Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Big tech earnings continue this week with three more of the Magnificent seven in Amazon, Meta and Apple due to report Q4 earnings after the US close on Thursday. So far, we’ve had mixed results from the first three Mag 7 tech stocks, none of them impressed stockholders much, with Tesla, Microsoft and Alphabet all down post earnings to varying degrees, will this new batch turn things around? AMAZON Amazon’s cost-cutting efforts look like they begin to pay off with analysts predicting a significant jump in earnings as compared to a year ago.
Earnings are forecast at 80 cents per share for Q4 2023 versus 3 cents a year ago. Revenue is also expected to jump to $166 billion which is about $17 billion more than for the same period a year ago. Another good sign for the bulls is that Amazon has a good track record with earnings beating estimates every quarter of the last fiscal year.
META Meta comes into today’s earnings after a stellar 2023 where the stock price increased by 194% on the back of the company cutting costs and seeing an increase in users and engagement. Investors and analysts are expecting big things in the latest earnings with consensus calling for earnings of $4.93 per share up from $1.76 a year ago, with revenues of just over $39 billion. Two big parts of the business that will be of extra importance to investors and the reaction in stock price will be Meta’s AI efforts and their growth in China, which has become a growing source of revenue for the company.
APPLE Apple along with Tesla has been one of the Magnificent 7 laggards with the stock price down around 4% YTD. A lukewarm response from investors to their flagship Vision Pro and waning demand for iPhones from China weighing on the stock price. Despite this AAPL is expected to report notably stronger earnings than a year ago, with a consensus of $2.10 per share for Q4 2023, an increase from $1.88 a year ago.
Revenue is projected at $118 billion, a $1 billion increase from Q4 2022. Investors will be focusing on the performance of Apple Services, plans for the Vision Pro and how sales are performing in China. If Apple can allay investors’ fears and provide guidance showing that the Chinese market is solid especially, some of the concerns that have seen the stock down so far this year could be eased.
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) posted Q4 2023 earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The largest pharmaceutical company in the world reported revenue of $9.353 billion (up by 28% year-over-year) vs. $8.946 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped estimates at $2.49 vs. $2.296 per share.
EPS grew by 19% vs. Q4 2022. Eli Lilly expects to achieve revenue of between $40.4 billion and $41.6 billion in 2024.
EPS expected to reach $12.20 to $12.70 per share. Company overview Founded: 1876 Headquarters: Indianapolis, Indiana, United States Number of employees: 39,000 (2022) Industry: Pharmaceutical Key people: David A. Ricks (Chair, President, & CEO), Anat Ashkenazi (CFO) CEO commentary "2023 was a year of tremendous achievement for Lilly, which delivered life-changing medicines to more patients than ever before resulting in strong revenue growth," David A.
Ricks, company CEO, said in a press release. "We advanced our pipeline of new medicines for serious diseases and created new partnerships and innovative ways of collaborating to add to that pipeline. Lilly invested in the quality, reliability and resilience of our supply chain with new advanced manufacturing plants and lines in the U.S. and in Europe. Entering 2024, we remain focused on the opportunity in front of us, to help solve some of the most challenging healthcare problems in the world and make life better for millions of patients," Ricks added.
Stock reaction The stock initialy rose by around 5% from $705 to $742 at the market open on Tuesday, reaching a new all-time high. Shares were flat at the end of trading, falling back down to $705.03 level. Stock performance 5 day: +9.31% 1 month: +12.72% 3 months: +17.52% Year-to-date: +20.95% 1 year: +107.56% Eli Lilly stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $630 Wells Fargo & Company: $700 Barclays: $680 Morgan Stanley: $822 Truist Financial: $650 Deutsche Bank: $535 Citigroup: $675 UBS Group: $710 Bank of America: $700 Argus: $620 Credit Suisse Group: $580 BMO Capital Markets: $633 The Goldman Sachs Group: $470 Royal Bank of Canada: $580 Eli Lilly and Company is the 9th largest company in the world with a market cap of $669.28 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Eli Lilly and Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
US manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), reported the latest financial results on Monday. CAT achieved revenue of $17.07 billion for the three months ending 31/12/23 (an increase of 3% year-over-year), which beat analyst estimate of $17.057 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $5.23 (an increase of 35.84% year-over-year) vs. $4.765 per share expected.
The revenue for last year reached $61.1 billion, up by $59.4 billion the year prior. EPS also rose by 53.25% year-over-year to $21.21 per share. Company overview Founded: 1925 Headquarters: Irving, Texas, United States Number of employees: 109,100 (2022) Industry: Heavy equipment, Engines, Financial services Key people: Jim Umpleby (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Jim Umpleby, CEO of Caterpillar commented on the latest results in a press release to investors: "I'm very proud of our global team's strong performance as they achieved the best year in our 98-year history, including record full-year sales and revenues, record adjusted profit per share and record ME&T free cash flow." "We remain committed to serving our customers, executing our strategy and investing for long-term profitable growth," Umpleby added.
Stock reaction Shares of Caterpillar rose by around 5% at the open, reaching a new all-time high. The stock ended the day up by 2% at $321.40 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +5.99% 1 month: +9.97% 3 months: +34.88% Year-to-date: +8.70% 1 year: +27.83% Caterpillar stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $270 Standford C.
Bernstein: $245 Stifel Nicolaus: $293 HSBC: $250 Tigress Financial: $295 The Goldman Sachs Group: $274 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $320 Bank of America: $297 Barclays: $250 Credit Suisse Group: $334 Wells Fargo & Company: $285 TD Cowen: $320 Robert W. Baird: $234 Citigroup: $270 Caterpillar Inc. is the 73rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $163.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Caterpillar Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. World’s largest aircraft manufacturer’s revenue reached $22.018 billion for the last three months of 2023, above analyst estimate of $21.184 billion. Revenue rose by 10% year-over-year.
Boeing reported a loss per share of -$0.47, which was less than -$0.777 loss per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1916 Headquarters: Arlington County, Virginia, United States Number of employees: 156,000 (2022) Industry: Aerospace Key people: Dave Calhoun (President and CEO), Larry Kellner (Chairman) CEO commentary "While we report our financial results today, our full focus is on taking comprehensive actions to strengthen quality at Boeing, including listening to input from our 737 employees that do this work every day," Dave Calhoun, CEO of Boeing said in a statement. "As we move forward, we will support our customers, work transparently with our regulator and ensure we complete all actions to earn the confidence of our stakeholders," Calhoun looked ahead as company battles recent 737 aircraft safety issues and tries to rebuild its reputation. Stock reaction The stock took off on Wednesday after dropping to its lowest level since 17/11/2023 the day before.
Shares were up 5.29%, trading at $211.04 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -1.44% 1 month: -13.48% 3 months: +11.44% Year-to-date: -19.04% 1 year: -1.73% Boeing price targets Bank of America: $225 Susquehanna: $279 Wells Fargo & Company: $225 UBS Group: $315 Barclays: $235 Stifel Nicolaus: $265 Royal Bank of Canada: $275 Deutsche Bank: $270 Morgan Stanley: $220 Citigroup: $271 TD Cowen: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $275 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 The Boeing Company is the 104th largest company in the world with a market cap of $127.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
It’s set to be another busy week of US earnings with The Coca-Cola Company, Shopify Inc., Airbnb Inc., Deere & Company and more expected to announce the latest earnings results. First up, US computer networking company Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) released the latest results after the closing bell on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $1.54 billion for Q4 2023, narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $1.534 billion.
Revenue was up by 20.8% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $2.08, which was above analyst estimate of $1.704 per share. EPS was up by 47.51% from Q4 2022.
Full year revenue was up by 33.8% from 2022 at $5.860 billion. EPS reached $6.94 per share. Company overview Founded: 2004 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 3,612 (2022) Industry: Networking hardware Key people: Jayshree Ullal (CEO and Chairperson), Andy Bechtolsheim (Founder and Chief Architect), Chantelle Breithaupt (CFO) CFO commentary "I am truly honoured to be a part of the leadership team that will drive Arista 2.0 products and technology for enterprise, cloud and AI customers.
As we enter 2024, we remain focused on satisfying their most demanding requirements with our compelling, innovative networking solutions," CFO of Arista Networks, Chantelle Breithaupt said in a press release. Stock reaction There was no major movement in share price on Monday before the latest results were announced. The stock was trading at $280.88 a share, down by 0.56%.
Shares fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +2.90% 1 month: +11.45% 3 months: +33.57% Year-to-date: +19.26% 1 year: +106.53% Arista Networks stock price targets Wells Fargo & Company: $310 JMP Securities: $325 KeyCorp: $287 Melius Research: $300 Morgan Stanley: $272 Citigroup: $300 The Goldman Sachs Group: $248 Needham & Company LLC: $235 Piper Sandler: $209 Rosenblatt Securities: $230 Bank of America: $225 Argus: $225 Barclays: $200 BNP Paribas: $210 Credit Suisse Group: $151 Arista Networks Inc. is the 178 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $87.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Arista Networks Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced fourth quarter of 2023 and full year financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday, ending a busy week of earnings. The US banking and payment card services company achieved revenue of $15.799 billion vs. $16.003 billion. Revenue grew by 11% vs. the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.62 vs. $2.639 pe share estimate. EPS was up by 27% year-over-year. American Express set a new full year revenue record at $60.5 billion – up by 14% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reached $11.21 per share – an 14% year-over-year. The company also announced plans to increase its quarterly dividend to $0.70 per common share, up from $0.60 per share. Company overview Founded: 1850 Headquarters: 200 Vesey Street Manhattan, New York City, NY 10285, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (2022) Industry: Banking, Payment card services Key people: Stephen J.
Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C. Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We delivered record revenues and profits in 2023, building on the momentum we've achieved since we announced our growth plan in January 2022. We continued to drive strong customer engagement, and demand for our premium products remained robust.
We added 12.2 million new proprietary cards in the year, bringing the total number of cards-in-force issued on our global network to over 140 million,'' Stephen J. Squeri, CEO of American Express commented on the latest results. Squeri also looked at the year ahead, setting expectations for investors: ''Based on the momentum in our business, we are providing full-year 2024 guidance for revenue growth of 9 percent to 11 percent and EPS of $12.65 to $13.15.
Looking ahead, we continue to run the business with a focus on our aspiration of revenue growth of 10 percent plus and mid-teens EPS growth.'' Stock reaction The share price rose by over 7% on Friday, trading at $201.43 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +8.90% 1 month: +6.47% 3 months: +41.16% Year-to-date: +6.47% 1 year: +15.76% American Express stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $157 Deutsche Bank: $235 Robert W. Baird: $190 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 205 Stephens: $193 The Goldman Sachs Group: $205 Barclays: $184 TD Cowen: $158 Citigroup: $154 Piper Sandler Companies: $151 Morgan Stanley: $175 Royal Bank of Canada: $185 HSBC: $181 Oppenheimer: $175 Bank of America: $202 American Express Company is the 86th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap