Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
The EURAUD buoyed by a weaker Australian Dollar lighter lighter monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has seen the currency pair move with some momentum in recent days and weeks. The RBA came out in its most recent meeting and raised rates by an unexpectedly low 25 bps vs 50 bps. This helped equities and housing stability but pushed the AUD to very lows levels.
The Euro on the other hand has suffered with geopolitical conflicts and recessionary pressures that have hit major players in the Union. With Germany in particular suffering quite large inflationary issues putting severe pressure on the EUR. After to dipping to as low as 1.42 AUD in both April and August this year, the pair has been able to move back into the major range that the price has been holding since 2013, excluding the commencement of the pandemic.
Technical Analysis The weekly chart as discussed above highlight that this pair does not usually trend and if it does trend it tends not hold the trend for very long. Rather the price tends to hold a range with breaks of range usually the outcome of extreme economic events such as the GFC or the pandemic before retreating into the range. The weekly chart also indicates that the price may be ready to reverse back up as seen by the double bottom pattern that has formed.
The neckline needs to be broken by the price at 1.54 for the pattern to be confirmed. The question is whilst this price is showing signs of a reversal, the price is sitting just on a significant resistance area. The daily chart shows an interesting case for either a breakout or a breakdown.
Firstly, the price has so far not broken out completely and is still consolidating at the neckline. In addition, the price is overbought to a high level and on previous occasions when it was this overbought, it has fallen back down. However, it is possible that the RSI is also just consolidating and getting ready to breakout.
This chart needs a little bit more time to be sure of a direction, however a potential long target if it breaks out to the long side could be 1.60 and to the short side if it fails could be 1.42. With economic still to flow for both Australia and Europe the EURAUD is definitely one to keep an eye on.
Brexit 23rd June 2016 – the day the people of United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, it’s a day which will go down in the history and will always be remembered. The margin by which people voted to leave was not big (51.9% voted to leave, 48.1% voted to stay) but it will undoubtedly continue to have a big impact on the United Kingdom, European Union and the global financial markets. What does it mean to the UK economy?
Many leading economists before the referendum had been predicting an instant and significant impact on the UK economy and consumer confidence should the country leave the European Union, but so far, these predictions have not been accurate. Latest figures show that UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.7% between Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016 and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the preliminary estimate of GDP published on 26 January 2017. Upward revisions (due to later data received) within the manufacturing industries is the main reason (these revisions were first published as part of the Index of Production for December 2016 released on 10 February 2017).
UK GDP growth in Quarter 4 2016 saw a continuation of strong consumer spending which is in line with the Retail Sales Index for Quarter 4, which grew by 1.2% (published on 20 January 2017) and strong growth in the output of the services sector with a notable contribution in consumer-focused industries. In Quarter 4 2016, there has been a slowdown within business investment which fell by 1.0%, driven by subdued growth within the “ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment” assets. Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK source: www.ons.gov.uk Currency The pound fell to a to a 31-year low and was on course for its biggest one-day loss in history on the day the people of Britain voted to leave the European Union in June and has been steadily falling against the dollar since the vote.
When Theresa May announced that the UK would begin formal Brexit negations by the end of March, it did not do much to alleviate the concerns of investors about a ‘hard’ Brexit, negatively impacting Sterling once more. But what is keeping the Pound low? It’s uncertainty, uncertainty of how Brexit will turn out.
A notable portion of participants in the Forex market is made up of speculators and the consensus outlook they hold for a currency sometimes has a significant impact on its overall value, regardless of the impact from companies and individuals looking to move money for practical purposes. GBP/USD since the Brexit vote source: www.tradingview.com It is hard to predict to how, when or if, pound sterling will recover but there are some key things to keep an eye out for. > There could be a strong positive movement for pound sterling if the United Kingdom get a favourable exit deal with the European Union. > The Bank of England is not likely going to cut interest rates any further in the near term or put more money in the economy and that will be viewed as signs of confidence in the UK and will most likely make the pound more attractive. > UK Economic data will continue to have a significant impact on Sterling. If enough data suggests that the United Kingdom is in a strong position going into Brexit, for example if companies are continuing to hire and invest in the British economy and not planning to relocate to other EU countries, we should see renewed optimism in Sterling.
Meanwhile, stock markets have been strong since the Brexit vote. The FTSE100 closed at a record high at the end of 2016, up 14.4% during the year. FTSE100 since the Brexit vote Source: www.tradingview.com Key dates this month worth noting in the diary: Tuesday March 7 Deadline to pass the Brexit Bill - The May government wants the Lords to approve the Brexit bill by Tuesday March 7.
It will then need royal assent to become law. Thursday March 9 and Friday March 10 EU Summit: Should the bill pass in time, British Prime Minister May could decide to trigger Article 50 in Brussels. Friday March 31 The Prime Minister has publicly said that she plans to trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017.
Triggering Article 50 will be followed by the arduous two-year process of the UK's break up with the EU.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its Q3 2022 delivery numbers on Sunday. World’s largest automaker delivered a total of 343,830 cars (up by 42.49% year-over-year) in the third quarter – setting a new quarterly record. The deliveries in Q3 consisted of: 18,672 Model S/X 325,158 Model 3/Y The automaker produced 365,923 vehicles in Q3. ''Historically, our delivery volumes have skewed towards the end of each quarter due to regional batch building of cars.
As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks. In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter. These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination,'' the company said in the press release.
Tesla will report its Q3 financial results after the closing bell on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) chart Shares of Tesla were down by around 6% on Monday at $247.90 per share. Stock performance 1 month: -1.84% 3 month: +71% Year-to-date: -24.70% 1 year: +65% Tesla price targets JP Morgan: $153 Piper Sandler: $340 Deutsche Bank: $400 Wolfe Research: $360 Jefferies: $350 Morgan Stanley: $383 Wedbush: $360 Tesla is the 6 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $825.19 billion.
You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., GO Markets MT5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has surprised much of the market by raising the country's cash rate by just 25 basis points. With analysts expecting a more aggressive 50 bps hike, the smaller lift will provide relief to much of the country's housing market and equity market. RBA, Chairman, Phillip Lowe outlined how previous rate rises had already begun struggling with the previous rate rises.
International volatility has also become much higher with retirement funds in the UK needing to be bailed out by the Bank of England after the funds found themselves inundated with the liquidity issues due to spikes in yield on many of the UK government bonds that they were holding. With the global financial system so interconnected there was a very real chance that a trillion dollars’ worth of bonds would be exposed without intervention effecting far more then just the UK’s financial system. In addition, worries over both Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse also being in trouble with their risk of defaulting potentially increasing.
This had the RBA worried that the situation could turn very quickly in Australia and sparked the lower rate. With relatively low rates of inflation the RBA has had more flexibility to adjust the aggressiveness of its hikes as it has gone along and todays changes showed that. The bank still expects inflation for the year to be between 6-7 %.
In response to the hikes the AUD dropped sharply on the news falling by 0.52%. Australian equities saw a large jump increasing by 0.93% for the half an hour after the announcement. With inflation still at elevated levels, there is no guarantee that the lower rate hikes will continue.
I have recently written a piece on the weakening of the Great British Pound (GBP) just the other day, as it looks like the dollar seems to be king at present and getting stronger against all other top currencies around the world. Today is the Chinese Yuan in focus, yesterday was the Sterling pound, who’s your money on tomorrow? We will have to wait and see on that front, but lets quickly dive into why is the Chinese Yuan falling to record lows against the dollar?
The offshore yuan depreciated past 7.2 per dollar, sinking to its lowest levels since data on offshore trading became available in 2011, dragged down by a strong dollar amid expectations for more Federal Reserve rate hikes and a widespread risk aversion in the markets. The yuan also weakened despite efforts by authorities to arrest its slide which are so far having limited impact. In the latest developments, the People’s Bank of China raised the foreign exchange risk reserves for financial institutions when purchasing FX through currency forwards to 20% from the current zero starting on Sept. 28th, making it more expensive to bet against the local currency.
A gloomy domestic outlook also weighed on China’s currency, with Nomura and Goldman Sachs slashing their 2023 economic growth forecast for China sharply, predicting Beijing will stick to its strict zero-COVID strategy well into next year. China’s yuan recovered slightly after falling to a 14-year low against the $$$ Wednesday despite central bank efforts to stem the slide after U.S. interest rate hikes prompted traders to convert money into dollars in search of higher returns. At one point, the yuan fell to 7.2301 to the dollar, its lowest level since January 2008.
One yuan was worth about 13.8 cents, down 15% from its March high. As you can see below, the FEDs strategy has reinforced strength in the dollar, a currency that has been rising to records highs, is now contributing to economic pains in various jurisdictions around the world making more expensive for countries such as China, Japan and UK to name a few, to spend more on importing and making their debt even harder to manage, as they also try to keep on top of inflation by raising interest rates which in turn puts off investors who are looking for value in the market; followed by a run on certain currencies as seen with the GBP to bring it to parity (well almost) with the USD. The Dollar Against the World Currencies (As of 16:40 AEST 29/09/2022) There have been ample opportunities to get involved in the FX markets of late, if it’s not buying the dollar, it is to sell other currencies against it, but tread carefully markets are volatile and a sense of trading responsibly must be heeded.
If you would like to study the trends and take advantages of entry opportunities, you can do so by opening an MetaTrader trading CFD account with GO Markets here or find our contact details in the footer below. Sources: fortune.com, tradingeconomics.com
Natural Gas prices have had a volatile year to say the least. After finding multi decade highs on the back of geo-political volatility and record high inflation levels the price has seen an aggressive retracement. With the overall commodities market suffering a big drop as recessionary pressures have taken over and a resilient USD, Natural gas has seen a 30 per cent drop from its peak.
News about leaks in the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline and Russia's control over much of the rest of Europe's supply has seen an increase of volatility and with Europe entering winter soon and the surety of supply still on a knifes edge, the market remains volatile. Looking at the recent price action of Natural Gas, the long-term chart shows that the current price is sitting on a strong area of support at 6 USD. Not only is the price sitting on a strong area of support, the area also doubles as the 200-day average.
The weekly candle is a Doji showing indecision as buyers and sellers look to find the equilibrium price. By comparing both the RSI from the weekly and daily charts its can be observed that there is interesting divergence of patterns. On the weekly timeframe, the RSI is consolidating into a symmetrical triangle whilst the daily RSI shows a bounce off the oversold zone.
This may provide a clue as to which direction the price may go next. If the price continues to bounce off the oversold level, it may indicate a longer-term break on the weekly chart. This bounce would provide an obvious target for a reversal to the long side to the top of the range at 10 USD.
With general market volatility still quite high and commodities seeing aggressive moves, the next 6-12 months may provide some interesting trading opportunities for natural gas in both directions.