Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Bitcoin has recently tested the lows of its price range that it reached in the immediate aftermath of the FTX crisis. A long opportunity has been brought about after price bounced off these lows near $15,863. The hourly chart shows a potential good risk reward entry.
The trigger for the entry is not just the fact that the price has bounced off the support zone but is also the strong bullish candle stick at the support level. The selling was absorbed at the support zone by the buyers and could not close below the wicks of either candle as seen by the length of the wicks. Furthermore, the above average volume for these candles indicated that the selling was exhausted and that the buyers were willing to take on the supply.
For this bounce to continue, a strong green candle that closes above the opening price of most recent red candlestick will hopefully support the breakout at $16,204. As seen on the chart, an obvious target is the $17,000 level which is the top of the recent price range.
JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD, HKEX: 9618) reported its latest earnings results for the three months that ended September 30, 2022, on Friday. The Chinese e-commerce company had a solid quarter – beating revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. JD reported revenue of $34.373 billion (up by 11.4% from the previous quarter) vs. $34.145 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.885 per share vs. $0.685 per share expected. ''JD.com's relentless focus on user experience, cost and efficiency has allowed us to continuously expand our user base while delivering profitable growth,'' Sandy Xu, CFO of the company said in a press release. ''Our pre-emptive efforts earlier this year to promote operating efficiency and financial discipline have proven timely and effective given the ongoing external challenges. We will continue to focus on capturing the vast opportunity presented by China's retail market by striving to be the partner of choice for China's consumers and enterprises,'' Xu added. Share of JD were down by around 3% on Friday at $56.01 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +33.14% 3 month: +60% Year-to-date: -19.91% 1 year: -38.70% JD.com price targets Barclays: $59 Citigroup: $85 Goldman Sachs: $89 Benchmark: $106 JP Morgan: $58 Mizuho: $90 HSBC: $91 Morgan Stanley: $85 JD.com is the 146 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $89.10 billion. You can trade JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD, HKEX: 9618) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: JD.com Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA, HKEX: 9988) announced the latest financial results on Thursday. The Chinese e-commerce giant reported revenue of $29.124 billion (up by 3% year-over-year), falling slightly short of $29.288 billion expected. Earnings per share topped analyst estimates for the quarter at $1.816 per share (an increase of 15% year-over-year) vs. $1.683 earnings per share estimate. ''We delivered solid results this past quarter despite ongoing macro environment challenges, which is a testament to our resilient business model and unmatched customer value proposition,'' Daniel Zhang, Chairman and CEO of the company said in a press release. ''The uncertainties of the global landscape have only reinforced our resolve to focus on building capacity that will yield sustainable, high-quality growth for our customers and our own business over the long term.
The trust of our shareholders has enabled Alibaba’s development over the past 23 years, and we are committed to improving shareholder return as we continue to strengthen the foundations for Alibaba’s future,'' Zhang added. Alibaba also announced an increase to its share buyback program: ''We have continued to take a holistic approach to improve operating efficiency and cost optimization throughout the company that resulted in adjusted EBITA growth of 29% year-over-year. With strong net cash position and cash flow generation, as of November 16, 2022, we had repurchased approximately US$18 billion of our shares under our existing US$25 billion share repurchase program.
In addition, our board has approved to upsize the share repurchase program by another US$15 billion and extend the program to the end of fiscal year 2025.'' Shares of Alibaba rose on Thursday – up by around 8% at $84.52 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +18.47% 3 month: -5.97% Year-to-date: -28.18% 1 year: -40.58% Alibaba price targets Truist Securities: $125 Barclays: $114 Morgan Stanley: $110 B of A Securities: $155 Bernstein: $130 Benchmark: $205 JP Morgan: $140 HSBC: $141 Citigroup: $172 Alibaba is the 37 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $227.68 billion. You can trade Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA, HKEX: 9988) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Alibaba Group Holding Limited, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported its latest financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. The US technology giant beat revenue estimates but fell short of earnings per share (EPS) expectations for the quarter. The company reported revenue of $5.931 billion (down by 17% year-over-year) vs. $5.781 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.58 per share (down by 50% year-over-year) vs. $0.70 per share. ''We are quickly adapting to the macro environment, correcting inventory levels, and paving the way for new products,'' founder and CEO of NVIDIA, Jensen Huang said after posting the latest results. ''NVIDIA’s pioneering work in accelerated computing is more vital than ever. Limited by physics, general purpose computing has slowed to a crawl, just as AI demands more computing. Accelerated computing lets companies achieve orders-of-magnitude increases in productivity while saving money and the environment,'' Huang added.
NVIDIA expects revenue of around $6 billion in Q4. The stock was down by 4.54% on Wednesday at $159.09. The share price rose by around 2% in after-hours following the results.
Stock performance 1 month: +33.32% 3 month: -12.37% Year-to-date: -45.37% 1 year: -45.09% NVIDIA price targets Credit Suisse: $210 Oppenheimer: $225 Barclays: $140 Deutsche Bank: $140 Citigroup: $210 BMO Capital: $210 Mizuho: $205 Stifel: $165 Needham: $170 NVIDIA is the 14 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $400.98 billion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The EUR has been on a ‘recovery rally’ since it fell below parity level with USD earlier this year. With inflationary pressures potentially easing across the world the USD has finally taken a breath. The currency which has been haven for many market participants in dealing with the high volatility finally saw a dip after weaker than expected US CPI figures last week.
Since this time the USD Index or DXY has fallen by nearly 4.5% which is a significant drop. This has had an overall positive impact on currencies that were struggling such as the AUD, JPY and of course the EUR. Whilst the EUR has provided a positive move in recent weeks and days there is still some geopolitical concerns especially with the news of a missile killing two citizens in Poland earlier this week.
Technical Analysis The weekly chart shows that price is currently testing a long terms resistance level at 1.0352. This level acted as support for almost 7 years prior to being broken and therefore has become a significant level. In addition, the price is also fighting against the 50-week moving average which is at 1.0588.
The 50 week moving averages is also a short-term long target for long trades. Looking more closely at the daily chart, the price is showing an important signal that it has not done since May 2020. The price is testing the 200-day moving average.
If it can break through it may represent a bullish signal. The last time the price broke through this level it managed to go from 1.10 to 1.23. This time around, the currency pair is having to fight inflationary pressures which may create a headwind.
The price action is still showing a potential price target of 1.06 in the near term and if it can break through the 200-day moving average and a longer-term target of 1.15.
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain reported total revenue of $152.8 billion for the quarter (up by 8.7% year-over-year) vs. $147.668 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $1.50 per share (up by 3.4% year-over-year) vs. $1.321 per share estimate. ''We had a good quarter with strong top-line growth globally led by Walmart and Sam’s Club U.S., along with Flipkart and Walmex.
Walmart U.S. continued to gain market share in grocery, helped by unit growth in our food business. We significantly improved our inventory position in Q3, and we’ll continue to make progress as we end the year. From The Big Billion Days in India, through our Deals for Days events in the U.S. and a Thanksgiving meal that will cost the same as last year, we’re here to help make this an affordable and special time for families around the world.
We have an amazing group of associates that make all this happen, and I want to say thank you,'' President and CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon said in a press release. Walmart raised its full-year outlook after its strong Q3 results and announced a $20 billion share buyback program. Shares of Walmart were up by 6.54% on Tuesday at $147.14 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +10.69% 3 month: +54% Year-to-date: +62% 1 year: +71% Walmart price targets Jefferies: $165 Keybanc: $155 Morgan Stanley: $150 DA Davidson: $163 Cowen & Co.: $165 Stifel: $149 Oppenheimer: $155 Credit Suisse: $145 Deutsche Bank: $162 Citigroup: $162 Walmart is the 14 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $402.87 billion. You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap