Technical analysis

Societe Generale's strategists note that the INR has rallied further, with USD/INR looking to break below the 95 handle as the RBI intensifies its FX defense. The central bank extended FX curbs to GIFT City and broadened use of risk reserves.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by higher Oil prices, firm US yields and resilient Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, but not yet breaking out of its recent range. They note markets are focused on energy, US inflation and earnings, with a decisive USD move likely requiring a meaningful upside surprise in core CPI. The base case is for a supported but range-bound USD.

ING’s Francesco Pesole writes that EUR/USD is moderately undervalued versus short-term fundamentals, reflecting a persistent France-related risk premium that could widen if French bonds sell off further. He sees a challenging backdrop for Euro bulls, expects a possible test of 1.110, and notes that ING has revised its EUR/USD forecast down to 1.13 for the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur explains that the Reserve Bank of Australia is increasingly focused on high inflation, with trimmed-mean inflation above its 2–3% target band for over a year.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY continues to grind higher as wide US‑Japan yield differentials weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Intraday, the pair is expected to hold within 158.20–158.80.

Private-sector hiring in the US has gained some pace in late September. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 24.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending September 26.

Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass, authored by Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, highlights how El Niño 2026-2027 could constrain copper output in the African Copperbelt.

EUR/GBP reverses earlier gains on Tuesday as fiscal and political concerns in France limit the Euro’s (EUR) upside, while the technical picture also suggests sellers remain dominant.

MUFG’s Michael Wan analyses recent Reserve Bank of India actions and their impact on the Indian Rupee. He notes that RBI’s new FX and liquidity measures have sharply strengthened spot USD/INR, but also pushed stress into forwards, offshore NDFs and bonds.