Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) recently briefly overtook Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) as the fourth largest company in the world after the share price rose to a new all-time high of $746.11 on 14/2/24. Since then, the share price has fallen by over 9%, pushing the company back to sixth place. On Wednesday, investors were awaiting the latest results from NVIDIA, which were released after the US market closed, and they did not disappoint.
The company achieved revenue, which topped Wall Street estimates at $22.1 billion vs. $20.395 billion expected. Revenue was up by whopping 265% from the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $5.16 vs. $4.593 per share estimate.
EPS grew by 486.36% year-over-year. Full year revenue increased by 126% to $60.9 billion. Company overview Founded: 1993 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 26,196 (2023) Industry: Computer hardware, computer software, cloud computing, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, GPUs Graphics cards Consumer electronics Video games Key people: Jensen Huang (President and CEO) CEO commentary "Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point.
Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations, " Jensen Huang, CEO of the US company said in a press release to shareholders. " Our Data Center platform is powered by increasingly diverse drivers — demand for data processing, training and inference from large cloud-service providers and GPU-specialized ones, as well as from enterprise software and consumer internet companies. Vertical industries — led by auto, financial services and healthcare — are now at a multibillion-dollar level," Huang concluded. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.85% at the end of trading on Wednesday as investors were waiting for the latest earnings results.
The stock rose by over 5% in after-hours trading. One to watch at the open on Thursday. Stock performance 5 day: -8.99% 1 month: +9.60% 3 months: +38.05% Year-to-date: +35.80% 1 year: +224.05% NVIDIA stock price targets Rosenblatt: $1,100 Cantor Fitzgerald: $775 Piper Sandler Companies: $850 Loop Capital: $1,200 Wedbush: $800 Oppenheimer: $850 Wells Fargo & Company: $840 Susquehanna: $850 UBS Group: $850 Mizuho: $825 Morgan Stanley: $750 The Goldman Sachs Group: $800 Raymond James: $700 Tigress Financial: $790 KeyCorp: $740 DA Davidson: $410 NVIDIA Corporation is the 6 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.660 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap, Macrotrends
The much awaited NVDA Q4 earnings didn’t disappoint with the tech giant knocking it out of the park, handily beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. For the quarter, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.16 on revenue of $22.1 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $4.60 on revenue of $20.4 billion.
For context the same period last quarter Nvidia reported EPS of $0.88 on $6.1 billion, a huge jump which saw NVDA stock surge over 7% after hours, touching the all-time highs set earlier in February. Gold rallied for the fifth straight session despite hawkish leaning FOMC minutes which saw a dip in XAUUSD to test the 2020 support level before rebounding. AUD and NZD were modestly up against the USD, with NZD outperforming its Aussie peer, sending AUDNZD below 1.06 and testing the 2024 lows, this despite Aussie Q4 wage price data coming in hotter than expected, rising to 4.2% against an expected 4.1%.
Some pricing in of a RBNZ hike next week seemingly the driver of NZD strength in this cross.
Chinese electric vehicle company Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) announced Q4 and 2023 fully-year results before the US market opened on Monday to kick off a new trading week. Li Auto achieved revenue of $5.878 billion (up by 136.4% from Q4 2022) vs. $5.599 billion expected. EPS was reported at $0.594 per share in Q4, above estimate of $0.446 per share.
Full-year revenue reached $17.44 billion in 2023. The company delivered 376,030 cars, an increase of 182.2% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 19,396 (2022) Industry: Automotive Key people: Li Xiang (Chairman and CEO), Yanan Shen (President), Tie Li (CFO) CEO commentary Li Xiang said this in a statement to investors after the company announced better-than-expected results: "Undeterred by the fiercely competitive NEV market in 2023, Li Auto achieved an outstanding performance with its three Li L series models.
Full-year deliveries grew by 182.2%, reaching 376,030 vehicles, making us the best-selling brand among NEVs priced above RMB300,000 in China. In December, we released the OTA version 5.0 for Li L series. With comprehensive enhancement in autonomous driving and smart space, we bring even more exceptional experience to family users.
With our significantly increasing scale, continued research and development advancement, and consistently improving operating efficiency throughout the year, 2023 marks our best financial performance yet, setting a solid foundation for Li Auto’s growth to diversify its product matrix and cater to a broader range of user needs in 2024." Stock reaction The latest results not only had a positive impact on Li Auto stock but on the whole EV market in general. Li Auto shares surged by over 18% on Monday, trading at $41.34 a share – the highest level since 20/11/23. Here is how other EV stocks performed on Monday.
Stock performance 5 day: +27.35% 1 month: +44.89% 3 months: +1.47% Year-to-date: +7.65% 1 year: +72.93% Li Auto stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $41 Bank of America: $60 Barclays: $48 HSBC: $43 Morgan Stanley: $40 Li Auto Inc. is the 465 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $41.18 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Li Auto Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Business software company Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 earnings results after the market closed in the US on Thursday. The company achieved revenue that was in line with analyst estimates at $3.386 billion. Revenue increased by 11% year-over-year.
Earnings per share topped Wall Street estimates at $2.63 (up by 20% year-over-year) vs. $2.297 per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1983 Headquarters: Mountain View, California, United States Number of employees: 18,200 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software Key people: Sasan Goodarzi (CEO), Scott Cook (Chairman) CEO commentary "We had another strong quarter as consumers and small businesses continue to rely on Intuit’s platform to power their prosperity," Sasan Goodarzi, CEO of Intuit said in a statement to investors. "We have great momentum innovating across our products, and we're well on our way to becoming the trusted assistant that our customers use to fuel their financial success," Goodarzi added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 3.08% on Thursday, trading at $657.92 a share.
There was no great deal of movement in after-hours trading as investors digested the latest results. Stock performance 5 day: -1.49% 1 month: +2.01% 3 months: +15.98% Year-to-date: +4.70% 1 year: +58.88% Intuit stock price targets Wells Fargo & Company: $710 Oppenheimer: $678 KeyCorp: $700 Susquehanna: $700 Citigroup: $651 Barclays: $660 Piper Sandler: $642 BMO Capital Markets: $640 Morgan Stanley: $570 Stifel Nicolaus: $600 Mizuho: $625 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $470 HSBC: $520 Wolfe Research: $660 Argus: $640 Deutsche Bank: $575 Credit Suisse Group: $570 Intuit Inc. is the 66 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $183.13 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ: INTU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Intuit Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD was ultimately flat in Thursdays session after a rollercoaster of a ride, DXY printed a low in the European session of 103.43 before rallying up to the 100 Day SMA at 104.10 after better than expected US Jobless claims. Flash PMIs for February were mixed with a fall in Services but a rise in Manufacturing, DXY heading into the APAC session just below the 104 level. JPY was softer vs the Dollar with USDJPY holding above the psychological 150 level which has become a short term support level.
Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda saying that Japan's trend inflation is heightening and the BoJ will make appropriate monetary policy decisions, failing to offer much support for the Yen. AUD and NZD - saw notable strength during the APAC and European session tracking higher with equities after the big beat in NVDA earnings. Both currencies came off highs though after USD rallied on strong jobless claims data.
For the fifth straight session AUD again underperformed its Kiwi rival, seeing AUDNZD dropping well below 1.06, setting new lows for 2024 and not far off the lows of 2023. Gold again tested the support at 2020 USD an ounce, and again held in a whipsawing session. Trading at around 2024 heading into the APAC session.
American Semiconductor manufacturing company Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) released fiscal first quarter 2024 financial results before the US market open on Wednesday. The company topped analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter in a row. Analog achieved revenue of $2.513 billion for the quarter ending 3/2/24 vs. $2.497 billion expected.
Revenue decreased by 23% vs. the same period last year. EPS reported at $1.73 vs. $1.705 per share estimate. EPS was down by 37% year-over-year.
Analog also raised its quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.92 a share to be paid on 15/3/24 to all shareholders as of 5/3/24. Company overview Founded: 1965 Headquarters: Wilmington, Massachusetts, United States Number of employees: 24,450 (2022) Industry: Semiconductors Key people: Vincent Roche (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary Company CEO, Vincent Roche said this in a letter to investors: "ADI delivered first quarter revenue and profitability above the midpoint of our outlook, despite the continued difficult macroeconomic environment" "Consistent with our prior view, we expect customer inventory rationalization to largely subside in our second quarter, and thus enter the second half in a more favorable business backdrop. Importantly, we are well positioned to capitalize on the inevitable upswing given our replenished die banks, short lead times, and agile hybrid manufacturing model," Roche concluded his statement.
Stock reaction The latest results had a postive impact on the stock on Wednesday. Shares were up by nearly 2%, trading at $193.03 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +3.39% 1 month: -2.86% 3 months: +5.45% Year-to-date: -2.99% 1 year: +4.83% Analog Devices stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $205 Wolfe Research: $225 Barclays: $185 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $200 TD Cowen: $210 Truist Financial: $206 Susquehanna: $210 UBS Group: $210 Piper Sandler: $175 Oppenheimer: $215 Morgan Stanley: $225 Evercore ISI: $210 Analog Devices Inc. is the 163 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $95.76 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Analog Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Analog Devices, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap