Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
US professional services company, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX), released financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the market open on Thursday. Revenue reached $1.258 billion (up by 6% year-over-year), which fell short of $1.268 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported at $1.08 per share (up by 9% year-over-year), slightly above estimate of $1.074 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Rochester, New York, United States Number of employees: 16,000 (2022) Industry: Business Process Outsourcing, human Capital Management Key people: B. Thomas Golisano (chairman), John Gibson (president & CEO), Efrain Rivera (senior VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We are pleased with our results for the second quarter and the first half of fiscal 2024, with total revenue growth of 6% and diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth through the first half of the fiscal year of 10%. The macro-economic environment remains stable for small and mid-sized businesses, who continue to face challenges in both the cost of and access to growth capital; and finding quality talent in the current labor market.
Our Small Business Employment Watch continues to show moderation in both job growth and wage inflation,'' John Gibson, CEO of the American company commented on the latest results. ''We continue to see demand for our HCM technology, HR and insurance solutions, as businesses struggle to comply with increasing regulations and a challenging HR landscape and labor market,'' Gibson concluded. Stock reaction The stock fell by around 6% on Thursday, trading at $119.72 a share – the lowest level since 28/11/23. Stock performance 1 month: +0.28% 3 months: +5.27% Year-to-date: +3.22% 1 year: +6.33% Paychex stock price targets Barclays: $126 UBS Group: $120 Argus: $130 Bank of America: $106 Morgan Stanley: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $130 TD Cowen: $131 Wedbush: $115 JP Morgan: $134 Robert W.
Baird: $126 Deutsche Bank: $116 Citigroup: $119 Jefferies Financial: $120 Paychex Inc. is the 419th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.07 billion. You can trade Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Paychex Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The world’s biggest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. Nike reported revenue of $13.388 billion for the quarter (up by 1% year-over-year and down by 1% on neutral currency basis), narrowly falling short of Wall Street estimate of $13.391 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter at $1.03 per share vs. estimate of $0.84 per share.
EPS was up by 21% from the year prior. Company overview Founded: 1964 Headquarters: Beaverton, Oregon, United States Number of employees: 3,700 (2023) Industry: Apparel, accessories, sports equipment Key people: Philip H. Knight (chairman emeritus), Mark Parker (executive chairman), John Donahoe (president and CEO), John Hoke III (chief design officer) CEO commentary "Our Q2 results demonstrated how we are getting back on our front foot in our key areas of innovation and growth.
This quarter showed strong execution by our team as we focus on our winning formula of innovative product, distinctive storytelling and differentiated marketplace experiences," CEO of Nike, John Donahoe, commented on the latest results. Stock reaction The stock was up by just under a 1% at the end of Thursday’s session at $122.53 a share. Share price fell by around 5% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced.
Stock performance 1 month: +13.47% 3 months: +33.70% Year-to-date: +4.66% 1 year: +4.93% Nike stock price targets Raymond James: $130 Telsey Advisory Group: $140 Royal Bank of Canada: $127 DZ Bank: $130 Citigroup: $135 Goldman Sachs: $139 Truist Financial: $108 Evercore ISI: $124 Deutsche Bank: $125 JP Morgan: $137 Barclays: $119 Morgan Stanley: $126 TD Cowen: $120 Nike Inc. is the 60th largest company in the world with a market cap of $186.35 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nike Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged over 1% against the USD, one of its biggest session gains of 2023 and seeing USDCHF hit lows not seen since SNB intervention back in 2015.
Price action seemed to be more CHF strength rather the USD weakness as CHF handily outperformed all other G10 currencies. USDCHF RSI reading also hit the most oversold level since the safe haven flows of the pandemic panic of March 2020. XAUUSD - Gold Safe haven flows also gave Gold a tailwind with XAUUSD breaching the major resistance at 2070 USD an ounce, which had held the Gold price in check for the last week.
A weaker USD, falling yields also bolstering the precious metal. 2070 remains the key level for now, if the bulls can establish this level as support, another run higher to test the all-time highs could be on the cards. USOUSD – Crude Oil WTI Crude Oil started Wednesday’s session with a rally after further attacks on tankers in the Red Sea sparked supply concerns. The rally fizzled later in the session demand fears after the weekly API report showed an unexpected build in crude inventories.
USOUSD forming a “death cross” (where the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200 day SMA) for the first time since September 2022, last time We saw this a significant decline in Oil Prices took place.
Risk on returned to global markets in Thursdays session with equities rebounding strongly on weak US data that refuelled hopes of a faster pace to the Feds rate cutting cycle come 2024. USD sold off sharply partly due to month-end flows ahead of the holidays but accelerated by a bis miss in Q3 US GDP which came in at 4.9% vs the expected 5.2%. This saw rate cut odds in March push above the 80% mark with yields and the Dollar tumbling as a result.
The Dollar Index (DXY) pushing below last weeks trough to new 5-month lows, also losing the 102 handle in the process. AUD outperformed after the weaker than expected US GDP reading and an upbeat market risk sentiment. AUDUSD poking its head above the psychological 0.68 for the first time since July before finding some resistance at the big figure.
The major resistance at 0.6900 the next big test to the upside if this rally continues. Gold pushed higher on the weaker USD and falling yields, XAUUSD again testing the resistance at 2047. The last break out of this level took gold to all-time highs a couple of weeks ago, making it a key level to watch for gold traders.
Ahead today the Feds preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index will be the main risk event for FX traders.
US food company, General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS), reported its latest financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the US open on Wednesday. Revenue reached $5.139 billion for the quarter, falling short of analyst estimate of $5.354 billion. Revenue was down by 2% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.25 per share vs. $1.156 per share expected. EPS was up by 14% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: June 20, 1928 Headquarters: Golden Valley, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 32,500 (2022) Industry: Food processing Key people: Jeffrey Harmening (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary "While we saw a slower-than-expected volume recovery in the second quarter amid a continued challenging consumer landscape, we generated bottom-line growth thanks primarily to strong HMM cost savings," CEO of General Mills, Jeffrey Harmening, highlighted the challenges the company faced in the quarter. "We’re adapting our plans to the evolving consumer environment and staying focused on driving long-term growth, with a priority on winning through innovation, brand building, and in-store execution.
At the same time, we’re stepping up our HMM performance and further eliminating disruption-related costs in the supply chain. For the full year, we’ve revised our topline outlook to account for a slower volume recovery, narrowed our profit and EPS expectations within our original guidance ranges, and maintained our outlook for strong free cash flow conversion," Harmening added. Stock reaction Shares of General Mills were down by around 3% on Wednesday after the latest earnings report.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.25% 3 months: -1.76% Year-to-date: -22.83% 1 year: -24.19% General Mills stock price targets Piper Sandler: $76 Evercore ISI: $72 HSBC: $74 Royal Bank of Canada: $76 Morgan Stanley: $58 Mizuho: $70 Goldman Sachs: $61 JP Morgan: $61 TD Cowen: $70 Deutsche Bank: $77 Wells Fargo: $70 General Mills Inc. is the 487th largest company in the world with a market cap of $37.64 billion. You can trade General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: General Mills Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The World's second largest courier company, FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX), released its latest financial results for second quarter of fiscal year 2024 after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. The US company fell short of estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter. Revenue reached $22.2 billion vs. $22.356 billion expected.
Revenue was down by 2.6% vs. the same period a year prior. EPS reported at $3.99 per share (up by 25.47% year-over-year) vs. $4.194 per share estimate. Company overview Founded: May 5, 1971 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 520,000 (2023) Industry: E-commerce, services, transportation Key people: Frederick W.
Smith (Executive Chairman), Raj Subramaniam (President and CEO) CEO commentary 'FedEx has delivered an unprecedented two consecutive quarters of operating income growth and margin expansion even with lower revenue, clear evidence of the progress we are making on our transformation as we navigate an uncertain demand environment,'' Raj Subramaniam, CEO of FedEx, said in a press release. 'We are moving with speed to make our network more efficient while delivering outstanding service to our customers through the peak season with the fastest Ground network in the industry. I am confident in our strategy as we make our global network more flexible, efficient, and intelligent,' Subramaniam concluded. Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.68% at the end of trading on Tuesday at $280 a share.
The stock price plummeted by around 7% in the after-hours trading as results were announced. Stock performance 1 month: +9.43% 3 months: +12% Year-to-date: +61.66% 1 year: +70.37% FedEx stock price targets TD Cowen: $293 Stifel Nicolaus: $285 Susquehanna: $315 HSBC: $330 Loop Capital: $275 BMO Capital Markets: $290 Deutsche Bank: $295 Citigroup: $300 Wells Fargo: $280 Bank of America: $330 UBS Group: $323 Morgan Stanley: $205 FedEx Corporation is the 231st largest company in the world with a market cap of $70.39 billion. You can trade FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: FedEx Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap