstrate that Airbnb continues to drive growth and profitability at scale. And regardless of continued macro uncertainties, we believe we’re well positioned for the road ahead.'' The company expects revenue of between $1.80 billion to $1.88 billion in Q4, which represent growth of between 17% and 23% year-over-year. Shares of Airbnb were trading lower on Wednesday, despite beating Q3 estimates due to future outlook.
The stock was down by around 10% at $97.80 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -12.18% 3 months: -14.67% Year-to-date: -41.05% 1 year: -43.23% Airbnb price targets Morgan Stanley: $110 Mizuho: $125 Baird: $120 UBS: $112 Credit Suisse: $154 Goldman Sachs: $98 Piper Sandler: $110 Keybanc: $142 Jefferies: $138 Airbnb Inc. is the 208 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $63.27 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Shares of Pfizer rise as Q3 earnings beat estimates Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) reported its latest financial results for the third quarter before the opening bell on Tuesday in the US. The US pharmaceutical company reported revenue of $22.638 billion (down 6% year-over-year) vs. $21.072 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $1.78 per share vs. $1.387 per share estimate.
David Denton, CFO of Pfizer commented on the results: ''Third-quarter results demonstrated commercial strength across many areas of our business but was somewhat obscured by the incredibly strong performance in the prior year. We saw strong operational performance this quarter from key brands such as Paxlovid and Eliquis, particularly in the U.S., as well as the continued impressive launch of Prevnar 20 for adults in the U.S. In addition, we continue to make progress toward our goal of adding at least $25 billion in risk adjusted 2030 revenues to Pfizer’s portfolio through business development.
Since we last reported earnings, we completed the acquisitions of Biohaven and Global Blood Therapeutics, each of which bring significant scientific breakthroughs to Pfizer and which present opportunities where we believe we can add great value.'' ''I look forward to continuing to execute on Pfizer’s strategies to deliver breakthroughs to patients and value to shareholders,'' Denton concluded. The stock was up by around 3% on Tuesday, trading at $47.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +7.85% 3 months: -3.50% Year-to-date: -18.80% 1 year: +5.50% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley: $50 Barclays: $44 SVB Leerink: $48 Wells Fargo: $55 Citigroup: $57 B of A Securities: $70 Pfizer is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $269.29 billion.
You can trade Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for October on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,059 cars last month – up by 174.3% year-over-year. The deliveries in October consisted of: 5,979 premium smart electric SUV’s 4,080 premium smart electric sedans Production and deliveries were impacted by supply chain issues and other constraints caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in certain parts of China, according to the company.
NIO has delivered a total of 259,563 electric vehicles as of October 31, 2022. The stock made some gains on Tuesday, up by around 2% at $9.93 a share. Shares of NIO have plummeted by over 75% in the past year.
Stock performance 1 month: -40.68% 3 month: -50.82% Year-to-date: -68.67% 1 year: -75.97% NIO price targets Morgan Stanley: $31 HSBC: $28 Goldman Sachs: $56 Barclays: $34 Mizuho: $42 Citigroup: $31.3 B of A Securities: $26 UBS: $32 Barclays: $19 NIO is the 22 nd largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $16.56 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TardingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) announced Q3 earnings results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The world’s largest aerospace company reported revenue that missed analyst expectations at $15.956 billion (up by 4% year-over-year) vs. $17.911 billion estimate. The company reported a loss per share of -$6.18 per share vs. $0.132 earnings per share expected. "We continue to make important strides in our turnaround and remain focused on our performance," Dave Calhoun, Boeing President, and CEO said in a press release following the announcement. "We generated strong cash in the quarter and are on a solid path to achieving positive free cash flow for 2022.
At the same time, revenue and earnings were significantly impacted by losses on our fixed-price defense development programs. We're squarely focused on maturing these programs, mitigating risks and delivering for our customers and their important missions. We remain in a challenging environment and have more work ahead to drive stability, improve our performance and ensure we're consistently delivering on our commitments.
Despite the challenges, I'm proud of our team and the progress we've made to strengthen our company," Calhoun concluded. Shares of Boeing took a hit on after the announcement of the latest results. The stock was down by around 3% at $140.85 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +6.50% 3 months: -8.95% Year-to-date: -29.41% 1 year: -31.21% Boeing price targets Credit Suisse: $98 Morgan Stanley: $233 Wells Fargo: $210 Benchmark: $200 RBC Capital: $200 JP Morgan: $188 Citigroup: $209 Boeing is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $83.94 billion. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The EURUSD is showing some signs of a potential short term break out on the daily and 4-hour time price charts. This is largely a technical breakout, although it is also supported by a shift in sentiment towards growth assets and away from the USD in the last week. Technical Analysis The daily cart shows a long term down trend with the price respecting the trend.
On the daily time frame, the price has broken through the trend line. In addition, the price has broken above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This represents a short-term support level and a good position for a trailing stop loss or hard stop loss.
Looking at the 4-hour chart provides a more direct profit target and entry trigger. The chart shows that the candle sticks are forming into what may become a flag. An entry based on the current price action may be triggered by a breakout of the flag past 1.000 which is also the parity level.
This level also presents as the neckline for a double bottom. This further indicates a potential bottom, or a reversal is about to take place. Using the 50-day Exponential moving average as the position for the stop loss at 0.9914, and the next resistance as a profit target at 1.0200 gives the trade yields a Risk Reward ratio of nearly 2.7.
With volatility surrounding the market being relatively high there is still risks with this trade and traders should be aware of potential macro factors that may impact on the trade.