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Turkish Lira: Policy pause and MSCI risk weigh – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists report expectations that Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will hold rates at 37% on Thursday versus consensus for a 100bp cut to 36%. They cite softer growth and liquidity strains versus sticky inflation expectations as reasons for caution. They flag Governor comments on allowing Lira weakness, limited inflation pass-through, and new MSCI-related equity market risks alongside a sharp Borsa Istanbul 100 decline.
FXStreet Insights Team
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October 19, 2026
Euro: Bullish tone persists against US Dollar despite French risks - Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is underperforming as French protests weigh on local assets and widen spreads versus Germany.
Canadian Dollar: CPI weighs on outlook against US Dollar – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists see limited scope for a sustained Canadian Dollar (CAD) rally after softer-than-expected September inflation data, despite hawkish signals from the Bank of Canada (BoC). They expect the next BoC rate hike in Q1 2027 and favour fading CAD strength through CAD/MXN.
Euro remains on the back foot as France unrest dents sentiment
The Euro (EUR) trades on the back foot on Monday as political concerns in France weigh on the currency, helping the US Dollar (USD) pause last week’s correction. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1215, down 0.21% on the day.
Japanese Yen: Range-bound as BoJ stays cautious – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman's Ellias Haddad expects Japan’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher but remain below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2026 projection, limiting pressure for rapid tightening.
United Kingdom: Closer EU ties back in focus – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Christopher Graham discusses how Prime Minister Burnham is reopening debate on the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU ahead of next month’s UK-EU summit. Options range from closer cooperation within Labour’s red lines to potentially rejoining the customs union, single market or EU. Public regret over Brexit and evolving EU industrial policy are strengthening arguments for reintegration.
United States: October inflation seen cooling – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir project that US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise 0.30% month-on-month in October 2026, slowing from September’s 0.65% gain, with gasoline and food still contributing. They expect core CPI to increase 0.21% and translate into a 0.24% rise in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, as core goods and services inflation moderate and shelter cools.
Canadian Dollar recovery stalls after inflation falls short of expectations
USD/CAD pauses its decline on Monday after the Canadian Dollar (CAD) briefly strengthened to its highest level in a month at the weekly open.
Oil: Geopolitics drive price swings – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily notes Oil prices surged as reports of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hit sentiment, before easing after President Trump waived Graham Act sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy. The analysts highlight that potential future sanctions on major buyers of Russian crude and gas could significantly disrupt trade and keep Oil volatility elevated.
Indian Rupee: Intervention concerns shape outlook – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists note USD/INR remains below 95 in Asia after a 1.9% rally last week, supported by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) measures for Oil importers and speculation curbs. They highlight reported US Dollar (USD) selling by state-run banks and warns RBI’s direct supply to Oil companies could be constrained. FX reserves have dropped sharply and Indian Rupee (INR) shorts in the Reuters poll are at multi‑month highs.