The US$100 Brent playbook: 4 stocks and the levels that matter
4 Energy Stocks to Watch | GO Markets
Market outlook
Before Brent hits US$100, look around
Brent has already pushed through US$95. So before the market starts obsessing over US$100, it is worth looking at what is happening underneath the headline.
On 2 September, fresh US strikes on Iranian targets were followed by Iranian retaliation, putting the Strait of Hormuz back at the centre of the oil market and renewing fears of energy-driven inflation.
But higher crude does not lift every energy stock equally.
Upstream exploration and production (E&P) companies such as Karoon Energy, Woodside and Devon have more direct exposure to higher realised oil prices, although costs, hedging and production still matter. Refiners face a different equation, where margins depend on the spread between crude costs and refined-product prices.
Then there are services names such as SLB. Their exposure can come later if sustained oil prices encourage producers to increase capital expenditure (capex).
So whether Brent reaches US$100 or not, the question is the same: where is the oil-price exposure actually sitting?
When Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude move sharply, energy stocks can respond very differently depending on commodity exposure, hedging and capex sensitivity.
[For traders who navigated the sudden VIX spikes during August, navigating headline-driven volatility is familiar territory.]
Here are 4 upstream and services stocks to watch while Brent remains elevated. The levels below are technical reference points, not predictions. Company news, currency moves and broader market conditions can also influence price action.
1.
Karoon Energy Ltd
ASX: KAR
Technical observation: Constructive above the A$1.70 pivot level. Karoon Energy maintains a constructive technical structure on intraday timeframes following a bounce from key moving average support. Momentum remains intact above the A$1.70 pivot, with upper resistance zones near A$1.85 and A$1.92.
Karoon's limited hedging can increase its sensitivity to global energy movements, particularly Brent crude (UKOIL). Company-specific factors can still drive the share price independently of oil.
Scenario 1: Brent holds above US$92.00
If Brent holds above US$92.00 amid ongoing supply concerns, Karoon's exposure to spot pricing could support momentum. The technical focus may shift to A$1.85, with A$2.00 as the next upper reference level if the move extends.
Scenario 2: Pullback into US$88.30 to US$91.50
If Brent pulls back into the US$88.30 to US$91.50 range while markets assess supply and inventory data, Karoon may remain range-bound between A$1.70 and A$1.85.
Scenario 3: Break below US$88.30
If OPEC+ production signals or easing supply concerns contribute to Brent falling below US$88.30, higher volatility could bring the A$1.70 pivot and A$1.65 support into focus.
Scenario 4: Sustained breakdown below US$85.00
A sustained decline below US$85.00, particularly if linked to weaker global demand, could shift the technical bias towards lower support levels.
Be ready for energy-session volatility
Build scenarios and review position sizing as liquidity and momentum shift.
Technical observation: Constructive above the A$32.50 pivot level. Woodside displays a constructive technical pattern on intraday timeframes following a bounce from key support. Momentum remains intact above the A$32.50 pivot, with upper resistance zones near A$33.80 and A$34.50.
As a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer, Woodside's sentiment can reflect both global LNG demand and broader crude market stability.
Scenario 1: Global supply shock, Brent above US$92.00
If Brent holds above US$92.00 as global supply concerns remain elevated, WDS could test resistance around A$33.80. A$34.50 remains the next upper reference level if momentum extends.
Scenario 2: Energy market consolidation
If energy prices consolidate as markets reassess supply risks and the broader macro outlook—still digesting recent Fed policy shifts—Woodside may remain range-bound between A$31.80 and A$33.80.
Scenario 3: Sector-wide pullback
A pullback in global energy markets, potentially driven by easing supply concerns or LNG oversupply, could bring the A$32.50 pivot and A$31.80 support into focus.
Scenario 4: Sharp Australian dollar weakness
If the Australian dollar weakens sharply against the US dollar, Woodside's US dollar-denominated earnings profile could provide some offset. Broader risk-off conditions could still pressure shares towards lower support levels.
3.
Devon Energy Corp.
NYSE: DVN
Technical observation: Constructive above the US$48.50 pivot level. Devon Energy maintains a constructive technical structure on intraday timeframes following a bounce from key moving average support. Momentum remains intact above the US$48.50 pivot, with upper resistance zones near US$50.20 and US$51.50.
Devon pays a fixed quarterly dividend. Commodity prices and free cash flow can still influence sentiment, but higher WTI prices do not automatically translate into higher dividends.
Scenario 1: WTI holds above US$88.00
If WTI holds above US$88.00, stronger crude pricing could support free cash flow expectations. Technically, the focus could shift above US$50.20 towards US$52.80.
Scenario 2: Pullback into US$84.50 to US$87.50
If WTI pulls back into the US$84.50 to US$87.50 range while markets assess US inventory and macro outlook data, Devon may remain range-bound between US$48.50 and US$50.20.
Scenario 3: Break below US$84.00
If Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, easing supply concerns or softer US labour data contribute to WTI falling below US$84.00, higher volatility could bring the US$48.50 pivot and US$47.50 support into focus.
Scenario 4: Sustained breakdown below US$80.00
A sustained decline below US$80.00 amid weaker US growth expectations could weigh on free cash flow expectations and shift the technical focus towards US$46.00.
4.
SLB
NYSE: SLB
Technical observation: Constructive above the US$56.00 pivot level. SLB displays a recovering technical pattern on intraday timeframes following a test of key support. Momentum is seeking stability above the US$56.00 pivot, with upper resistance zones near US$58.50 and US$60.00.
As a global energy technology and services provider, SLB can react differently from upstream producers. Its exposure depends partly on E&P capex decisions, which may respond with a lag if higher crude prices persist.
Scenario 1: E&P capex expansion signals
If Brent holds above US$90 and upstream producers signal higher drilling budgets, momentum could bring the US$58.50 and US$60.00 reference levels into focus.
Scenario 2: Wait-and-see consolidation
If the broader energy sector consolidates while producers assess whether higher crude prices are sustainable, SLB may remain range-bound between US$54.50 and US$58.50.
Scenario 3: Upstream pullback
A rapid pullback in crude prices driven by demand concerns could weigh on expectations for new drilling activity and bring the US$56.00 pivot and US$54.50 support into focus.
Scenario 4: Sharp macro contraction
If global credit conditions tighten sharply and constrain financing for major drilling projects, oilfield services stocks could face selling pressure. US$52.80 remains the lower reference level in this scenario.
Follow global commodity & energy volatility
Stay close to macro developments, crude movements and key technical levels.
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here. Any references to Australian or international shares, sectors, indices, ETFs, crypto-related stocks or other instruments are provided for market commentary and watchlist purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or adopt any investment strategy. International markets may involve additional risks, including currency fluctuations, regulatory differences, market structure differences, reduced liquidity and higher volatility. Company-specific, sector-specific and macroeconomic risks may also affect performance.
Commentary on geopolitical developments, economic data, central bank decisions, earnings, policy changes and other global or financial market events is based on information available at the time of publication and may change without notice. Such events can lead to sudden market moves, price gaps, reduced liquidity, wider spreads and increased volatility, particularly in leveraged products such as CFDs. Forward-looking statements, expectations and scenario analysis are inherently uncertain and should not be relied on as guarantees of future market behaviour or outcomes.
Three of the world’s most influential energy authorities published their outlooks within days of each other in mid-August 2026. Read together, they show a market shaped more by geopolitics than by demand, though they diverge sharply on how quickly things could normalise.
