Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
USD was offered in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) printing a low of 102.060 ahead of the last major economic release for the year in Fridays Core PCE reading. Hawkish leaning comments from the Feds Bostic that he only sees two Fed rate cuts in 2024, less than the Fed median of three and well under the market pricing of six, failing to lend much support to the greenback. JPY was the obvious FX underperformer, seeing USDJPY hit a high of 144.95, just failing to breach the psychological 145.00 level before retracing somewhat.
JPY took a hit on the BoJ meeting where the central bank stood pat and unanimously left its rates and YCC unchanged. There was some pricing in on this pair of a hawkish surprise from the BoJ which didn’t materialise. AUD and NZD were the G10 outperformers.
AUDUSD benefitting from improved risk sentiment and the December RBA Minutes which suggested the Board considered whether to hike by 25bps or keep rates steady, NZDUSD caught a tailwind from upbeat NZ trade data. CAD strengthened on the hotter-than-expected inflation data, where the year on year figure came in at 3.4% a beat of the expected 3.3%. CAD also receiving support from a rally in crude oil prices on the back of Red Sea tensions affecting oil transportation.
USDCAD dropping to 5-month lows and seeing the daily RSI move into extreme oversold territory.
The US Dollar has continued its year end decline after the holiday break in thin volume. Traders still holding onto the view of a dovish Fed come 2024 seeing yields also drop creating a headwind for the Greenback. AUDUSD The Aussie pushed has pushed higher this week, taking advantage of a weak USD and a risk on environment.
AUDUSD breaking the resistance and key psychological level of 0.68 in Tuesday’s session and entering the Resistance zone from 0.6800 -0.6900 where rallies have faltered previously in 2023. The AU 10 and US 10 yield differential has also found some resistance at its current level and could temper further gains in this pair, AUDUSD looking like it has got a little ahead of itself at these levels. XAUUSD Gold also continued to grind higher in thin holiday volume, a weak USD and falling yields making the non-yielding asset look more attractive to speculators.
XAUUSD trading at the key level of 2070 USD an ounce that gold traders should be keeping a close eye on. The last time XAUUSD broke this level was December 4 when a surge in price saw gold hit all-time highs. Currently XAUUSD has found resistance here and attempts to breach have been rejected, a push through could see another run to re-test those highs, a hold of the resistance and a leg lower in XAUUSD looks likely.
FX markets enter the new year with a continuing backdrop of a weaker USD as traders bet on a Fed pivot in the first half of the year. That narrative could be tested later in the week with some key US manufacturing and employment data, including the monthly Non-farm payrolls. Key levels look to be tested this week in different FX pairs with AUDUSD and Gold both being interesting examples.
AUDUSD – Gone too far, too fast? AUSUSD has had a stellar run since late October, benefitting from the risk-on environment and following equity markets higher. A weaker USD and falling US yields as traders’ position for a Fed pivot also being a strong tailwind.
AUDUSD is now sitting in the 2023 “resistance zone” where upward momentum has faltered previously. Also of note is an extreme overbought signal from the daily RSI and a growing gap between the AUDUSD price and the AU 10-year - US 10-year yield differential. Combined, these three factors could see AUDUSD upside capped for now, this week’s Non-Farm payroll will be the main figure to watch, a strong report could see traders pare back somewhat on their Fed pivot bets, pushing this pair lower.
XAUUSD – Gold XAUUSD broke the resistance level at 2070 USD an ounce, but the bulls were unable to establish it as support and the gold price quickly retraced back below. Currently XAUSD is again flirting with this key level, where the bulls and the bears have been fighting it out. 2070 remains the level to watch this week, with US data that could certainly move yields and the USD, another push through and a hold as support could see gold make another attempt at all-time highs, a hold as resistance and the gold bull run could be over for now.
American company that specializes in the manufacturing and sale of workwear and uniforms, Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ: CTAS), announced the latest financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. Cintas reported revenue of $2.377 billion for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 vs. $2.341 billion expected. Revenue was up by 9.3% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.61 per share, also topping analyst estimate of $3.489 per share. EPS was up by 15.7% vs. the same period last year. Company overview Founded: 1929 Headquarters: Mason, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 44,500 (2023) Industry: Service Key people: Todd Schneider (CEO), Scott D.
Farmer (Executive Chairman), Mike Thompson (Executive Vice President and CAO) CEO commentary "We are pleased with our second quarter fiscal 2024 financial results. Each of our operating segments continue to execute at a high level, leading to robust revenue growth of 9.3%, high operating margin of 21.0% and diluted EPS growth of 15.7%. This strong execution is the result of the exceptional dedication of our employee-partners.
Whether it's image, safety, cleanliness or compliance, we have innovative products and services to help businesses across North America stay focused on the work that matters most," CEO of Cintas, Todd Schneider, said in a letter to shareholders. Schneider also announced that the company is raising its financial guidance for the full fiscal year: "We are increasing our full fiscal year financial guidance. We are raising our annual revenue expectations from a range of $9.40 billion to $9.52 billion to a range of $9.48 billion to $9.56 billion and our diluted EPS from a range of $14.00 to $14.45 to a range of $14.35 to $14.65." Stock reaction The latest results had a very positive impact on the stock price on Thursday.
Shares were up by over 4%, trading at $580.77 a share – the highest ever level. Stock performance 1 month: +5.48% 3 months: +16.02% Year-to-date: +29.58% 1 year: +29.33% Cintas stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $590 Truist Financial: $625 Citigroup: $530 Robert W. Baird: $540 Bank of America: $565 Stifel Nicolaus: $526 Royal Bank of Canada: $525 Barclays: $550 Wells Fargo: $500 UBS Group: $575 JP Morgan: $540 Morgan Stanley: $441 Cintas Corporation is the 288th largest company in the world with a market cap of $59.75 billion.
You can trade Cintas Corporation and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Cintas Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
British-American cruise line company, Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL), reported fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings results on Wednesday. Carnival reported revenue of $5.397 billion Q4 (a new quarterly record) vs. $5.295 billion expected. The company reported loss per share of -$0.07, which was less than -$0.126 loss per share expected.
Full year revenue reached $21.6 billion – a new all-time record high. Company overview Founded: 1972 (as Carnival Cruise Line, now a subsidiary), 1993 (as Carnival Corporation), 2003 (as Carnival Corporation & plc) Headquarters: Miami, Florida, United States (Operations: Doral, Florida) and Southampton, United Kingdom Number of employees: 150,000 (2022) Industry: Hospitality, tourism Key people: Josh Weinstein (CEO) CEO commentary "We ended the year on a high note with another record-breaking quarter that exceeded expectations and achieved positive full year adjusted net income. In fact, we consistently outperformed in all four quarters of the year, buoyed by a strengthening demand environment across all our brands," Josh Weinstein, CEO of the company commented on the solid results in a press release. "Thanks to a strong second half of 2023, we are already tracking ahead of our plan to achieve SEA Change, our three-year financial targets calling for the highest adjusted ROIC and adjusted EBITDA per ALBD in nearly two decades.
Based on our 2024 guidance, we expect to deliver another big step forward, positioning us more than halfway toward realizing all our 2026 SEA Change targets. With nearly two-thirds of 2024 on the books already, we are well positioned to obtain another year of record revenues and adjusted EBITDA," Weinstein added. Stock reaction The stock rose by over 5% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since 10/7/23 at $19.09 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +32% 3 months: +32.18% Year-to-date: +136.97% 1 year: +142.39% Carnival stock price targets Citigroup: $23 Truist Financial: $15 UBS Group: $20 Morgan Stanley: $11 Barclays: $21 Argus: $21 JP Morgan: $18 Deutsche Bank: $15 Bank of America: $20 Wells Fargo: $9 Credit Suisse: $18 Carnival Corporation is the 743rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $25.02 billion. You can trade Carnival Corporation and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Carnival Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Irish-American professional services company, Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN), announced Q1 FY24 financial results before the opening bell in the US on Tuesday. The company reported revenue of $16.224 billion for the three months that ended on 30/11/23, which was narrowly above analyst estimate of $16.169 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.27 per share vs. $3.144 per share expected.
Revenue and EPS for the quarter were up by 3% and 6.1% year-over-year, respectively. Company overview Founded: 1989 Headquarters: Dublin, Ireland Number of employees: 733,000 (2023) Industry: Professional services, information technology consulting Key people: Julie Sweet (Chair and CEO) CEO commentary 'I am pleased that we delivered on our commitments this quarter while strategically investing at scale for future growth. Our deep and trusted client relationships are again reflected in the 30 clients with quarterly bookings of more than $100 million.
And we continue to lead our industry in Gen AI – the great accelerator of reinvention – with over $450 million in new bookings. I am incredibly grateful to the 743,000 people of Accenture, who are steadfastly dedicated to helping our clients achieve their ambition to grow and thrive in the years ahead,' CEO of the Dublin based company, Julie Sweet, said in a letter to shareholders. Stock reaction The stock was pretty much flat on Tuesday after the latest results were announced.
Shares were down by 0.10%, trading at $341.52 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +3.33% 3 months: +7.54% Year-to-date: +27.88% 1 year: +30.30% Accenture stock price targets Wedbush: $360 Redburn Atlantic: $410 UBS Group: $333 Robert W. Baird: $322 TD Cowen: $300 Piper Sandler: $300 BMO Capital Markets: $350 Royal Bank of Canada: $340 Citigroup: $358 Morgan Stanley: $356 Barclays: $390 JP Morgan: $341 Accenture plc is the 47th largest company in the world with a market cap of $213.99 billion.
You can trade Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Accenture plc, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap