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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
Salesforce the worlds #1 customer relationship management (CRM) platform has just announced record fourth quarter and full fiscal 2022 results exceeding expectations. The pandemic-led shift to hybrid work has kept up a strong demand for its cloud-based software. Total fourth quarter revenue was $7.33 billion, an increase of 26% year over year, and 27% in constant currency.
Salesforce’s subscription and support revenue for the fourth quarter also rose 24.7% to $6.83 Billion. “We had another phenomenal quarter and full-year of financial results,” said Marc Benioff, Chair and Co-CEO of Salesforce. With our customers’ success driving our financial success, we’re generating disciplined, profitable growth at scale quarter after quarter,” said Bret Taylor, Co-CEO of Salesforce. “Our Customer 360 platform has never been more strategic or relevant in driving the growth and resilience of our customers around the world.” Salesforce has also been working to integrate Slack after its $27.7 billion purchase of the instant messaging platform, as well as adding products in a bid to sell more tools to existing customers. Analysts see a lot of room to increase sales of the company’s flagship software that lets businesses manage and interact with customers.
Salesforce believes the software market can grow double digits over the next several years, as companies across the globe continue to have conversations about facilitating hybrid and remote work models. Salesforce has not slowed down Slack’s roadmap, with the platform launching Slack Huddles and Clips in the second half of 2021. Salesforce said it expects $1.5 billion in sales form Slack in its fiscal year 2023.
Salesforce’s stock price has been on a downhill ride in the past several months, falling more than 30% from it’s November record high of over $310. Shares have recently increased over 4% and are currently trading at $209.65. Salesforce (CRM) Salesforce.com Inc. is the 51 st largest company in the world with total market cap of $205.75 billion Gavin Patterson the Chief Revenue Office said the global sanctions against Russia arising out of the war with Ukraine will have “minimal impact” on Salesforce’s business and haven’t forced the company to take any actions.
You can trade Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Reuters, Yahoo Finance, itnews
In the midst of the Russian, Ukraine crisis, there are huge ramifications that affect us all in the global market. Energy is a critically important export. Russian oil and gas exports make up a fifth of Russia's economy and half of its earnings from exports.
The country is the European Union's biggest oil trading partner, according to the latest data from Eurostat. Russia also ranks 5 th in the world for oil consumption, accounting for about 3.7% of the world's total consumption of 97,103,871 barrels per day. They are also ranked 3 rd in oil production, which is the most important factor when it comes to costs, sitting close to the oil powerhouses of United States and Saudi Arabia.
They are also some way ahead of China, who sits in 4 th lagging behind Russia by a wide margin of 6 million barrels per day (Fig.1). As you can imagine any disruption to any country in this list on a normal day, would trigger a price movement. So a war and subsequent sanctions on a country who controls so much consumption and production of the precious liquid would make more than a ripple.
Global benchmark April Brent crude climbed $3.06, or 3.1%, to end at $100.99 a barrel. The contract, which expired at the end of the session, settled at its highest since September 2014, posting a gain of 10.7% for the month. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.13, or 4.5%, to settle at $95.72 a barrel.
The front-month contract finished at the highest since August 2014, up 8.6% for the month, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Latest Price Action Over the last few days, we have seen Oil prices finished higher each closing day, a sharp increase over night of 9.72% to start today’s session at $106.33 (Fig.2). Fig. 2 WTI Oil followed suit and had a jump of 11.5%, a sharp increase over night to start today’s session at $106.75 (Fig.3).
Fig. 3 The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. and other major oil-consuming countries were weighing the release of 70 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles in response to surging crude prices. This is to try to stabilize the oil prices and make up the supply that Russia would normally deliver pre sanctions. It’s important to tread carefully when trading assets such as these commodities, which are driven by Geopolitics, unforeseen supply and demand levels and corporate institutions around the world who have their own agendas in mind when thinking of their bottom line.
Profits. Sources: QUARTZ, worldometers.info, The Wall Street Journal, Tradingview.
All prices in this article will be in USD unless otherwise stated. Rio Tinto Group is an Anglo-Australian multinational and the world's second-largest metals and mining corporation, behind BHP, producing iron ore, copper, diamonds, gold and uranium. Rio Tinto made history last week by posting the second biggest profit in Australian corporate history, the biggest belonging to BHP.
They have decided to reward their shareholders with Australia’s biggest ever dividend worth $16.8 billion, which is roughly $23 billion AUD. The $21.4 billion of underlying earnings for 2021 was the biggest in all of Rio Tinto’s 149 year history. The achievement has allowed a dividend payment of $4.79 per share.
The final and special dividends took Rio Tinto’s total dividends for the year to a record-breaking $10.40 per share. The total dividends paid by Rio Tinto for the year is almost doubled the previous year’s $5.57. The greatest profit recorded by an Australian company was BHP.
They set this record in 2011 with a recorded $21.68 billion in underlying profit. Comparing both companies, BHP’s record profit was when the Australian dollar was much stronger than today. This means the profit announced by Rio Tinto would be much bigger than BHP, in Australian dollars, $22.5 billion vs $23 billion AUD.
This does not take into account inflation. Rio Tinto’s great result was largely attributed to its most important commodity, iron ore. However, the decade high prices for copper and aluminium have also bolstered their profits.
The shareholder returns unleashed by Rio Tinto over the past four years rank as the four biggest in the company’s history, meaning shareholders in the miner are enjoying a golden era of returns. The “golden era” was initially built on the proceeds of asset divestments, however, Australian mining companies have been fortunate due to rival mining companies in Brazil suffering massive dam failures in 2019. Australia was able to capitalise on the weak iron ore supply in the aftermath.
The strong operating environment for mining companies like Rio Tinto has only continued since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic had prompted governments to announce stimulus spending on infrastructure which drove strong demand for the raw materials which were produced by the likes of Rio Tinto and BHP. Most of Rio’s record setting dividend will be paid to shareholders outside of Australia; the company’s biggest shareholder is Chinese state-owned entity Chinalco while most investors own the stock through the London Stock Exchange.
All in all, the mining industry is currently experiencing a strong year. Rio Tinto, being one of the biggest players, has set the benchmark for other companies in the industry. The strong start to the year is a good indication as to where the industry is going.
If you would like to take this opportunity to invest in Rio Tinto Group and don’t already have a trading account, you can register for a Shares or Shares CFD account at GO Markets. Sources: ASX, Wikipedia, AFR.
Results are in – NVIDIA reports NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) announced its second quarter results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The US technology giant reported revenue that exceeded analyst expectations at $6.704 billion for the quarter vs. estimate of $6.699 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.51 per share, narrowly beating estimate of $0.50 per share for the second quarter. ''We are navigating our supply chain transitions in a challenging macro environment and we will get through this,'' founder and CEO of NVIDIA, Jensen Huang said in a statement following the latest results. ''Accelerated computing and AI, the pioneering work of our company, are transforming industries.
Automotive is becoming a tech industry and is on track to be our next billion-dollar business. Advances in AI are driving our Data Center business while accelerating breakthroughs in fields from drug discovery to climate science to robotics.'' ''I look forward to next month’s GTC conference, where we will share new advances in RTX, as well as breakthroughs in AI and the metaverse, the next evolution of the internet. Join us,'' Huang added.
NVIDA expects revenue of around $5.9 billion for the third quarter, which is short of analyst estimate of $6.9 billion for the quarter. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) chart Shares of NVIDIA were little changed on Wednesday, up by 0.24% at $172.12. The stock fell in the after-hours by around 3% on future outlook.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -3.19% 3 months +1.46% Year-to-date -41.44% 1 year -22.47% NVIDIA price targets Truist Securities $216 Mizuho $250 Raymond James $240 Barclays $200 Deutsche Bank $175 Citigroup $285 Keybanc $230 NVIDIA Corporation is the 13 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $429.17 billion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has increased the Country’s cash rate by half a percent to combat the rising inflation in its latest cash rate change. The increase was in line with most analyst’s expectations as the RBA continues to fight inflation and bring it back into the 2-3% range. The current forecast from the RBA suggests that CPI inflation will peak near 7.75% over 2022, before falling to 4% during 2023, and then settling at 3% in 2024.
A key source of concern for the RBA was and continues to be the current spending habits of Australian households. Importantly, as the cost of goods has risen due to inflation, pressure has built on household budgets and their spending habits. This has been caused by both the supply chain issues and the increased cash rate.
Furthermore, consumer confidence has fallen, and “housing prices are declining after the large increases in recent years.” This shows how interest rate hikes are impacting the lives of Australians and their spending habits. Another important factor at play is the tightening of the job market. The unemployment rate dropped in June to 3.5%, the lowest rate in 50 years, and job vacancies and job advertisements continue to be at high levels.
However, the bank does not expect to be able to hold these levels and predict the rate of unemployment will reach 4% by the end of 2024 as a result of the current slowing economic growth. In response to the announcement, the ASX200 responded positively as investors saw the announcement as bullish, shooting up 0.38% in the 30 minutes after the announcement. Conversely, the AUDUSD dropped back below $0.70 dropping to $0.6970 in the 30 minutes immediately after the announcement.
The RBA will later this week further update the market with its monetary policy statement which will provide further clarity on its decision-making and the current sentiment.
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN:ASX) is the flagship carrier of Australia and the country's largest airline by fleet size. The company has had a resurgence in 2022 and the share price has rebounded from the lows of the pandemic. The “Flying Kangaroo” as it’s known throughout the industry, said that it would report an underlying pre-tax profit of up to A$1.3bn (US$815mn) in the six months to December, doubling market estimates, as strong demand for flights offsets higher fuel costs and inflation.
The improved financial performance has come from the company transferring the increased costs via increased fairs. The share price for the airline soared to $5.83, its highest level since November 2021, on the back of the strong profit forecast. Qantas’s pre-pandemic share price was sitting at $7.35 AUD and saw its financial performance suffer with 3 consecutive years of more than A$1bn losses because of pandemic restrictions and lost A$25bn of revenue during the period.
Net debt, which spiralled to almost A$6.5bn during the pandemic, is expected to fall to between A$3.2bn and A$3.4bn by the end of the year, well below the airline’s A$3.9bn target range. Alan Joyce, Chief Executive gave a promising statement on the company’s performance advising, “It’s been a really challenging time for the national carrier, but today’s announcement shows how far we’ve come. Since August, we’ve seen a big improvement in our operational performance and an acceleration in our financial performance.” The report in profits has come too late for investors to receive a final dividend this year, with the company deciding not to reverse its decision to halt dividend payments.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for investors, as Alan Joyce has led a A$400mn share buyback this year. Share buybacks do not put cash in the hands of investors as a dividend does. However, they do support shareholders by reducing the overall share count.
This tends to boost the share price, given that under the laws of supply and demand, less supply leads to a rise in price. If you are interested in venturing into trading stocks, FX or commodities, you can create access to one of our MetaTrader 5 trading CFD platforms with GO Markets here or call our Melbourne based office on 03 8566 7680 to discuss your trading goals with our account managers and to get started. Sources: https://www.ft.com/, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/, https://www.fool.com.au/