Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Global indices finished relatively flat compared to recent day's price action on the back of failed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and the ECB decision to speed up the ceasing of stimulus support. All eyes were on the USA and their CPI figures which came in as expected with a rise of 0.8% for February and the 12-month figure increased by 7.9%. The Federal Reserve is still expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points next week in a bid to stifle inflation.
The Nasdaq dropped 0.95% and Dow Jones performed a little better only falling 0.34%. The S&P 500 performed similarly registering a 0.43% drop. The European markets were a little weaker with the FTSE finishing the day down 1.27% and the DAX coming off worse with a 2.93% drop.
The European Central Bank met on Thursday to discuss the early easing of its economic stimulus effort to combat inflation. The bank announced its plans to make an early exit from its asset purchasing which surprised some analysts who expected no change. The bank indicated that it is currently more concerned with the rise in inflation than the potential fallout from the conflict.
They did, however, leave room for policy changes should things change. Oil again fell with Brent Crude oil fell to $109.49 a 1.5% drop. Gold found some support near $2000 as it continues attracting investors and traders alike.
Major commodities continue to be trading at elevated levels even with some tapering overnight. Bitcoin had a big fall overnight dropping back below USD 40,000 to $39,285 a 6.37% drop at 10.20 pm GMT. On Wednesday BTC had spiked on the back of an executive order from Joe Biden that would potentially expand the adoption of cryptocurrency assets.
However, the general sentiment between more risk on assets and inflationary fears has sparked the drop back below $40,000. The AUD/USD performed well and has continued its recent rise, moving 0.49%. The move has been on the back of Australia’s healthy commodity industry and its geographical distance from the conflict.
The NZD also rose against the USD holding its recent highs at 68 cents to $1.00. The AUD/EUR had another strong night rising 1.27%. The EUR showed weakness after the ECB’s policy shift and the lack of progression from the Russian and Ukraine peace talks and dropped 0.82% against the USD.
The global markets had a strong night of trading on the back of renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Equity indices were up, whilst commodities took a breather from their recent highs. Reports coming out of Europe indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has cooled off on the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and is open to discussing Russia’s demand for neutrality.
This may pave the way out of the conflict to which the market reacted positively. The US market had a strong night pulling back some of the previous losses. The Nasdaq closed 3.59% higher and the Dow Jones finished 2.00% higher.
The S&P 500 also closed up 2.57%. In Europe the DAX had a large rise moving up 7.92%. The FTSE also performed well finishing up 3.25%.
Commodities dropped overnight as Oil took a breather with Brent Crude sliding 12% to less than $110 a barrel, its steepest decline in two years. The UAE’s ambassador to the UN outlined plans to increase oil production and has encouraged OPEC to also increase supply. Gold also dipped, falling back below $2000 an ounce.
Benchmark wheat futures were down 6.6% after soaring to a multiyear high the day before. Wheat prices are still up 50% from the start of the year. Russia and Ukraine also issued warnings over the potential disruptions to gas supplies in western Europe with neither side willing to claim responsibility which may impact gas prices going forward.
Bitcoin had a strong day with the BTC/USD climbing 7.93%. Ethereum also had a nice rise with ETH/USD rising by 4.36% on the back of the more positive sentiment and move back to higher risk investments. FOREX Along with commodity prices, the USD was also down against most major currencies.
The EUR performed strongly against the USD rising 1.64%. The GBP/USD also performed well, rising 0.58%. The AUD/USD and the NZD/USD also performed strongly and continue their recent uptrend up 0.73% and 0.55% respectively.
All eyes will be on the CPI figures being announced later today. Some analysts believe that February's inflation has likely accelerated and is far from peaking. With the recent rise in oil and gas prices, these will likely be priced into the figures for March and April.
Some analysts believe that CPI will rise to 0.8% after rising 0.6% the prior month. The Federal Reserve is still expected to hike interest rates 25 basis points later this month.
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PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) reported its Q2 earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The US beverage and food company reported revenue of $20.225 billion for the quarter vs. analyst forecast of $19.513 billion. Earnings per share also reported above analyst expectations at $1.86 per share vs. $1.74 per share estimate. ''We are pleased with our results for the second quarter as our business momentum continued despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility and higher levels of inflation across our markets,'' Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta commented on the latest results following the announcement. ''Our results are indicative of our highly dedicated employees, the strength and resilience of our categories, agile supply chain and go-to-market systems and strong marketplace execution.
Our performance also gives us confidence that our investments to become an even Faster, even Stronger, and even Better organization by winning with pep+ are working. Given our year-to-date performance, we now expect our full-year organic revenue to increase 10 percent (previously 8 percent) and we continue to expect core constant currency earnings per share to increase 8 percent,'' Laguarta concluded. PepsiCo (PEP) chart The latest results did not have a huge impact on the shares price, the stock was down by 0.57% at $169.34 per share on Tuesday.
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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) reported its latest financial after the closing bell in the US on Monday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates, sending the stock price higher. The US software and hardware manufacturer reported revenue of $11.84 billion for the quarter (up by 5% year-over-year and up 10% in constant currency) vs. $11.61 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $1.54 per share vs. $1.37 per share estimate. ''We continued to improve our top line results again this quarter with total revenue growing 10% in constant currency,'' Oracle CEO, Safra Catz commented on the latest results after the announcement. ''These consistent increases in our quarterly revenue growth rate typically have been driven by our market leading Fusion and NetSuite cloud applications. But this Q4, we also experienced a major increase in demand in our infrastructure cloud business—which grew 39% in constant currency. We believe that this revenue growth spike indicates that our infrastructure business has now entered a hyper-growth phase.
Couple a high growth rate in our cloud infrastructure business with the newly acquired Cerner applications business—and Oracle finds itself in position to deliver stellar revenue growth over the next several quarters,'' Catz concluded. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) chart Share price of Oracle was up by over 10% on Tuesday after the latest earnings beat, trading at $70.71 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -1.61% 3 Month -12.26% Year-to-date -18.91% 1 Year -13.38% Oracle price targets Jefferies $80 JP Morgan $82 BMO Capital $86 Stifel $72 Cowen & Co. $98 Morgan Stanley $88 Oracle Corporation is the 45 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $197.79 billion.
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US indices retraced overnight as the market took a step back to assess the recent rally. The Nasdaq finished down 1.32%, the Dow Jones Index was down 1.29% and the S&P 500 was 1.23% in the red. Despite the selling, the session was still a far cry from recent sell-offs.
In Europe, the DAX slumped 1.31% after showing some strength early in the day. The FTSE continues to be the stronger of the indices due to its geographical protection against the Russian/Ukraine conflict and the rising oil and other commodity prices. CPI figures in the UK announced earlier in the day were slightly higher than expected at 6.2% vs an expected rate at 6%.
However, the UK has already enacted steps to combat inflation ahead of many other countries. Commodities Oil prices spiked again, as disruptions to Russian and Kazakh crude exports will reduce exports by up to 1 million barrels a day or 1% of global production due to storm damage. This caused oil shorts to squeeze as Brent Crude to pump 6.04% to 121.40 USD.
Gold continues to build a base as it closed the night up 1.21% to 1,944.03 USD per ounce. Natural Gas made early gains but was not able to hold its highs as it sold off from the supply zone at 5.3 USD. Natural gas is still holding the 5.10 USD support level as it ended the day o.41% down.
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had a choppy day as it remained range-bound for the session as the BTC/USD closed up 0.22% overall. Ethereum again continues to outperform BTC and rose by 1.44% as it gets closer to breaking out of the $3050 level. ETH/USD ended the day at $3016.
FOREX The AUD/USD touched $0.75 overnight but has not yet been able to push through the area of resistance. The pair is one to keep an eye on as movement in either direction may provide an opportunity for the market to pounce. The USD/JPY also continues to go up in an almost vertical direction.
The pair finished up 0.32% for the session. The GBP/USD finished 0.44% lower on the back of the UK inflation figures, with the pair trading at 1.3200 USD.