Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
USD was bid in Mondays session with the US Dollar Index following US treasury yields higher after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell over the weekend where he pushed back on market pricing of rate cuts starting in March. A beat in the ISM Services PMI data also supporting DXY as rate cut odds in March dropped down to around 17% from the 35% chance priced in at the close on Friday. JPY continued its decline with USDJPY printing a new high for 2024 at 148.89.
US 10 Year yields broke above 4%, seeing the US10Y – JP10Y rate differential jump higher and take USDJPY with it. USDJPY holding above the psychological 148 level and eyeing the 150 “intervention zone”. AUDUSD saw significant weakness with USD strength and a miss in the Chinese Caixin Services PMI weighing.
For AUD traders’ attention today will turn to the RBA rate decision at 14:30 AEDT. The Central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but it will be the accompanying statement that will generate the most interest, will the RBA take a note out the Feds book and push back against rate cut expectations? Gold dipped to 1-week lows on a stronger USD and a surge in yields making the non-yielding metal look less attractive.
XAUUSD dipping to a low of 1025 before finding some support and re-tracing modestly. Gold continuing to trade in the 2024 range of 2000 – 2070 USD an ounce. Both key levels to watch for Gold traders going forward.
USD started the session weaker with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting a low of 102.94, as it was weighed on by dovish economic data, with misses in ADP employment and Employment Cost Index. This turned around dramatically after what was seen as a hawkish result out of the FOMC where the Fed left rates unchanged as expected but pushed back on the markets expectation of near term rate cuts. Chair Powell also said he “does not think a March rate cut is likely”, this saw futures reprice to a 35% chance of a cut in March, from 50% going into the FOMC which was USD positive.
Ultimately DXY finishing almost unchanged on the day, with the 200-day SMA and 50% fib resistance still capping further upward momentum. JPY was the only G10 currency to outperform the greenback on Wednesday, with it showing strength pre and post the FOMC rate announcement. USDJPY dropping to test the big figure at 146 before finding some support.
Yield differentials between US-JP 10 Y tightening significantly the main driver in this pair and price plays catch up to the downside. A hawkish BoJ summary saw JGB yields move higher more than offsetting the hawkish reaction to the FOMC in US yields. AUDUSD dipped below 0.6600 after a cooler than expected CPI figure out of Australia weighed on the local currency, along with USD strength post FOMC.
The next big level to the downside for this pair is the 2-month low support at 0.6525, a level that could come into play with major US data still to come this week, headlined by Fridays NFP.
USD drifted lower in Tuesday’s session, the US dollar index retracing a good chunk of Mondays gains. Regional bank fears were at the fore, with NYCB continuing its steep decline in an otherwise quiet session news wise. This saw the haven of bonds bid, sending yields lower and dragging the USD down with them.
DXY dipping back below its 100 Day SMA. AUD outperform after a hawkish hold from the RBA in their February meeting on Tuesday. The Aussie Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected, but in a break with other major central banks, that have recently removed their tightening bias messaging, stated that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
AUDUSD pushing up to test the Support/Resistance level of 0.6525 which will be a key level to watch in the week ahead. Lower US yields causing a drop in yield differentials saw JPY gain, with USDJPY dipping below 148. A Reuters report that claimed that the BoJ is laying the groundwork to end NIRP by April also lending some support to the Japanese currency.
A weaker USD and some haven flows on bank fears saw gold bounce higher after two down sessions. XAUUSD continues to trade in a tight range with the upside capped at 2070 USD an ounce and good support to the downside around 2020.
USD was ultimately lower on Wednesday after a rollercoaster of a session. Broad risk-on sentiment early on saw the Dollar Index (DXY) plummet to hit a low of 102.77 until strong S&P Global Flash PMIs coupled with souring risk sentiment after a dismal US 5yr auction saw a sharp turn-around. DXY retaking the 103 handle at session end, with the 50% Fib resistance the level to watch on the upside.
CAD was under pressure with steep losses against all majors in the aftermath of the BoC rate decision. The Bank of Canada held rates at 5.0% as expected but the Bank's decision to omit language that it is prepared to raise rates further if needed was seen as a dovish and hammered the CAD lower, USDCAD moving higher to 1.3525 and looking set to re-test the resistance level at 1.3541. EUR saw decent gains against the USD.
Europe saw beats in Flash PMIs headline figures for EU, German and French Manufacturing which supported the single currency. Though EURUSD was unable to hold the key resistance and psychological level of 1.09 as USD strength returned later in the session. EUR traders also have the ECB rate decision to look forward to later in the session, the ECB is expected to hold, but as always it will be the messaging traders will be watching.
GBP also saw strength in the aftermath of strong UK PMIs, as manufacturing, Services, and Composite all topped expectations. GBPUSD rallied to test the trend line resistance before pulling back on USD strength, with 1.2772 being a key level to watch in today’s session.
USD saw gains on Thursday with the US Dollar index (DXY) pushing above 104 before again finding resistance at the 100-day SMA. A rise in UST yields after a better than expected jobless claims figures. In data ahead Dollar traders will be focussing on the US CPI revisions.
EUR was mostly flat vs the Dollar with EURUSD trading down to 1.0750 before rebounding. ECB speak saw Wunsch state he sees some indications, not strong ones, that wage growth is softening, while Holzmann suggested there is a chance the ECB will not cut rates this year. JPY was the G10 underperformer after commentary from BoJ officials that was perceived as dovish.
Deputy Governor Uchida hinting that the BoJ will not aggressively hike rates, even after ending NIRP. USDJPY jumped to a high of 149.46 with the move higher in rate differential also lending support to this pair. AUD and NZD sold off after softer than expected China inflation data.
AUDUSD dropping back below the key 0.65 level, NZDUSD testing support at 0.6075 before retracing modestly. This also saw AUDNZD drop for a 4 th straight session, down to 1.0650.
World’s second largest oil & gas company, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), announced results for the previous quarter before the market opened on Friday. Exxon Mobil stated that the revenue reached $84.344 billion for the quarter, which was below analyst estimate of $90.032 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $2.48 vs. $2.196 per share expected – beating Wall Street estimates for the first time since Q1 of 2023.
Company overview Founded: 1882 Headquarters: Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,300 (2022) Industry: Energy Key people: Darren Woods (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary ''Our consistent strategy and execution excellence across the business delivered industry-leading earnings and enabled us to return more cash to shareholders than our peers in 2023 1,'' Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon said in a press release to investors. ''These results demonstrate the fundamental improvements we’ve made to our business, reflecting our progress in high-grading our portfolio through investments in advantaged projects and select divestments, while, at the same time, driving a higher level of efficiency and effectiveness throughout the business. The foundation of our success comes from the resiliency, hard work and commitment of our people. As I reflect on our industry-leading results over the past year, I have a great sense of pride in what our people accomplished,'' Woods concluded.
Stock reaction There stock was up by just under 1% during the trading day on Friday, trading at around $103.38 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +0.29% 1 month: +0.65% 3 months: -4.16% Year-to-date: +3.32% 1 year: -7.70% Exxon Mobil stock price targets TD Cowen: $115 UBS Group: $132 Redburn Atlantic: $119 Mizuho: $117 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $120 Sandford C. Bernstein: $140 Truist Financial: $131 Jefferies Financial Group: $145 Morgan Stanley: $134 Bank of America: $150 Wells Fargo & Company: $130 Redburn Partners: $105 HSBC: $116 Piper Sandler: $127 Exxon Mobil Corporation is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $412.82 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Exxon Mobil Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap