Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
USD saw weakness in Wednesday’s session with a risk on equity market and only a marginal move higher in yields weighing on the Greenback ahead of today’s key US CPI report. There was little in the way of major US data releases but some hawkish leaning comments late in the session from the Fed’s Williams stemmed losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY) did make another attempt to breach the 102.57 resistance, but for the 5 th time this year was again rejected, this will be a key level to watch over todays CPI report.
EUR moved higher with EURUSD heading into the APAC session at highs of around 1.0970. EUR was supported by comments from the ECB's De Guindos who warned the rapid pace of disinflation seen in 2023 is likely to slow down in 2024 and Schnabel who said it is too early to discuss rate cuts. JPY was the G10 underperformer after Japanese wage data came in much softer than expected, throwing cold water on expectations of the BOJ normalizing rates.
USDJPY following the US10Y-JP10Y rate differential higher and breaching the psychological 145 level. GBP also saw gains vs USD, taking advantage of a weaker USD and a risk-on session in equities. BoE Governor Bailey spoke in the UK session, pushing back on rate cut expectations while stressing the importance of returning inflation to target.
Ahead today the much-awaited US CPI report which will shape market expectations of the Feds next move and should get FX markets moving.
US producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits, Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), announced Q3 fiscal 2024 financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday. The company reported revenue of $2.471 billion for the quarter, which fell short of $2.538 billion expected. Earnings per share topped analyst estimates at $3.19 per share vs. estimate of $3.014 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Victor, New York, United States Number of employees: 10,700 (2023) Industry: Beverages Key people: Rob Sands (Chairman), Richard Sands (Vice Chairman), Bill Newlands (CEO), Garth Hankinson (CFO) CFO commentary "The continued strong performance of our Beer portfolio in Q3 has given us the confidence to raise our full-year operating income outlook for that Business. In addition, we now expect higher enterprise operating cash flow and free cash flow in Fiscal 2024. We remain committed to our disciplined and balanced approach to deploying that cash with a consistent focus on supporting our investment grade balance sheet, steady cash returns to shareholders through our dividend, opportunistic share repurchases, brewing capacity investments in our Beer Business, and tuck-in M&A to fill portfolio gaps," Garth Hankinson, CFO of Constellation Brands, commented on the latest results.
Stock reactions Shares of Constellation Brands were up by just over 2% after posting the latest results on Friday, trading at $247.53 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.58% 3 months: +4.62% Year-to-date: +2.39% 1 year: +15.54% Constellation Brands stock price targets JP Morgan: $301 Jefferies Financial Group: $292 Truist Financial: $260 Barclays: $280 HSBC: $290 Wedbush: $300 Wells Fargo: $285 Goldman Sachs: $305 Deutsche Bank: $243 Royal Bank of Canada: $295 TD Cowen: $300 Morgan Stanley: $305 Constellation Brands Inc. is the 387th largest company in the world with a market cap of $45.46 billion. You can trade Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Constellation Brands Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Since the start of 2024, the AUDUSD has reversed from the resistance area of 0.6870, a high formed in June and July 2023. The main factor leading to the AUDUSD trading lower is primarily due to the recovery in strength of the DXY. The AUDUSD currently trades along the support area and round number level of 0.67.
On Wednesday this week, the Australian CPI y/y data is expected to be released at 4.5%. While this is still above the RBA’s inflation target level of 2-3%, evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation from the previous release of 4.9% is likely to signal some comfort to the overall rate path for the RBA. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at 4.35% during the December meeting, a decision which saw the AUDUSD trade lower briefly.
Further downside on the AUDUSD can be expected if the CPI data is released at or lower than 4.5%, with the Ichimoku cloud and the RSI also indicating bearish sentiment for the AUDUSD. Look for the price to break through the bullish trendline and the price level of 0.6650 as a confirmation of further downside, with the next immediate support level at 0.6535 and the major support level at 0.63
US telecommunications giant, AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), released its latest financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The company reported revenue of $32.022 billion for Q4 2023 vs. $31.457 billion. Revenue was up by 2.2% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimate of $0.557 per share at $0.54 per share for the quarter, down by 12.96% year-over-year. Full year revenue reached $122.4 billion, up by 1.4% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1885 Headquarters: Whitacre Tower, Dallas, Texas, United States Number of employees: 160,700 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications, Technology Key people: William Kennard (Chairman), John Stankey (CEO) CEO commentary ''We accomplished exactly what we said we would in 2023, delivering sustainable growth and consistent business performance, resulting in full-year free cash flow of $16.8 billion, ahead of our raised guidance.
As we advance our lead in converged connectivity, we will continue to scale our best-in-class 5G and fiber networks to meet customers’ growing demand for seamless, ubiquitous broadband, and drive durable growth for shareholders,'' John Stankey, CEO of AT&T, said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.97% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $16.68 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +1.71% 1 month: +0.66% 3 months: +9.87% Year-to-date: -0.54% 1 year: -18.27% AT&T stock price targets Oppenheimer: $21 Wells Fargo & Company: $20 Royal Bank of Canada: $30 Citigroup: $18 Morgan Stanley: $19 Scotiabank: $18.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 17 Deutsche Bank: $22 Barclays: $17 Moffett Nathanson: $17 HSBC: $19 TD Cowen: $23 Raymond James: $25 Cowen: $25 Credit Suisse Group: $19 AT&T Inc. is the 115th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.33 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AT&T Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) announced Q4 2023 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The American IT and consulting company reported revenue of $17.381 billion for the last quarter of 2023 (up by 4% year-over-year), narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $17.289 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.87 per share vs. $3.794 per share expected.
EPS was up by 8% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1991 Headquarters: 1 Orchard Road, Armonk, New York, United States Number of employees: 288,300 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Arvind Krishna (Chairman & CEO), Gary Cohn (Vice Chairman), James Kavanaugh (Senior Vice President & CFO) CEO and CFO commentary ''In the fourth quarter, we grew revenue in all of our segments, driven by continued adoption of our hybrid cloud and AI offerings. Client demand for AI is accelerating and our book of business for watsonx and generative AI roughly doubled from the third to the fourth quarter,'' said Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM said in press release. "For the year, revenue growth was in line with our expectations, and we exceeded our free cash flow objective.
Based on the strength of our portfolio and demonstrated track record of innovation, for 2024 we expect revenue performance in line with our mid-single digit model and about $12 billion in free cash flow,” Krishna looked at the year ahead. James Kavanaugh, CFO of the company, also reflected on the company’s performance during the last quarter of 2023: ''We again demonstrated the fundamental strengths of our business in the fourth quarter through solid, broad-based revenue growth, continued profit margin expansion, increased productivity gains and strong cash generation.'' ''Throughout 2023, those strengths enabled us to increase our investment in R&D and talent, and complete nine acquisitions to bolster our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, all while continuing to return value to shareholders through our dividend,'' Kavanaugh added. Stock reaction IBM shares were flat at the end of Wednesday at $173.93 as investors were awaiting the latest results.
Shares rose by around 5% in the after-hours trading. All eyes will be on the stock at the open on Thursday. Stock performance 5 day: +4.73% 1 month: +6.41% 3 months: +26.88% Year-to-date: +6.35% 1 year: +23.56% International Business Machines Corporation stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $183 Evercore ISI: $200 Jefferies Financial Group: $180 Societe Generale: $143 Bank of America: $170 Wedbush: $140 BMO Capital Markets: $155 Royal Bank of Canada: $179 Morgan Stanley: $130 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $145 Credit Suisse Group: $162 Citigroup: $145 Moffett Nathanson: $140 International Business Machines Corporation is the 75th largest company in the world with a market cap of $158.81 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: International Business Machines Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported the latest delivery numbers for Q4 2023 on Tuesday. World’s largest electric vehicle company produced around 495k cars during the quarter. Deliveries reached 484k.
The company produced a total of 1.85 million vehicles last year – up by 35% year-over-year. Total deliveries reached 1.81 million – up by 38% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1/7/2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The stock was little changed on Tuesday, down by 0.02% at $248.42 a share.
Tesla will announced Q4 2023 financial results after the US market closing bell on 24/1/2024. Stock performance 1 month:+ 5.45% 3 months: -1.26% 6 months: -10.67% 1 year: +101.67% Tesla price targets Morgan Stanley: $380 Wedbush: $350 Royal Bank of Canada: $300 Guggenheim: $132 Deutsche Bank: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $210 HSBC: $146 Wells Fargo: $250 Citigroup: $255 Piper Sandler: $290 UBS Group: $266 JP Morgan: $135 Truist Financial: $243 Barclays: $260 Goldman Sachs: $275 TD Cowen: $200 Mizuho: $330 Tesla is the 8th largest company in the world with a market cap of $789.70 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat