Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
USD dipped in Wednesday’s session after the CPI inspired surge on Tuesday. The US dollar index (DXY) hitting resistance at the 105 level and dropping to a low of 104.65. Reports of Fed Chair Powell downplaying Tuesday's hotter than expected CPI along with the Fed's Goolsbee stating US inflation is still consistent with the Fed's path back to target weighing somewhat on yields and the USD.
EURUSD rallied modestly, holding the key 1.07 level where it found support on Tuesday. A soft USD and beats in Q4 employment and industrial production data support the pair. Euro watchers have ECB president Lagarde testifying at the EU parliament later in the session to look forward to.
JPY saw small gains against the USD with lower UST yields across the curve benefitting the Japanese currency. Though with USDJPY still well above the “intervention” level of 150 some jawboning from Japanese officials materialised. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki saying he is closely watching FX market moves with a strong sense of urgency and currency diplomat Kanda noting he is watching FX moves and will take appropriate actions if needed on FX.
GBP was the G10 underperformer with GBPUSD setting one week lows after cooler than expected UK CPI data. The headline Y/Y maintaining a 4.0% pace, beneath the 4.2% forecast. UK GDP is ahead for Sterling traders where a contraction of -0.2% is expected.
US machine manufacturer Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) announced the latest financial results before the opening bell on Thursday. Deere achieved revenue of $10.486 billion for the three months ending 28/1/24, beating analyst estimate of $10.303 billion. Revenue was down by 8% vs. the same period year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.23 vs. $5.264 per share estimate. EPS decreased year-over-year by 4.88%. Net income for the quarter reached $1.75 billion.
The company cut net income forecast for fiscal year 2024 from $7.75-$8.25 billion to $7.50-$7.75 billion. Company overview Founded: 1837 Headquarters: Moline, Illinois, United States Number of employees: 82,200 (2022) Industry: Agricultural machinery, heavy equipment Key people: John C. May (Chairman, CEO & President) CEO commentary "Deere's first-quarter performance underscores the effectiveness of our Smart Industrial operating model and the dedication of our workforce, enabling improved performance across economic cycles that surpasses historical benchmarks," John C.
May, CEO of the company commented on the latest results. "Moreover, we remain committed to empowering our customers to improve their productivity and sustainability through ongoing investment in the next generation of solutions, as evidenced by our partnership on satellite communications to expand rural connectivity announced this quarter," May concluded his statement to stockholders. Stock reaction The stock fell by over 5% on Thursday. Shares were trading at around $363.36 a share – the lowest level since 12/12/23.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.49% 1 month: -4.39% 3 months: -3.68% Year-to-date: -8.81% 1 year: -9.51% Deere & Company stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $430 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $385 Canaccord Genuity Group: $375 TD Cowen: $396 Bank of America: $422.50 HSBC: $486 USB Group: $408 Credit Suisse Group: $551 Stifel Nicolaus: $460 Oppenheimer: $458 Deutsche Bank: $407 DA Davidson: $510 Citigroup: $475 BMO Capital Markets: $425 Wells Fargo & Company: $490 Deere & Company is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $101.73 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Deere & Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) released the latest earnings results for fiscal Q2 of 2024 after market close in the US on Wednesday. The US telecommunications company achieved revenue of $12.8 billion for the quarter vs. $12.706 billion. Revenue was down by 6% vs. the same period the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.87, above Wall Street estimate of $0.836 per share. EPS was down by 1% year-over-year. Cisco announced a 3% raise on its quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share for all shareholders on record as of 4/4/24.
For fiscal Q3 of 2024, the company expects revenue in a region of $12.1 to $12.3 billion. EPS expected at between $0.84 to $0.86 per share. Company overview Founded: 1984 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 84,900 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications Key people: Chuck Robbins (CEO & Chairman) CEO commentary "We delivered a solid second quarter with strong operating leverage and capital returns," Chuck Robbins, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We continue to align our investments to future growth opportunities.
Our innovation sits at the center of an increasingly connected ecosystem and will play a critical role as our customers adopt AI and secure their organizations," Robbins concluded. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.29% at the end of Wednesday’s session at $50.28 a share. The stock fell by around 4% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 5 day: +0.32% 1 month: -0.74% 3 months: -6.29% Year-to-date: -1.17% 1 year: +3.05% Cisco stock price targets UBS Group: $55 Melius Research: $55 DZ Bank: $50 Rosenblatt Securities: $51 Piper Sandler: $50 Oppenheimer: $54 Tigress Financial: $76 Bank of America: $60 Deutsche Bank: $58 Barclays: $53 Citigroup: $55 Morgan Stanley: $56 Jefferies Financial Group: $59.50 Evercore ISI: $63 BNP Paribas: $45 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Cisco Systems Inc. is the 54 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $203 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''.
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Cisco Systems Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) reported the latest financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Coca-Cola reported revenue of $10.948 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) for the last three months of 2023 vs. $10.675 billion expected. Earnings per share reached $0.49 (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $0.489 per share estimate.
The company achieved revenue of $45.8 billion in 2023, up by 6% from 2022. EPS reached at $2.69 per share, up by 8%. Coca-Cola paid a total of $8 billion in dividends in 2023.
Company overview Founded: 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 82,500 (2022) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) CEO commentary "During the year, our people and partners rose to meet new challenges, allowing us to excel globally and deliver in a dynamic world," CEO of the beverage company, James Quincey said in a statement to shareholders. "As we begin a new year, we’re confident that our all-weather strategy, powerful portfolio and harmonized system will continue to create value for our stakeholders in 2024 and for the long term," Quincey looked ahead. Stock reaction Shares were down by 0.87% on Tuesday at $59.18 a share – the lowest since 25/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: -1.55% 1 month: -1.63% 3 months: +3.35% Year-to-date: +0.14% 1 year: -0.97% Coca-Cola stock price targets Citigroup: $68 Barclays: $66 Jefferies Financial Group: $64 Morgan Stanley: $65 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Bank of America: $60 Royal Bank of Canada: $70 Wedbush: $71 HSBC: $74 Evercore ISI: $70 Deutsche Bank: $63 Wells Fargo & Company: $68 Credit Suisse Group: $70 UBS Group: $70 The Goldman Sachs Group: $62 The Coca-Cola Company is the 39 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $254.80 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Canadian mining company Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the US market opened on Wednesday. The world's second-largest gold miner achieved revenue of $3.126 billion for Q4 2023, up from $2.943 billion in Q3 2023 vs. $3.128 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $0.276, exceeding analyst estimate of $0.205.
The company announced a $0.10 per share dividend for all shareholders as of 29/2/24. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Toronto, Ontario, Canada Number of employees: 18,421 Industry: Metals and mining Key people: John L. Thornton (Executive Chairman), Mark Bristow (President and Chief Executive Officer) CEO commentary CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, had this to say in a letter to shareholders: ''In true Barrick fashion, we kept our focus, dealt with the challenges, progressed our long-term strategic plans and delivered on some of our key objectives.
Most significantly, we have sustained our industry-leading organic growth outlook and are still projecting a 30% increase in gold equivalent3 production by the end of this decade.'' Stock reaction The stock was down by 0.42% during the day on Wednesday after the latest results were announced, trading at $14.09 a share – lowest since 3/11/22. Stock performance 5 day: -5.73% 1 month: -9.54% 3 months: -9.83% Year-to-date: -22.19% 1 year: -18.03% Barrick Gold stock price targets Raymond James: $24 CIBC: $23 BMP Capital Markets: $27 Citigroup: $18 TD Securities: $22 Scotiabank: $25 UBS Group: $23 Jefferies Financial Group: $15 CSFB: $20 Barclays: $28 The Goldman Sachs Group: $22 Fundamental Research: $19.02 Barrick Gold Corporation is the 743 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $24.77 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The largest financial services company in the world, Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), released the latest earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the market closed in Wall Street on Thursday. The US company reported revenue of $8.634 billion (up by 9% year-over-year) vs. $8.554 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.41 (up by 11% year-over-year) vs. $2.339 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1958 Headquarters: One Market Plaza, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 26,500 (2022) Industry: Payment cards services Key people: Ryan McInerney (CEO), Alfred F. Kelly Jr. (Executive Chairman), Oliver Jenkyn (Group President & Global Markets), Kelly Mahon Tullier (Vice Chair & CPO), Chris Suh (CFO) CEO commentary "Our 2024 fiscal year is off to a solid start. In our first quarter, net revenues grew 9% and GAAP EPS grew 20%, driven by relatively stable growth in overall payments volume and processed transactions, plus strong growth in cross-border volume.
Consumer spending remained resilient. Looking ahead, we continue to see significant opportunities across consumer payments, new flows and value added services," CEO of Visa, Ryan McInerney, said in a press release to investors. Stock reaction Shares of Visa ended Thursday up by 0.35% at $272.61 a share.
The stock dipped in the after-hours by around 3% after the latest financial results were released. Stock performance 5 day: +1.67% 1 month: +4.69% 3 months: +17.87% Year-to-date: +4.71% 1 year: +21.32% Visa stock price targets Citigroup: $306 Mizuho: $265 KeyCorp: $300 UBS Group: $305 Jefferies Financial Group: $295 BMO Capital Markets: $280 Barclays: $278 Raymond James: $287 Wedbush: $270 Oppenheimer: $252 HSBC: $266 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $293 Wells Fargo & Company: $270 Credit Suisse Group: $275 Visa Inc. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $560.26 billion. You can trade Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Visa Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap