Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
The USD/CAD pair experienced a relatively uneventful session after Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to keep interest rates on hold. However, what caught the attention of traders was the hawkish tone in the central bank's language. Similar to many central banks globally, the BoC is cautious about raising rates further until they thoroughly assess the inflation landscape.
Still, they've left the door open for potential rate hikes in the future. Surprisingly, this hawkish stance from the BoC didn't have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar against the US. The strength of the US dollar remained dominant, keeping the USD/CAD pair relatively flat during the session.
Currently, the pair finds itself at a crucial resistance level, which it has unsuccessfully attempted to breach three times since April. The BoC's hawkish language appears to have halted the pair's upward momentum, preventing a breakout, but wasn’t enough to push the pair south. Since mid-July, the USD/CAD pair has experienced an impressive 4% surge, driven by a resilient US dollar and the US Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation.
However, from the technical view, a slightly bearish divergence is forming on the daily RSI, indicating the move might be running out of steam and a potential correction could be on the cards. In this high inflation environment, the pair's direction will likely hinge on crucial upcoming data releases in the weeks ahead. In addition to the technical setups, traders should keep a close watch on the fundamentals to help navigate potential shifts in direction.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has closed its fourth consecutive day in the red, reaching levels last seen in early May 2023. Despite the recent decline, the DXY is coming into support around the 100 level, which has proven to be a resilient bounce point multiple times. However, each bounce appears to be getting smaller, which might indicate growing downward pressure.
This support level adds an interesting dynamic to the market as traders watch for potential price reaction. Todays US CPI print may hold the key to determining the DXY's future trajectory. If the CPI data is reported higher than expected, it could potentially fuel speculation of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
In such a scenario, we might see the DXY experiencing a short-term rebound, as higher interest rates tend to attract investors seeking stronger returns. On the other hand, if the CPI data comes in lower than expected, market participants might interpret it as a sign that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its current pause in interest rate hikes during their upcoming FOMC meetings. If that occurs, it could potentially exert downward pressure on the US Dollar.
A more accommodative monetary policy stance may reduce the attractiveness of the USD to investors seeking higher yields, leading to a potential decline in its value against other currencies and potentially sending the DXY below 100 for the first time since early 2022. US CPI will be released at 08:30 EDT, YoY is expected to come in at 3.1%, with MoM expected at 0.3%
The current market consensus is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would likely keep interest rates at 5.50% at the upcoming meeting on 12th July. This is supported by the RBNZ’s monetary statement indicating that “ monetary policy is having a sufficiently moderating effect on demand and inflation, and that we are yet to see the full effects of past tightening on the economy. A pause would also allow more time to assess the impact of the significant tightening, and the timing of any further increase that might be needed.” However, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned down from its peak of 7.3%, the most recent data was released at 6.7%, this is still significantly higher than the RBNZ’s target level of 1-3%.
Therefore, another rate hike from the RBNZ cannot be ruled out. In May, the RBNZ released its decision to hike rates to 5.50% but also indicated that the official cash rate has reached its peak at 5.50% but would need to remain at the restrictive level until at least the middle of 2024. This led to the NZDUSD falling steadily from 0.6250 to reach the round number support level of 0.60.
As the NZDUSD climbs toward the 0.6250 price area, formed by the previous swing high and the downward trendline, look for a potential reversal if the RBNZ holds interest rates at 5.50% as forecasted. A reversal to the downside could reach the price level of 0.61, supported by the upward trendline, and beyond that, the 0.60 round number key support level.
Todays NFP figure out of the USA is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in market expectations as to whether we’ve seen peak rates from The Federal Reserve, or if there is more to come and the ramifications that will have for the FX market. NFP figures are always interesting, traditionally the biggest market moving figure of the month on the US calendar, and against the backdrop of the Feds “data dependent” messaging regarding future rate moves this figure will be a big piece of how the market prices in the result of the September Fed meeting. Currently markets are butting heads with the Fed, only pricing in a higher chance of no more hikes from the Fed, despite Fed guidance and dot plots indicating they are looking at least one more hike this cycle.
Current September Fed Fund Future odds are showing only a 17.5% of a hike in the September meeting. Source:CME Fedwatch tool Market expectations are for a slowing in payroll growth in July the consensus being 200k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in July, slightly cooling from the 209k added in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%. A big beat or miss on these expectations, a rapid repricing of hike/hold odds would be likely to see volatility and opportunities in FX markets.
Chart to watch: US Dollar Index (DXY) DXY has rallied strongly since mid-July as the UST 10 Year yields pushed higher and getting an extra boost from some risk-off this week in equity markets which pushed DXY through the S/R level at 102. DXY found resistance at its upper trend line at around the 102.84 level, seeing some of the recent gains being pared. Also an important factor is the close relationship between US10 yields and DXY, the yields now above 4% where they have struggled to go any higher in the recent past, this will also see a headwind against DXY pushing higher from this level.
The levels to watch over todays NFP will be 102.84 to the upside on a big beat, 102 as support to the downside if we get a big miss. Both of those levels will be key in the next trend direction of DXY. Calendar:
The Nasdaq Composite Index has kicked off 2023 with a historic performance, achieving its most impressive start since 1975. Despite concerns about a potential recession, the index has displayed remarkable resilience, surging over 37% year-to-date as of the end of July. The upward trend has been consistent, with green months recorded in 6 out of the 7 months of the year so far.
With only 13.50% more to run before it gets back to all time highs set in November 2021, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out over the second half of the year. From a technical standpoint, traders are closely monitoring the current price action within this crucial resistance zone. The market's reaction here will determine its short-term direction.
Will the resistance zone hold strong and push the price downward, or will the momentum be strong enough to break through and continue its journey toward all-time highs? Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been floating around overbought territory since mid-June. This confluence with the resistance zone indicates a possible cooling off period in the coming weeks.
This scenario wouldn't be overly surprising, as markets often experience a breather after significant surges.
After a fortnight of trending north, Gold has fallen over the past 5 days. It is currently trading at around $1960, showing a slight decline of approximately 1.35% from its recent high of $1987.53. Price is currently trying to break out of the downward channel that it has been in since late last week, so something to keep an eye on going into the key economic data due out this week.
All eyes are now on the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is currently pointing towards a high probability (over 98%) of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday. Considering the historical inverse relationship between gold and the USD, let's explore potential reactions by Gold to the FOMC meeting: Rate Hike Scenario (USD Strengthens): If the FOMC goes ahead with the 25bps rate hike, it could lead to a strengthening of the USD. Higher interest rates tend to attract more investments into the US currency, potentially dampening demand for gold.
Consequently, gold prices might face downward pressure in this scenario. Rate Pause Scenario (USD Weakens): Conversely, if the Fed decides to maintain interest rates at 5.25% or hints at a more dovish approach, the USD could weaken. A weaker USD often prompts investors to seek refuge in gold as a hedge against currency depreciation and inflation.
As a result, gold prices could see an uptick due to increased demand. Source: CME Fedwatch tool With the markets almost entirely pricing in a 25bps hike, unless we get a surprise in the figure, volatility may stay subdued until Fed Chair Jerome Powell begins his press conference shortly after the announcement. Investors and traders will be eagerly analysing his language to see if there are any hints on future movements by the Fed.