Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Comments from Bank of Japan governor Ueda over the week saw USDJPY gap significantly lower at the Asian session open. The pair now trading well under 147 from eight-month highs at Fridays close. Ueda commented that the BoJ cannot rule out that they might have sufficient data by year-end to determine whether they can end negative rates, this brings the timeline forward of Japanese normalization, previously not signaled to begin until 2024.
US-JPY rate differentials compressed on the news, with the predictable move in USDJPY to the downside. USDJPY found some support at the 4H trendline and has retraced some of its losses in the EU session, hovering just below the key resistance level of 146.63, a resistance level that capped gains in the pair during August. Key UK wage and jobs data released on Tuesday, is looking to show some cooling in the UK jobs market but probably not enough to avoid a September BoE rate hike.
GBPUSD holding the major support at 1.2450 and continuing to rise, reclaiming the psychological 1.2500 level, and piercing trendline resistance to the upside. Tomorrows figure, if a big miss or big beat, should see some action in GBP as rate hike/hold odds adjust. The Aussie dollar has surged today, AUDUSD breaking out of its tight September range and reclaiming the major S/R level at 0.6400.
AUD gaining alongside the CNH after the PBoC set the strongest fix signal on record. Chinese data released over the weekend also showing the worlds second largest economy bouncing back from deflation.
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) released its latest earnings results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. Let’s see how it performed in Q3. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation, food delivery Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $9.292 billion for the quarter (up by 11% year-over-year), missing analyst estimate of $9.539 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported above estimates at $0.10 per share vs. $0.071 per share expected. Uber completed 2.4 billion trips during the quarter, up by 25% during the same period last year. Monthly active platform consumers reached 142 million in Q3, up by 15% year-over-year.
CEO and CFO commentary "Our relentless focus on improving the product experience for both consumers and drivers continued to power profitable growth, with trip growth accelerating to 25%," Uber CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi said in a statement. "Uber’s core business is stronger than ever as we enter the busiest period of the year," Khosrowshahi added. "Strong topline trends and record profitability demonstrate the durability of our growth and the significant earnings power underlying our platform," Nelson Chai, CFO of the company said about the latest results. "We continue to make disciplined investments in growth opportunities to support long-term value creation for all stakeholders," Chai concluded. The stock was up by around 1% on Tuesday, trading at the highest level since 11th September at $48.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.49% 3 months: +8.92% Year-to-date: +98.91% 1 year: +79.26% Uber price targets Keybanc: $50 Seaport Global: $51 Needham: $60 RBC Capital: $58 Wells Fargo: $59 Loop Capital: $58 JP Morgan: $56 Truist Securities: $60 Morgan Stanley: $60 Uber is the 131st largest company in the world with a market cap of $100.92 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
Meta Platforms Inc. (NYSE:META) announced its latest financial results after ther market close in the US on Thursday. Marc Zuckerburg’s company crushed analyst estimates for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how the company and the stock has performed.
The results Meta reported revenue of $34.146 billion for Q3 (up by 23% year-over-year) vs. $33.579 billion expected. EPS reported at $4.39 per share (up by 168% year-over-year) vs. $3.643 per share estimate. The company expects revenue of around $36.5 to $40 billion in Q4.
CEO commentary "We had a good quarter for our community and business," Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms said in a statement to investors. "I'm proud of the work our teams have done to advance AI and mixed reality with the launch of Quest 3, Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, and our AI studio," Zuckerberg added. The stock The stock was down by 3.73% at $288.35 a shon Thursday before the latest earnings were announced. However, the stock has experienced a tremendous year so far and is up by over 130% year-to-date.
Stock performance 1 month: -3.95% 3 months: -11.41% Year-to-date: +139.61% 1 year: +190.68% Mate Platforms stock price targets Truist Securities: $405 RCB Capital: $400 Piper Sandler: $355 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $380 Barclays: $400 Rosenblatt: $411 Keybanc: $380 JP Morgan: $400 Meta Platforms is the 7th largest company in the world with a market cap of $741.01 billion. You can trade Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs, including Meta Platforms.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Meta Platforms Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Nvidia has been the star of the US markets since the AI hype kicked off late 2022. The trillion-dollar chip manufacturer’s shares have almost tripled in 2023 alone, with the price increasing every month so far this year. In May, Nvidia surprised the markets by posting earnings and revenue figures well above analysts’ expectations.
This sent price rocketing and adding almost $184B USD to the market cap during the following daily session. Nvidia is set to release their Q2 results on Wednesday, so the markets will be watching to see if they have been able to maintain the strong momentum over the past quarter. Markets are estimating earnings of $2.076B and revenue of $11.14B.
Technically, the price has been ranging sideways between $400-$480 since around June 2023. There is a strong support level around $400 that held multiple times in the past few months, so this will be a key level to hold if the earnings on Wednesday are below expectations. If earnings beat expectations, the price could head back north towards the resistance zone at about $470.
Traders will be watching this level to see if there is enough momentum to break through to all- time highs again. With the AI hype cooling off slightly over the past few months, it will be interesting to see how Nvidia performed over the past quarter and if the momentum was sustainable.
In 2022, it was believed that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened three times, in September when the USDJPY was at 145.80, and in October and November when the USDJPY was at the 151.50 and 146.50 price levels respectively. For each of the 3 interventions, the USDJPY reversed strongly by more than 500pips. With the recent steady climb in the USDJPY in August, rising from 138 to the high of 146.50, there have been increasing comments from members of the BoJ and Japanese government regarding the need for an intervention.
The BoJ has avoided interventions, possible for the interim, by announcing increased flexibility on its yield-curve control (YCC). However, the markets viewed the action as insufficient and the stronger DXY continued to take the USDJPY higher. Continued upside on the USDJPY cannot be ruled out, especially if the DXY continues to strengthen significantly.
However, if the USDJPY continues to trade between the 145 and 146.50 price range, the possibility for an intervention from the BoJ increases. For an impactful intervention, the scale and timing of the decision would not be scheduled. A signal would be based on price volatility, in this case, if the USDJPY breaks through the bullish Ichimoku cloud and down from the 145-round number support level, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
A reversal of 500 pips, similar to previous interventions, could see the USDJPY retest the trendline, along the 140 price level, with interim support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 141.60 price level.
USDJPY briefly pushed above 145 in today’s session before a sharp pullback, with traders wary of recent jawboning from Japanese officials regarding the “one sided” trade in the Yen may be setting the Japanese MoF up for another round on FX intervention that we saw late in 2022. Some sharp moves in the Yen in the last day have had traders speculating the MoF may have already intervened on a small scale but there was no official confirmation of intervention, MoF officials said they have no comment on the matter, but “they are mindful of the one-sided moves”. Looking at a close up of last years price action in the USDJPY may give traders a clue as to what to expect, with minor interventions seeing USDJPY spike lower, only to rise again until a major intervention or surprise policy change sustains a move lower in the cross rate.
This is a fairly predictable scenario from my experience with JPY interventions over the years. Any USDJPY traders would be wise to be familiar with the price action from these previous intervention efforts.