Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Chinese e-commerce giant, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA), released Q4 2023 earnings results before the US market open on Wednesday. The company achieved revenue of $36.67 billion, which was pretty much in line with analyst estimates. Revenue grew by 5% year-over-year.
Earnings per share was reported at $2.672 (down by 2% year-over-year), just shy of $2.672 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1999 Headquarters: No. 969 West Wen Yi Road, Yuhang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China and George Town, Cayman Islands Number of employees: 235,216 (July 2023) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Joseph Tsai (co-founder & chairman), Eddie Wu (co-founder & CEO), J. Michael Evans (president) CEO and CFO commentary ''We delivered a solid quarter as we are executing our focused strategies across the organization.
Our top priority is to reignite the growth of our core businesses, e-commerce and cloud computing. We will step up investment to improve users’ core experiences to drive growth in Taobao and Tmall Group and strengthen market leadership in the coming year. We will also focus our resources on developing public cloud products and sustaining the strong growth momentum in international commerce business,'' Eddie Wu, CEO of Alibaba said in a statement to investors.
Company CFO, Toby Xu also commented on the latest results: ''Alibaba Group delivered a healthy quarter with revenue growth of 5% year-over-year. We increased our investment in strategic priorities and improved shareholder return by leveraging our strong balance sheet and cash flow. Our board of directors approved an increase of US$25 billion to our share repurchase program, demonstrating our confidence in the outlook of our business and cash flow.
Our consistent share repurchase has also reduced outstanding share count while achieving EPS and cash flow per share accretion.'' Stock reaction The stock was trading at its highest level since 24/11/23 at market close on Tuesday. Shares fell at the open on Wednesady after Q4 results were announced and were down by around 5.94% at $73.59 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +2.04% 1 month: +3.12% 3 months: -13.16% Year-to-date: -4.99% 1 year: -29.94% Alibaba stock price targets Robert W.
Baird: $90 Mizuho: $100 Barclays: $109 Benchmark: $128 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $110 Morgan Stanley: $90 Susquehanna: $150 Truist Financial: $120 UBS Group: $127 Bank of America: $136 HSBC: $135 Citigroup: $147 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is the 62nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $184.07 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
TSLA comes into Wednesdays Q4 earnings report having taken a beating so far is 2024, with the stock price down almost 16% in the first 4 weeks of the new year. Q4 was a quarter that saw the company’s deliveries trend higher, driven by stronger sales of its entry-level vehicles following price cuts, an upside surprise may be on the cards lending relief to stockholders after a big miss in Q3 earnings. Earnings reports for Tesla have been volatile to say the least as mixed results are apparent in the past four quarterly earnings reports, where we have seen two beats and two misses.
For this earnings report, the company is expected to report the same earnings per share (EPS) as Q3, where they missed by 17%, seeing TSLA stock drop around $20 as a result. Looking at the chart TSLA has been trading in a descending channel since August 2023 with a support zone possible between the October ’23 lows of 194.62 and the bottom of the channel around 180.71 if TSLA has another miss. To the upside on a beat the support/resistance level at 232.20 would be the level to watch.
Downside could also be limited by the extreme oversold reading we already see on the daily RSI indicator. Another positive sign for the bulls is skew in the options market currently, with equidistant options from the stock price to the downside (puts) and upside (calls) showing a higher price for calls, while this doesn’t mean the stock price is going higher, it does indicate that options traders are in the belief that a big move to the upside is slightly more likely. TSLA is due to release Q4 earnings after the US market close on Wednesday 24 th of January where they are expected to report earnings-per-share (EPS) of $0.73 on $25.76 billion in revenue.
World’s second largest semiconductor company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE: TSM), reported the latest results for Q4 of 2023 before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. TSMC achieved revenue of $19.785 billion in Q4 2023 vs. $19.675 billion expected.
Revenue rose by 14.4% from Q3. Earnings per share was reported at $1.456 per share, which exceeded estimate of $1.385 per share. Company overview Founded: 1987 Headquarters: Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan Number of employees: 73,090 (2022) Industry: Semiconductor Key people: Mark Liu (Chairman), C.C.
Wei (CEO and vice-chairman), Wendell Huang (VP and CFO) CEO commentary "Our fourth quarter business was supported by the continued strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technology. Moving into first quarter 2024, we expect our business to be impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued HPC-related demand," Wendell Huang, CFO of the company said in statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by over 7% during Thursday’s session after the company posted the latest results, trading at $110.32 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +9.03% 1 month: +7.62% 3 months: +18.78% Year-to-date: +6.12% 1 year: +24.84% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock price targets TD Cowen: $95 Barclays: $105 Needham & Company LLC: $115 Susquehanna: $130 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. is the 11th largest company in the world with a market cap of $570.66 billion. You can trade Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
Ltd., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) announced reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The largest real estate company in the US reported revenue of $1.756 billion for Q4 of 2023. Revenue missed analyst estimate of $1.85 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share, above $0.588 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 2,466 (2022) Industry: Real estate Key people: Hamid Moghadam (Chairman and CEO), Dan Letter (President), Gary Anderson (COO), Tim Arndt (CFO) CEO commentary "We closed 2023 adding another year of exceptional performance. I couldn't be more proud of our team," CEO of the company, Hamid Moghadam said in a press release to investors.
Moghadam also highlighted challenges for the company for the year ahead: "While uncertainties remain in the economic and geopolitical environment, we are positive about the outlook for 2024. We remain focused on executing the strategy outlined at our recent Investor Forum to drive significant value from our global scale and continue to be a best-in-class partner to our customers." Stock reaction The stock was down by over 2% on Wednesday, trading at $126.86 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/2023. Stock performance 5 day: -5.01% 1 month: -2.77% 3 months: +21.54% Year-to-date: -4.83% 1 year: +3.43% Prologis stock price targets Mizuho: $130 JP Morgan: $148 Scotiabank: $143 Truist Financial: $120 Stifel Nicolaus: $130 Raymond James: $130 Barclays: $153 Evercore ISI: $125 BNP Paribas: $141 Morgan Stanley: $128 UBS Group: $144 Goldmans Sachs: $170 BMO Capital Markets: $145 Prologis Inc. is the 118th largest company in the world with a market cap of $117.21 billion.
You can trade Prologis Inc. (NYSE: PLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Prologis Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
World’s largest consumer goods company, Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), announced second quarter of fiscal year 2024 results on Tuesday. The company achieved revenue of $21.441 billion for the quarter (up by 3% year-over-year), slightly short of Wall Street estimate of $21.476 billion. Earnings per share reached $1.84 per share (up by 16% year-over-year), which was above analyst estimate of $1.697 per share.
Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 27,560 (2023) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S. Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the second quarter, enabling us to raise our core EPS growth guidance and maintain our top-line outlook for the fiscal year,'' CEO of the company, Jon Moeller, said in a press release to investors. ''We remain committed to our integrated strategy of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority — across product performance, packaging, brand communication, retail execution and consumer and customer value — productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization.
The P&G team’s execution of this strategy has enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum. We have confidence this remains the right strategy to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller added. Stock reaction The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in Tuesday’s session.
Shares were up by 4.39% at $154.35 a share – the highest since 14/9/2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.99% 1 month: +5.71% 3 months: +2.92% Year-to-date: +5.28% 1 year: +8.78% Procter & Gamble price targets JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $162 Barclays: $160 Jefferies Financial Group: $177 DZ Bank: $155 Wells Fargo & Company: $162 Stifel Nicolaus: $151 Sanford C. Bernstein: $153 HSBC: $179 Bank of America: $175 Morgan Stanley: $174 Deutsche Bank: $173 Royal Bank of Canada: $167 Truist Financial Procter & Gamble Company is the 22nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $363.71 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American online streaming service company, Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), released its latest financial results for Q4 of 2023 after the market closed on Tuesday. Netflix reported revenue of $8.833 billion for the quarter (up by 12.5% year-over-year) vs. $8.723 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.11 per share, falling short of Wall Street estimate of $2.219 per share.
The company added 13.1 million new paid subscribers in Q4 2023 vs. 8.97 million subscribers expected – the largest Q4 subscriber growth ever. Total number of paid subscribers has now reached 260.8 million – a new record. It looks like company’s crackdown on password sharing is paying off.
Company overview Founded: 1997 Headquarters: Los Gatos, California, United States Number of employees: 12,800 (2022) Industry: Media, Entertainment Key people: Reed Hastings (executive chairman), Ted Sarandos (co-CEO), Greg Peters (co-CEO) Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.33% at the end of trading day before the latest results were announced at $492.19 a share. The stock rose by around 7% in after-hours trading as Wall Street digested company’s performance in Q4 2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.28% 1 month: +0.20% 3 months: +18.96% Year-to-date: +1.09% 1 year: +35.28% Netflix stock price targets Benchmark: $425 UBS Group: $560 Piper Sandler: $475 KeyCorp: 545 Bank of America: $585 Oppenheimer: $600 Citigroup: $500 BMO Capital Markets: $566 The Goldman Sachs Group: $500 DZ Bank: $495 Wedbush: $525 Morgan Stanley: $550 Netflix Inc. is the 49th largest company in the world with a market cap of $215.42 billion.
You can trade Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Netflix Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap