Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
After surging close to 4% since early July off the back of a weakening USD, the EURUSD pair has stabilised around $1.123. With very little volatility seen this week in the pair, eyes now turn to the euro, as the European inflation data is set to be released today. Analysts are predicting a continued downward trend in inflation, with a Year-on-Year forecast of 5.50%, which is below May’s figure of 6.1%.
If the inflation data comes in above forecasts, we may see a further increase in the EUR as investors move towards the potentially higher yields. On the technical front, the tightening of Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is something to watch. The lack of movement in the EURUSD pair throughout this week has led to exceptionally tight Bollinger Bands, with levels not observed on this timeframe since 2021.
When Bollinger Bands contract significantly, it typically signifies a period of low volatility and suggests that a breakout or significant price movement may be on the horizon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in overbought territory on multiple timeframes, including the daily. This might suggest there is room for a cool-off before a further continuation higher.
However, with the European inflation data due today, the fundamental data might cancel out any technical signals.
After reaching the high of 1.1250, last tested in 2022, the EURUSD has been trading steadily lower and currently sits along the 1.0850 support level, formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing low from early July. Looking at the technical aspects, the Ichimoku cloud indicates continued bearish pressures, with the top of the channel providing dynamic resistance, highlighting further downside potential for the EURUSD. The current downtrend on the EURUSD has been driven by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) comments in July that there was no clear bias in favour of hiking or holding rates for the upcoming meeting in September.
Coupled with the increasing likelihood of another rate hike to come from the US FOMC in September, as the Fed continues to fight inflation, strength in the DXY has led to the EURUSD trading lower. While a brief retracement could be likely to retest the upper bound of the channel, look for the EURUSD to maintain within the bearish channel. If the price breaks below the support level of 1.0850, this could signal a confirmation of further downside, with the next key support level at the previous swing low, along the 1.0650 price level.
The EURUSD pair has been navigating challenging waters in recent weeks, experiencing a decline of more than 5% since mid-July. This decline has primarily been due to the USD's strength, as the Federal Reserve remains firm in its commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for longer to bring down inflation. Last week marked a critical turning point for EURUSD as it breached a crucial trend level.
The ascending channel that had been in place since early 2023 was broken, resulting in a swift price decline to around 1.07. Presently, the pair is sitting precariously on an important horizontal support level. The significance of this support level cannot be overstated.
Failure to hold at this level could lead to further downward movement, with the next support zone around the 1.05 mark. This impending test of support comes at a pivotal moment as the market eagerly await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later this week. The upcoming CPI data will be the main event for USD traders this week.
A decline in inflation could potentially soften the USD, suggesting that the Fed might consider an earlier-than-expected rate cut. On the other hand, if inflation exceeds analyst estimates, it may bolster the USD's strength, potentially causing the EURUSD pair to breach its current support level and head towards lower levels. As we approach the release of the CPI data, all eyes are on this key economic indicator.
Its outcome will undoubtedly serve as a pivotal driver of direction for the EURUSD pair this week.
EU and UK indices are looking to open slightly stronger despite a weak lead from the Asian session. Aussie and Asian indices finish in the red after US-China tech-related frictions and disappointing Japanese GDP revisions weighed on risk sentiment. Asian session wrap - FX Markets The USD was softer with DXY retreating from extreme RSI overbought levels to push below the key 105.00 level.
Dovish commentary from the Fed’s Logan ahead of the Fed blackout window and strength in the Dollars major counterparts outweighing the sour risk sentiment which would normally see the Dollar benefit from haven flows. EUR bounced back after a sell-off on Yesterday’s dismal German data. EURUSD pushing back above the 1.0700 level after finding support at the June lows.
USDJPY was choppy with early drop due to the risk-off mood and MoF jawboning saw the pair test the S/R level at 146.63 before bouncing back as the Asian session progressed. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki stating in comments that rapid FX moves are undesirable and warned the Japanese MoF won't rule out any options (intervention?) AUDUSD rallied to test the key 0.6400 S/R level, despite the risk-off tone and recent commodity pressure. A weaker USD and some technical support from the daily trendline seeming to be the key drivers.
Looking ahead, the main risk events data wise will be Canadian jobs figures later today and Chinese CPI released on Saturday.
The DAX cooled off in yesterday’s session off the back of higher-than-expected German inflation data. With analysis expecting the Year-on-Year rate to fall to 6%, the actual number was higher at 6.2%. This has raised some concerns over the fight against inflation in Germany, putting an end to the three-day green streak for the DAX.
Technically, price bounced nicely off the support zone around 15,500-15,600. This level has acted as both a key area of resistance and support in the past 6 months. Since the first breakout above that zone in March, price has been ranging sideways ever since.
Multiple attempts to break and hold above the January 2022 high have failed, and the recent sell-off coincided nicely at the mid-range level. From a purely support and resistance technical view, there are two scenarios that could occur. The first would be a fall back down to the key support level around 15,600.
The second could be a positive catalyst news even that kicks price through the mid-range resistance level and back up towards the January 2022 high for a 4th attempt at breaking through. Since the recent low 2 weeks ago, the price action formed a more bullish market structure on the lower timeframes. We’ve seen a clean higher high and higher low.
While this bullish structure holds, bulls could remain in control.
In June, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets with a decision to hike rates by 25bps, taking the Australian cash rate to 4.10%. This was decided on the basis that further increases were required to provide greater confidence that inflation would return to the target range within a reasonable timeframe. This decision led to the AUDUSD climbing steadily from the 0.6650 price level up toward the 0.69 round number resistance area.
Currently, the AUDUSD is trading along the 0.6670 price level, just below the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, in the lead-up to the RBA decision on 4th July. While markets anticipate that the RBA could hold rates at 4.10%, given that the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen significantly from 6.8% to 5.6%, another surprise hike from the RBA could still be possible as inflation is still well above the target range. As the AUDUSD found relative support along the 0.6595 price level and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending to the upside, a decision from the RBA to hike rates to 4.35% could lead the AUDUSD to climb steadily toward the immediate resistance level of 0.69.
Watch for the price to break above the 0.67 round number level, to signal a confirmation of the upside, with the 0.68 price level coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level providing brief resistance on the path up to the 0.69 resistance area.