Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) announced its financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2022 before the opening bell in the US on Thursday. The American software company reported revenue of $4.433 billion, falling slightly short of Wall Street forecast of $4.438 billion. Earnings per share reported at $3.40 per share for the quarter, above analyst estimate of $3.345 per share. ''Fueled by our ground-breaking technology, track record of creating and leading categories and consistent execution, Adobe delivered another record quarter,'' Shantanu Narayen, chairman and CEO of Adobe said in a press release. ''Adobe achieved record revenue and strong profitability in the quarter, demonstrating that our products are mission-critical to individuals, small businesses and the world’s largest enterprises,'' said Dan Durn, executive vice president and CFO of the company. ''Our operational rigor combined with our strong engine of innovation are driving growth across our platforms and will fuel future growth as the digital economy continues to expand,'' Durn added.
The company repurchased approximately 5.1 million shares during the quarter. Adobe also announced that it has entered into final stages to acquire Figma, a web-first collaborative design platform for around $20 billion in cash and stock. ''Adobe’s greatness has been rooted in our ability to create new categories and deliver cutting-edge technologies through organic innovation and inorganic acquisitions,'' ''The combination of Adobe and Figma is transformational and will accelerate our vision for collaborative creativity,'' Shantanu Narayen commented on the acquisition of Figma. Adobe Inc. (ADBE) chart Shares of Adobe were down by around 15% on Thursday, trading at $313.35 a share.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -29.45% 3 months -15.16% Year-to-date -45.38% 1 year -53.43% Adobe price targets UBS $415 Stifel $500 Baird $450 Deutsche Bank $500 Wells Fargo $425 Mizuho $480 Citigroup $388 Barclays: $440 Adobe is the 70 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $144.34 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Salesforce financial results announced Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) reported its latest financial results for its fiscal second quarter on Wednesday. World’s leading customer relationship management (CRM) company reported revenue of $7.72 billion (up 22% year-over-year) vs. $7.692 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $1.19 per share for the quarter vs. $1.03 per share expected. ''We had another strong quarter, with revenue of $7.7B growing 22% year-over-year and 26% in constant currency, showing yet again the durability of our business model,'' Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce said following the latest results. ''And, we’re thrilled to initiate our first-ever share repurchase program to continue to deliver incredible value to our shareholders on our path to $50 billion in revenue in FY26,'' Benioff added. ''Our results demonstrate the strength and diversity of our product portfolio across regions, industries and segments,'' said Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce. ''In this more measured buying environment, our Customer 360 portfolio is even more strategic and relevant as our customers focus on productivity, efficiency and time to value,'' Taylor concluded.
The company expects revenue of $7.82 to $7.83 billion for the fiscal third quarter Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) chart The stock was up by 2.28% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $180.19 a share. The stock fell by around 5% in the after-hours due to future outlook. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -0.16% 3 months +12.75% Year-to-date -29.17% 1 year -30.99% Salesforce price targets Citigroup $189 BMO Capital $223 Mizuho $245 Morgan Stanley $273 Piper Sandler $220 Deutsche Bank $260 JP Morgan $275 Barclays $218 Wells Fargo $235 Salesforce.com Inc. is the 58 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $179.10 billion.
You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Salesforce.com Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
XAUUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. As last week's closing of the buying bar was above the 1960 support or the latest high in price on the Weekly timeframe, it indicates continued buying momentum that will allow the price of gold to recover. It can rise further to test the 2070 resistance level, which is a key resistance at the weekly time frame level or the price level that gold has ever hit the most in history.
But even so, the price of gold remains negative in the short term. There may be a fall to adjust the consolidation or sideways around the 1985 and 1976 support, which are important support levels in the H4 and H1 timeframes that are worth watching. because if the price cannot go down deeper than the above two support levels The direction of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Corresponds to the large timeframe in the medium term where the price is Up Trend.
And in the event that the price of gold cannot continue to rise, but there is a breakout of the 1985 and 1976 support levels, it can come down with continuous selling pressure. Daytime support at the 1960 price level or the latest price high in the Weekly timeframe are the next targets to watch. AUDUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 AUDNZD price bears a negative view on the short and medium term.
Due to the continuous decline in the Weekly timeframe, the price is likely to bear down and can continue to fall. After the price has corrected sideways on the Daily timeframe, when looking at the H4 timeframe, a sharp swing of the price can be seen, which is a sideways movement between support 1.06730 and resistance 1.07930. Rara then broke out the support 1.06730 down with a sell candlestick with more momentum than a buy candlestick.
Therefore, it can be expected that Price may continue to decline to retest the support 1.04690 or the previous Low on the Weekly timeframe. GBPUSD Analysis 10 – 14 April 2023 The GBPUSD trend is currently rallying to test the 1.24470 resistance with continued buying momentum as seen by the weekly timeframe buying pressure candlestick, although last week's closing price was truncated. Any intestine dumper Still, the price has yet to show a strong sell candle on the Weekly timeframe, indicating a clear uptrend in both the short and medium term.
Forecasting that price, there is a tendency for the price to correct sideways at the 1.24470 resistance area before rising to test the next resistance at 1.26660 on the daily timeframe level, where the key support is 1.22700, which is the time level support. The H4 frame predicts that the price may retrace to test. If the price cannot stand on the resistance of 1.24470 and continue to rise
Equity markets US markets dipped last night with the Dow finishing down for the first time in 4 sessions. This came as the streak of better-than-expected economic data came to an end with initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumping to a one-month high last week. Retail giant and Dow 30 component Walmart (WMT) also weighed on the index dropping 6.5 per cent after it missed quarterly profit estimates and predicted a low-single digit rise in fiscal 2022 net sales.
Source: Yahoo Finance Whilst US Markets are flat for the week, UK and Asian equity markets have performed well with signs of China's economic recovery continuing lifting the Hang Seng and good news on UK vaccination progress sending the FTSE 100 higher. Source: Bloomberg The ASX200 again hit post COVID highs this week before pulling back slightly. Optimism in the Australian economic recovery was bolstered this week with another drop in the unemployment rate and vaccine rollouts imminent.
Forex markets FX markets were mixed this week, the US dollar strengthened modestly against most major currencies, with the exceptions of CAD, AUD and GBP. Source: Bloomberg Resource linked currencies AUD and CAD performed well as prices for Copper and Iron ore continued to run hot, with increased demand from China and ongoing COVID related supply issues underpinning the price of these resources. Source: marketindex.com.au GBP outperformed this week amid continued optimism over the nation’s vaccine rollout, with the pound touching the highest level versus the euro since March last year.
Source: GO MT4 Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) continued its downtrend setting a new low price for 2021 and within touching distance of the lows set in November. With markets risk on as vaccines rollout and positive signs of an global economic recovery the lustre has been taken off the precious metal for now. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices broke above $60 per barrel touching as high as $62, a level not seen since January 2020.
Severe winter storms and rolling blackouts in the oil producing state of Texas have crippled the oil industry, causing an output drop of more than 4 million barrels a day - almost 40% of the nation’s crude production. Monday, 22 February 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0.821 6.645 0.323 0.011 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.131
We had an eventful week on global markets with the inauguration of a new US administration and a dovish stance from the European Central bank fuelling hopes of extended fiscal stimulus in the new year. Equity markets Risk appetite got a boost this week from a push by US authorities for nearly $2 trillion in additional spending and plans to jumpstart a federal response to the COVID pandemic. US equity markets had the best post inauguration performance since the 1980’s driving the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indices to record highs.
The NASDAQ was also helped along by big beats from Netflix and Intel who reported earnings this week. With this lead Australia's share market hit 11-month highs, with help from an improved unemployment rate supporting investor optimism. European markets also performed well after ECB’s decision to reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy last night.
Source: Twitter COVID With Executive Orders from the new US administration seeking to accelerate the rollout of vaccines and the seeming peak in US COVID cases there was optimism this week from major Wall St analysts that we could be seeing “the beginning of the end of the COVID crisis" in the US. Goldman's top economist Jan Hatzius, writes that "a vaccine-driven reduction in hospitalizations is likely to kick off the growth rebound through relaxed restrictions and some reductions involuntary consumer social distancing." Source: Zerohedge Forex market While record planned US stimulus helped push equities higher it also created a headwind for the US Dollar which continued its downtrend. All major currencies performed strongly against the greenback this week.
Source: Bloomberg Aussie Dollar AUDUSD strengthened this week driven by US dollar weakness and a better than expected unemployment rate of 6.6% indicating continued recovery of the Australian economy from the COVID economic shock. AUD is trading in a tight range and has managed to hold the important 0.77c support level. Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) had a strong week on the back of US dollar weakness and stimulus hopes, it bounced strongly from the 1820 -1800 support zone making 2 week highs and being up around 2% for the week at time of writing.
Negotiations in the US on the particulars of the proposed stimulus bill and positive or negative news on regarding COVID are expected to play a part in the next few weeks of future price movements. Source: GO MT4 Cryptocurrencies It was a tough week for Cryptos with flag bearing tokens Bitcoin and Ethereum among others sliding dramatically after recent stellar rallies. Bitcoin dropped 10% alone on Thursday and down almost 20% on the week.
The drop seems to be a long overdue correction and sustained profit taking, it wasn’t helped on Thursday by a report in a trade blog suggesting that there had been what’s known as a double purchase, where the same “coin” is used in two separate transactions. This rumour went viral casting doubt on the security of the Bitcoin blockchain. Industry veterans and people familiar with blockchain technology downplayed the notion, but with so many new investors with a poor understanding of blockchain technology the damage was done.
From a chart technician's point of view, Bitcoin broke the lower barrier of the wedge pattern it has been consolidating in and has headed to the important 30000 support level. Source: GO MT4 Monday, 25 January 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0 0 0 0.012 0 0 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity markets US markets dropped sharply overnight as inflation fears returned on the back of Treasury yields hitting their highest levels in more than a year. Investors are concerned the Federal Reserve will allow inflation to accelerate, after Wednesday’s policy meeting where they reaffirmed their commitment to easy money policies. As seen previously the hardest hit stocks were the growth small caps and Tech companies on the Russell and NASDAQ, as traders rotated out of these sectors into traditional value stocks tracked by the Dow Jones index.
The Dow did touch all time highs during the session before fading in the afternoon. Dow Jones down 153 (0.46%) NASDAQ down 409 (3.02%) S&P 500 down 58 (1.48%) Russell 2000 down 69 (2.94%) Source: Yahoo Finance The Australian equity market had a choppy week, mirroring its US counterparts as economic enthusiasm battled with fears of rising interest rates. The ASX 200 dropped yesterday with the sell-off continuing today as much better than forecast employment figures saw market expectations of rising interest rates coming sooner than previously expected.
Source: Yahoo Finance World equity indices are mostly flat for the week as markets see sawed between all time highs and steep declines. Evidence of rotation from Growth and momentum stocks into traditional value stocks in the US is evident from Dow's outperformance of the NASDAQ and S&P 500. The ASX 200 also dropped over the week as rising Aussie and US bond yields plus a strong employment report had investors reassessing predictions of when the RBA would start a tightening cycle on rates.
Source: Bloomberg Forex markets FX markets saw a mostly stronger US dollar against most major currencies. Rising bond yields in the US have mostly driven this move higher - higher interest rates make the US dollar a more attractive investment than its counterparts. Traditional safe haven currencies the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen were the only major currencies to outperform the US dollar this week, on a choppy performance in equity markets.
Source: Bloomberg Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) was the other safe haven that rallied against the US dollar, being modestly up for the week at the time of writing. Despite a mostly rising US Dollar, gold ground higher on inflation fears spurred by rising rates in bond yields. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices dropped sharply this week as US crude found stiff resistance around the $67 a barrel price level after a recent strong run up.
US Crude plunged more than 9% in yesterday’s session at one point, on concerns new COVID lockdowns in Europe will sap demand, and whether the recent run up is justified with the current progress of world economic recovery. Source: GO MT4 Bitcoin Bitcoin gapped on the Monday open to set a record price above $60k US per token. This after an extremely volatile week which saw the cryptocurrency ranging from 53k – 60k Whether the cryptocurrency has run out of steam at these levels or is preparing for another push higher remains to be seen.
Source: GO MT4 Monday, 22 March 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0.081 0 0.01 0.024 0 0.098 0 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 1.454 0 0 0 0 1.072