Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
The Kroger Company (KR) released its latest financial results for Q2 on Friday. The American grocery supermarket chain reported revenue of $34.638 billion for the quarter vs. $34.461 billion estimate. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates at $0.90 per share vs. $0.82 per share expected. "Kroger delivered strong second quarter results propelled by our Leading with Fresh and Accelerating with Digital strategy.
We are incredibly thankful for our dedicated associates who continue to deliver a full, fresh and friendly customer experience," CEO of Kroger, Rodney McMullen said in a press release. "Our consistent performance underscores the resiliency and flexibility of our business model, which enables Kroger to thrive in many different operating environments. We are applying technology and innovation to improve freshness, grow Our Brands, and create a seamless shopping experience so our customers can get what they want, when and how they want it, with zero compromise on quality, selection and affordability." We will continue to focus on providing affordable, fresh food to our customers, investing in wages and the associate experience, and creating zero hunger, zero waste communities because when we do those things well, we deliver attractive and sustainable shareholder returns," McMullen added. The Kroger Company (KR) chart The stock price of Kroger rose by around 5% on Friday, trading at $51.07 a share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +8.20% 3 months -0.02% Year-to-date +12.86% 1 year +19.71% Kroger price targets Credit Suisse $55 Oppenheimer $51 Guggenheim $57 Morgan Stanley $41 Deutsche Bank $53 BNP Paribas $60 The Kroger Company is the 450 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $36.27 billion. You can trade The Kroger Company (KR) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kroger Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The United States used 30.28 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2021, making them the world’s largest consumer of natural gas. Natural gas consumption in the United States has two seasonal peaks, largely reflecting weather-related fluctuations in energy demand. One of the biggest consumptions of gas is industrial, residential and commercial cooling and heating systems (eia, 2022).
As the world’s largest user of natural gas transitions out of summer, will this change indicate a decrease of their natural gas consumption? Could the decrease in demand for cooling be reflected on the technical charts? On a daily timeframe, natural gas has been on a steady upward trend since the end of June, in tandem with the beginning of summer in the US (seen on the chart below).
A trendline from the beginning of that trend until now can be drawn, and we can see recently that line has been broken by a daily candlestick, closing below the trendline which can indicate a change in trend for natural gas. After the strong break below of the trendline followed by multiple bearish daily candlesticks, we can consequently expect further downside movement for natural gas, after breaking through a strong support at $8.4, in all probability with natural gas currently sitting at $7.895 we could see natural gas come down to the next support level around $7.57.
NIO Q2 results have arrived NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its unaudited second quarter financial results on Wednesday. The Chinese electric vehicle maker reported revenue of $1.538 billion for the quarter, beating analyst estimate of $1.458 billion. Loss per share reported at -$0.20 per share vs. -$0.16 loss per share expected.
William Bin Li, founder, chairman and CEO of the EV company commented on NIO’s performance in Q2: ''We delivered 25,059 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022, representing a growth of 14.4% year-over-year despite the COVID-19 related challenges. With the teams’ concerted efforts, our deliveries started to recover and achieved 10,052 and 10,677 units in July and August, respectively." "The second half of 2022 is a critical period for NIO to scale up the production and delivery of multiple new products. The ES7, our first mid-large five-seater smart electric SUV based on NIO Technology 2.0 (NT2.0), has become a new favorite of the market with its superior performance, comfort and digital experience.
We witnessed a robust order inflow for the ES7 and started its deliveries at scale in August. We also look forward to starting the mass production and delivery of the ET5 in late September. With the compelling product portfolio and well-established brand awareness, NIO will attract a broader user base and embrace robust growth in the coming quarters," Li concluded.
NIO has delivered a total of 238,626 vehicles as of August 31, 2022. The company expects deliveries of between 31,000 to 33,000 in Q3 and revenue of between $1.913 billion and $2.030 billion. NIO Inc. (NIO) chart The stock was up by around 3% at the market open in the US on Wednesday, trading at $17.88 a share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -14.66% 3 months -16.05% Year-to-date -45.99% 1 year -55.14% NIO price targets B of A Securities $26 UBS $32 Mizuho $60 Morgan Stanley $34 Barclays $34 Deutsche Bank $70 Goldman Sachs $56 NIO Inc. is the 15 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $28.62 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate Oil both fell to their lowest levels since January as fresh recession fears swept the market. Brent dropped to $87 a barrel and WTI to $81. The prices dropped following OPEC’s decision to cut the production by 100,000 barrels a day of supply from October.
In recent months with the Russian and Ukraine conflict raging, OPEC had to lift production as supply dipped. However, with the decreasing health of the global economy and a incredibly strong US dollar demand for overseas oil has dipped. Poor economic data from China and its Covid zero strategy has also pushed concerns of weaker demand.
In fact, China’s crude oil important dropped by 9.4% from a year earlier signalling the slowdown in demand. Furthermore, with the US federal reserve expected to remain hawkish until inflation is back to a sustainable level, in the short term there is little resistance in the way of the US dollar continuing to grind its way higher, further pressuring the price of oil. Whilst the current dip may provide some relief for consumers, with uncertainty from the Kremlin and Putin potentially capping their energy exports, the short term volatility will likely continue.
As it can be seen from the charts below, both WTI and Brent have broken down through their key support levels. The price may struggle to fall lower in the immediate short term and may need to consolidate in the short term before pushing lower again.
With central banks aggressively hiking interest rates to combat inflation, one specific country stands alone in maintaining a dovish stance. The country is Japan, and the consequence of the Central Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish policy has been a massive weakening of its currency. Against almost all other currencies the JPY has been depreciating aggressively.
Specifically, the USD/JPY and the NZD/JPY are shaping as potentially trading opportunities. Both trading opportunities are largely based on a technical breakout as opposed to a pure fundamental breakout. NZD/JPY This currency pair is forming into a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Importantly the price has been contracting and the range getting smaller. This shows that the price is reaching an equilibrium point between buyers and sellers. However, at some point and the price will not be able to contract further and will have to break out either to the upside or the downside.
The general rule of a symmetrical triangle is to wait until the price breaks before taking a position because the price has not indicated if it will break upward or downward. In addition, the RSI indicates a similar pattern showing consolidation in the same type of triangle. Therefore, a break of this RSI triangle may correlate and support a break out on the actual price.
USD/JPY This pair has seen an even more extreme move upward. After pulling back to the recent support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, the price has risen again and is looking to test the highs at 139.5 JPY. In order to find a new target the chat needs to be zoomed out to the monthly in order to see the next resistance point which is at 145JPY.
This would also take the price to almost 25 year highs. With more economic data to come out of the USA later this week.
Baidu Inc. (BIDU) reported its unaudited Q2 results on Tuesday. The Chinese technology company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter. Revenue reported at $4.424 billion for Q2 (down by 5% year-over-year) vs. $4.395 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $2.36 per share for the quarter vs. $1.59 per share estimate. Robin Li, CEO of Baidu: "Despite a challenging macro environment caused by Covid-19, Baidu Core generated RMB23.2 billion in revenues in the second quarter, while Baidu AI Cloud revenues maintained rapid growth momentum of 31% year over year and 10% quarter over quarter." "Apollo Go further solidified its position as the world's largest autonomous ride-hailing service provider. Apollo Go completed 287K rides in the second quarter, and accumulated one million rides on July 20, becoming an important alternative means of people's everyday travel in the Yizhuang region of Beijing.
Moreover, in a momentous landmark, Apollo Go became the first provider to offer fully driverless ride-hailing services – i.e. completely without human drivers present in the car - on open roads in Chongqing and Wuhan, allowing us to further scale up our operations at an accelerated pace," Li added. "Baidu Core delivered a non-GAAP operating margin of 22% in the second quarter, up from 17% in the first quarter of 2022, as we continued to optimize our costs and enhance operational efficiency," said Rong Luo, CFO of the company. "Going forward, we remain committed to quality revenue growth and sustainable business models," Luo concluded. Baidu Inc. (BIDU) chart Shares of Baidu were down by around 7% on Tuesday at $137.49 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +2.82% 3 months -1.72% Year-to-date -7.29% 1 year -12.15% Baidu price targets Benchmark $270 Citigroup $223 Barclays $235 JP Morgan $125 Mizuho $285 HSBC $180 Baidu Inc. is the 334 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $47.08 billion.
You can trade Baidu Inc. (BIDU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Baidu Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap