Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Since March 2023, the GBPUSD had been trading higher as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) maintained along their path to continue raising rates, as they battled to bring inflation down to their 2-3% target level. As the DXY recovered in strength, this led the GBPUSD to reverse from the high of 1.3130, trading down toward the lower bound of the bullish channel, along the 1.28 price level. Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in July had a signaled a slowdown of inflation growth to 7.9%, this is still well above the BoE’s target level and significantly higher, compared to the other major economies.
At the upcoming meeting on 3rd August, the BoE is expected to raise rates by 25bps, a fourteenth successive tightening, taking rates to 5.25% the highest since December 2007. However, it cannot be ruled out that the BoE could further surprise markets with a 50bps rate hike, similar to its actions in June. At the upcoming meeting on 3rd August, the BoE is expected to raise rates by 25bps, a fourteenth successive tightening, taking rates to 5.25% the highest since December 2007.
However, it cannot be ruled out that the BoE could further surprise markets with a 50bps rate hike, similar to its actions in June.
Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside. This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4 th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI. Unsurprisingly a rapid fall in AUDUSD was also a consequence of this market repricing, after finding some support at the 50% retracement level of the June low to highs this week, AUDUSD pushed lower to test the 618% Fibonacci level before finding some buyers.
These two levels will be worth watching, whether AUDUSD can regain and again find support at the 50% retracement or that level now becomes resistance and puts the 61.8% retracement level in danger of giving way.
USD was firmly in the red in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) having it’s largest drop since mid-July. A rally in DXY during the Asian and early European session dramatically reversed after big misses on the JOLTS report and consumer confidence saw a dovish repricing in rates markets and a risk-on back in charge. Stocks rallied and the Dollar tumbled throughout the rest of the session.
DXY hitting lows of 103.36, breaking through the minor R/S level of 103.60 after testing the major resistance zone of the May/June/August highs. DXY now sitting on its upward trendline which has been in play since mid-July, which so far has lent some support. Looking ahead today there will be more jobs data (ADP) and Prelim GDP for USD traders to navigate.
AUD, NZD and EUR were all firmer against the USD. High beta AUD and NZD were the clear outperformers while EUR saw similar gains, all benefitting from USD weakness and a risk-on environment as opposed to anything currency specific. AUD was also given an extra boost by gains in iron ore.
AUDUSD hit a high of 0.6487, testing last week’s highs and the resistance just below the psychological 0.6500 level. NZDUSD up to 0.5977 also pushing to the highs of its recent range. Ahead today a pivotal CPI figure out of Australia may see some of these levels tested.
EURUSD hit highs of 1.0891, retaking the support level at 1.0840 and looking to test the big figure at 1.09 to the upside. Eurozone inflation figures out of Germany and Spain released later today will be the main risk events for EUR traders. JPY rallied against the USD later in the session on the retreat of US Treasury yields after weak US data.
Earlier in the session though USDJPY breached the August highs resistance level to trade up to a high of 147.38 (which was its highest level since November) before the aforementioned weak US data and move lower in UST yields saw a dramatic reversal. BoJ intervention on the Yen still on the back of JPY traders’ minds. Today’s calendar has some decent risk events likely to cause volatility in FX markets, starting with Aussie CPI, then CPI readings from the Eurozone and topped off with GDP and more jobs data out of the US.
Despite runaway US treasury yields which saw 10-year yields hit their highest level since 2007, the USD was flat in Monday’s session as it seems improved risk sentiment and a technically overbought Dollar Index (DXY)held it in check. DXY traded within a tight range with a low of 103.13 and a high of 103.50, where it was again rejected at the major resistance set at the July and August to date highs. USD traders focus today will be on FedSpeak from Bowman, Goolsbee, and Barkin whose comments will be closely watched ahead of Jackson Hole later in the week.
EUR was the outperforming major currency, with EURUSD pushing hard to reclaim the psychological 1.09 level but failing to hold convincingly above. Another headline to hit the wires was HSBC giving a bullish take on the EUR "in part built on the idea of upside for the EUR from overly dovish rate expectations for the ECB". They noted that while headline inflation figures are cooling, core inflation is proving stickier.
JPY resumed its march lower on Monday, reversing its 2-day rally from late last week. The jump higher in US yields saw carry traders back in action taking the USDJPY back above 146.00 from lows of 145.15. A note from JP Morgan stated that they believe the MoF will not intervene in the FX market at around 145 level as they did previously, with JPM analysts believing the threshold level for BoJ intervention being around 150 level.
AUD and NZD saw marginal gains vs the USD with the Kiwi the lagging vs the Aussie after New Zealand trade figures showed a deficit of 1.1bln in July, vs the prior surplus of 9mln. AUDUSD reclaimed the big figure at 0.6400, AUDNZD holding above the key 1.0800 level. A quiet calendar ahead today for both AUD and NZD, with general market sentiment likely to be the main drivers in price action for the rest of the week.
The AUD/USD pair has had a tough month, falling relatively consistently since mid-July. This decline can be attributed to several factors, most notably the strengthening of the USD driven by the Federal Reserve's firm commitment to ‘higher for longer’ rates, aimed at taming inflation to meet target levels. Another contributing factor to the AUD's descent is the sluggish pace of China's economic recovery.
As China grapples with a gradual rebound, the demand for Australian exports, a crucial driver for the AUD, has been hampered. Despite the challenges, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains room for action in its ongoing battle against inflation. This leaves the door ajar for the possibility of further rate hikes, which could potentially be positive for the AUD.
From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair finds itself positioned at a critical support level. Having proven its resilience in late May as a support zone, traders will be watching to see if it will hold again. If this level fails, there is plenty of room to the downside for the pair, with the next major support level at around $0.62.
Key news events upcoming this week that could be a catalyst for the pair will be US Retail Sales on Tuesday and Aussie unemployment figures Thursday.
A -3.5% slide in AAPL stock price pre-market is seeing the tech giant looking to continue this weeks sell-off after a Bloomberg report that Chinese authorities plan to broaden iPhone restrictions to a number of state-owned companies and other government-affiliated entities. This comes after Wednesday saw the largest one day drop in AAPL stock in over month after the initial plans for the Chinese ban was reported by the Wall St Journal. The Chinese-US tech war seems to be escalating as China attempts to prop up it’s domestic chip makers in the face of US sanctions and reduce its reliance on Western technology, with AAPL an unwitting victim.
AAPL technical analysis: The pre-market currently is showing an AAPL open price of 176.50 a hefty 3.5% lower from yesterdays close of 182.91, this will see the price open below the key technical level of the 100 Day MA and making 8 day lows. Coming into play as well will be the support level of the August lows, after a down move started by a disappointing earnings report in early August. Another key level to the upside is the resistance level of the earnings gap fill, where a rally in AAPL stalled before this recent China induced sell-off.
As dire as the chart looks at the moment, there is some good news for AAPL bulls with some analysts seeing this sell-off as an overreaction as the Chinese ban will only effect 500,000 out of 45M iPhones after AAPL has seen massive share gains recently of the Chinese smartphone market. If we see support at and a hold of the post earnings August lows, a rebound in AAPL is certainly on the cards.