Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
American manufacturer of farm machinery and industrial equipment Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) announced the latest financial results for the quarter ending January 29, 2023, before the market open in the US on Friday. Revenue was reported at $12.652 billion for the quarter (up by 32% year-over-year) vs. $11.337 billion expected. Earnings per share also topped analyst estimates at $6.55 per share vs. an estimate of $5.565 per share.
The company expects revenue of between $8.75 to $9.25 billion in the fiscal year 2023. CEO commentary ''Deere’s first-quarter performance is a reflection of favorable market fundamentals and healthy demand for our equipment as well as solid execution on the part of our employees, dealers, and suppliers to get products to our customers,'' CEO of the company, John C. May said in a press release. ''We are, at the same time, benefiting from an improved operating environment, which is contributing to higher levels of production,'' May concluded.
Stock reaction Shares of Deere were up around 5% at the market open on Friday, trading at $427.32 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -1.38% 3 months: -2.43% Year-to-date: -6.02% 1 year: +5.89% Deere & Company stock price targets Stifel: $477 Citigroup: $505 BMO Capital: $450 Wells Fargo: $485 Morgan Stanley: $522 Argus Research: $475 Credit Suisse: $582 JP Morgan: $440 UBS: $452 Deutsche Bank: $374 Goldman Sachs: $420 Citigroup: $425 Deere & Company is the 114 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.74 billion. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Bollinger Bands are one of the most popular indicators that FX and CFD traders use, invented in the 1980’s they are a technical analysis tool that are widely used by short and long term traders. The main uses for Bollinger Bands is determining turning points in the market at oversold and overbought levels and also as a trend following indicator. Like any technical indicator Bollinger Bands should be used with your own analysis to confirm trades and help set entry and exit levels, they are a fairly simple indicator that focuses on price and volatility only and shouldn’t, in my opinion be used in isolation.
While effective, to use them successfully you will need to be aware of the fundamentals and other technical indicators such as major support or resistance levels. How Bollinger Bands are calculated Bollinger Bands are composed of three lines. The middle line is a simple moving average (SMA), the default period being 20.
The upper and lower bands are the SMA plus or minus 2 standard deviations by default, the SMA period and Deviations can be adjusted in the settings of the indicator if desired, but the standard settings are the most popular settings among traders. When the price hits the upper band the market could be seen as “overbought” when it hits the lower band it could be seen as “oversold”, they can also be used as levels where trends are confirmed, e.g. hitting upper band could be seen as the start of a strong uptrend and vice versa. Day Trading strategies using Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are used mainly in two different trading styles, for contrarians looking for overbought and oversold levels to enter fade trades, or confirmation of trend for trend following systems. Both systems have their pros and cons, as with most indicators it will depend on the market “fee” for the time used, a choppy whipsawing market will see the fading system work very well, a strong trending market will see the trend following system work very well.
As with any technical system, the selection of the market to trade and being aware of the fundamentals driving the FX market at that time are critical.. Just had a Fed meeting where they surprised with a 100bp rate hike? Don’t use the fade system on USD pairs!
A good technical system I have found is useful is a mixture of both of these strategies, using the Bollinger Bands to confirm a trend, then using the fading strategy to trade pullbacks of this trend. Lets look at the example below from the AUDNZD – 5 minute chart from the 23 rd March 2023 In the above example, which is a common price action across all FX pairs, you would be using the Bolling Bands to confirm a down trend after a close below a major low. Once the possible trend is confirmed, we will be using the “overbought” level of the upper band to enter a short trade, with a take profit exit on 2 closes below the lower band, indicating the market may have gone into “oversold” territory and was time to take some money off the table.
This process would be repeated while lower highs were being made, a close above a major recent high along with a close above the upper Bollinger Band would indicate the trend may have come to an end. This can be seen on the chart below, later in the session on the same pair. At this point you would exit the short selling of the down trend and reverse to a long bias, or if your analysis on fundamentals were negative for this pair, wait for a new downtrend to form for another shorting run.
The Bollinger Squeeze Strategy Another strategy popular with FX traders is known as the Bollinger squeeze strategy. A squeeze occurs when the price has a big move, then consolidates in a tight range, this also sees the Bollinger bands go from wide to “squeeze” in a much narrower range, hence the name of the strategy. A trader would be looking for a breakout and close below or above the Bollinger bands of this squeezed range for a trade entry, see the example below from the EURUSD 5 Minute chart on 23 rd of March 2023 When the price breaks through the upper or lower band after this period of consolidation a buy or a sell signal is generated.
An initial stop is traditionally placed just above (or below in a long position) the range of the consolidation. TP rules could be similar to the previous strategy, i.e. multiple closes below the lower Bollinger Bans in the case of a short, or using the middle Bollinger Band as a trailing stop in the move is explosive and looks to continue. Summary As you can see there are multiple uses for Bollinger Bands in a FX day traders toolbox, including using them for overbought and oversold trade signals in a trending market and the Squeeze strategy where an explosive move often follows a period of consolidation.
There are also many more strategies using this indicator which I encourage you to research for yourself.
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) reported Q4 2022 financial results on Monday. The German pharmaceutical company reported revenue of $4.563 billion for the quarter, topping analyst estimate of $3.897 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also beat analyst estimates at $9.876 per share vs. $8.296 EPS expected.
CEO commentary ''We made significant progress in 2022 by advancing our pipeline and launching the world’s first Omicron BA.4/BA.5 adapted bivalent COVID-19 vaccine. In addition, multiple new modalities achieved encouraging clinical data and we progressed nine new programs into clinical trials,'' said professor Ugur Sahin, M.D., CEO and Co-Founder of BioNTech said in a press release. ''As we look to 2023 and beyond, we plan to continue investing in our transformation with a focus on building commercial capabilities in oncology and working towards registrational trials. Our mid-term goal is to seek approval for multiple oncology products in cancer indications with high unmet medical need,'' he added.
The stock was down by -3.59% at market close on Tuesday at $123.19 per share. Stock performance 1 month: -5.55% 3 months: -29.76% Year-to-date: -17.72% 1 year: -25.70% BioNTech SE price targets HC Wainwright & Co.: $210 JP Morgan: $142 Goldman Sachs: $156 Morgan Stanley: $216 B of A Securities: $239 SVB Leerink: $224 Canaccord Genuity: $192 BioNTech SE is the 576 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $29.99 billion. You can trade BioNTech SE (NASDAQ: BNTX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: BioNTech SE, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
This week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) released its decision to hold interest rates at the current level of 4.50%. In the rate statement, the BoC indicated that inflation has eased to 5.9%, and the expectation for weaker economic growth and a moderation of wage growth could see inflation continue on its downward trajectory. The BoC highlighted that it projects that CPI inflation could reach the 3% level by the middle of the year, with core inflation reaching the target level of 2% in time to come.
Following the release of the decision, the Canadian Dollar weakened, with the USDCAD trading higher to test the 1.38 round number resistance level. This move higher was compounded by the recent strength of the DXY, a result of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where he indicated that the Federal Reserve was ready to speed up rate hikes if the data warranted. The USDCAD could continue with the uptrend to trade significantly higher toward the next key resistance level of 1.39, especially if the US Non-Farm employment change to be released on Friday is stronger than expected.
However, it is likely that the USDCAD could first retrace briefly to the 1.37 price level, which aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level before a continuation to the upside. This brief retracement is also supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it indicates a likelihood to turn down from the overbought region.
This week, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y data was released at 6.8% (Forecast: 7.2% Previous: 7.4%) which signals a slowdown in inflation growth. In addition, the consecutive release of lower-than-expected CPI data highlights the possibility of a new trend of decreasing inflation for the Australian economy. With the view that inflation has peaked and is possibly on a downturn, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could decide to pause further rate hikes at its upcoming cash rate decision on Tuesday next week.
Keeping interest rates at 3.60% could lead to the AUDUSD trading slightly lower. The AUDUSD is currently trading between the key resistance level of 0.6765 and the support level of 0.6565, with the formation of a bearish pennant. If the AUDUSD maintains below the resistance level, look for a potential breakout to the downside, to retest the key support level of 0.6565.
This move lower could be driven by the recovery in strength on the DXY and if the RBA decides to hold interest rates at 3.60%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an inflation indicator that is closely watched by the markets and policymakers as a gauge of economic fluctuation and price stability. Generally, central banks set and adjust their monetary policy mandate in order to achieve a target level of 2-3% which would allow for moderate growth in prices. As the major economies emerge from the cloud of the Covid pandemic, the new battle is for the central banks to bring down inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began on its path of aggressive interest rate hikes in May 2022 as the Australian CPI had been climbing steadily to reach 6% by that same period. However, despite the rate hikes, inflation continued to rise to a peak of 8.4% in December 2022. This week, the Australian CPI y/y data was released at 7.4% which highlights an easing in inflation growth, potentially a lagging impact from the cumulate interest rate increases from the RBA.
Immediately following the release of the CPI data, the AUDUSD spiked down from the 0.6730 level to retest the round number key support level of 0.67. However, as the RBA has indicated that “further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target”, the current slowdown in inflation growth could provide the RBA with more confidence that rate increases could lead to it achieving its target. As a result, sustained moves to the downside have been limited as the market anticipates another 25bps rate hike to come in the following week.
The AUDUSD currently trades under the 0.6780 resistance area which coincides with the 23.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Anticipating a bullish correction to the upside, as markets expect further interest rate increases, look for the price to break above the resistance level and the bearish trendline to trade higher toward the next key resistance level of 0.6870. This potential move higher is also supported by a crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).