Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting with AUDUSD, we’ve seen a very strong and tight range develop between a high of 0.6818 to a low of 0.6564 since late February, with the AUD moving in unison with risk sentiment, recently a push lower in this pair has been driven by US debt ceiling concerns, and haven flows into the USD.
Using an equidistant four-part grid the buy and sell zones to take advantage of this range trading opportunity become clear. While this range continues, buying in the green zones and selling in the red zones has so far been very successful. This looks likely to continue while the aforementioned US debt ceiling impasse remains in place, though traders will need to be on top of any developments, a resolution is likely to see risk roar back and the AUD take a leg up.
The other opportunity is the relative underperformance of the AUD vs its close neighbour, NZD. This has seen AUDNZD drop below its 10 year mean of 1.07, giving mean reversion traders an opportunity to buy this pair at a discount. Weekly chart of AUDNZD, showing how this mean reversion trade has worked over the last 8 years.
To help with entries, a shorter time frame chart can be used, below is the 4-hour chart showing a strong support zone has formed between 1.0650 – 1.0580 during the last month, where price has tested on multiple occasions before moving back to the 1.07 level. These are two of my favourite trading styles I’ve used over the years, but as always, have an exit plan and keep aware of macro happenings if you are looking to incorporate this style of trading into your toolbox. AUDUSD – US debt ceiling negotiations AUDNZD – RBA and RBNZ rate expectations
In the lead-up to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision this week, the market has seen significant turmoil. Firstly from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, followed by the news that Credit Suisse’s largest financial backer is unlikely to provide further financial support. This led to Credit Suisse stock plunging by more than 28% and taking with it, the Eurozone bond yields and the Euro.
President Lagarde from the ECB had been signaling to the market, on multiple occasions, since the previous meeting that the ECB will hike rates by 50bps at the March meeting. However, with the current uncertainty especially with the banking failures seen in the US, the market has begun pricing in the possibility that the ECB hikes rates with more caution by deciding on 35bps rather than 50bps at the March meeting. This has led the EURUSD to reverse all recent gains, turning down from the 1.0750 price level to trade along the key support level of 1.0540.
If the ECB releases a decision to hike rates by less than 50bps, this would be a major red flag to the market and also indicate a slowdown in its path of monetary policy tightening, which could see the EURUSD continue with the current downward momentum. If the price breaks below the current support level and the interim price level of 1.0440, the EURUSD could see significant moves downside, supported by the cross-over of the MACD, with the next key support level at 1.0220, which was the previous swing low in November 2022. Alternatively, if the ECB maintains its previous stance and decides to hike rates by 50bps at this meeting, the EURUSD could see brief relief.
However, it would be unlikely that the price would reverse significantly, with the current market uncertainties likely to maintain the downward pressures and the 1.08 resistance level likely to hold firm.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) announced the latest financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Walgreens reported revenue of $34.862 billion for the quarter ending February 28, 2023 (up by 3.3% year-over-year) vs. $33.528 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.16 per share (down by 27.2% year-over-year) vs. $1.103 per share estimate. CEO commentary "WBA exited a solid second quarter with acceleration in February, adding to our confidence in driving strong growth in the second half of the year. With the closing of VillageMD's acquisition of Summit Health, WBA is now one of the largest players in primary care, with best-in-class assets across the care continuum.
Both Walgreens and Boots are performing well by delivering compelling value to consumers, playing a critical role as community health destinations, and successfully navigating a challenging environment. We will continue to take bold actions to create sustainable long-term shareholder value," CEO of the company, Rosalind Brewer said in a press release. The stock was up by around 1% in pre-market trading following the latest results.
The stock is down by 11.83% year-to-date at $32.96 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -7.29% 3 months: -14.02% Year-to-date: -11.83% 1 year: -31.12% Walgreens Boots Alliance price targets Barclays: $43 Evercore ISI Group: $35 Loop Capital: $45 Morgan Stanley: $37 Truist Securities: $42 JP Morgan: $40 Credit Suisse: $41 Mizuho: $41 Cowen & Co.: $54 Deutsche Bank: $50 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is the 605 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $28.41 billion. You can trade Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) announced Q4 and full-year financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain posted solid results for the quarter – beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. The company reported revenue of $164.048 billion (up by 7.3% year-over-year) vs. $159.759 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.71 per share for the quarter vs. $1.518 EPS estimate. Full-year revenues reached $611.3 billion (up by 6.7% vs. a year prior) and EPS at $6.29 per share. CEO commentary ''We’re excited about our momentum.
The team delivered a strong quarter to finish the year, and as our results in the last two quarters show, they acted quickly and aggressively to address the inventory and cost challenges we faced last year. We built momentum in the third quarter and that continues. We are well-positioned to start this fiscal year,'' Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart said in a press release following the latest results.
Stock reaction The results did not have a big impact on the share price Tuesday. The stock was up by 0.61% at $147.21 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +3.29% 3 months: -2.53% Year-to-date: +3.91% 1 year: +6.77% Walmart stock price targets Cowen & Co.: $180 Telsey Advisory Group: $165 Morgan Stanley: $161 Gordon Haskett: $155 Barclays: $159 Oppenheimer: $160 Tigress Financial: $176 UBS: $168 Credit Suisse: $170 Bernstein: $159 Walmart is the 18 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $397.31 billion.
You can trade Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The overall risk appetite in the market has increased this week following the news that the banking sector’s issues appear to have been resolved. As a result, the Japanese Yen’s status as a safe haven currency may have been hurt in this risk-on market environment. Paired with the renewed recovery in strength in the DXY, this has led to the USDJPY bouncing off the key support and round number price level of 130 to trade steadily higher.
This move higher was sustained as the price broke through the descending trendline, with the USDJPY rising toward the 133-round number resistance level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 100-period moving average (MA). While the USDJPY could retrace briefly at this resistance area, look for the USDJPY to break beyond the 133 resistance level and 100 MA to signal a continuation of the upward move, with the next resistance level of 135 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level a possible target level. However, watch out for the developing news from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) following recent comments that the BoJ could tweak the current Yield Curve Control (YCC) if the economic and price conditions justify phasing out stimulus.
Widening of the target level or removal of the YCC could lead to a significant strengthening of the Japanese Yen.
The USDJPY had been trading steadily higher in February, from the 128.50 support level, up toward the 137 round number resistance level. This move was driven by a combination of fundamental reasons (strengthening of the DXY and overall weakness of the Japanese Yen) and technical setup (the golden cross, where the 50-period Moving Average crossed over the 200-period Moving Average). This week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to release its latest decision on its Policy Rate and the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement.
The BoJ is expected to persist with its current stance, maintaining an ultra-lose monetary policy approach as it is the last BoJ policy meeting for Governor Kuroda. However, last week, the yield on the 10-yr Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) consolidated slightly above the 0.5% ceiling adjusted by the BoJ on 20th December 2022. Following the announcement of the increased yield limit, the Japanese Yen strengthened significantly, with the USDJPY trading down from 137.30 to 130.60.
The markets are now watching if the BoJ would take on a similar action again. As the DXY weakened toward the end of the week, the USDJPY was dragged lower, reversing from the 137 resistance level, down to the 135.80 price level to test the 50-period Moving Average. If the price breaks below the Moving Average support level, the USDJPY could trade down to the key support level of 134.50 which coincides with the 38.3% Fibonacci Retracement level.
If the BoJ were to further adjust the yield limits on the 10-yr JGBs, the USDJPY could see a continuation of the downside beyond 134.50, with the next key support level at the 133 price area, formed by the round number and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.