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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
NAFTA - What Happens Next The North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into effect on 1 st January 1994 and it formed one of the World’s largest free trade zones. It laid down the foundations for a strong economic growth for the United States, Canada and Mexico. While there is ample evidence of its shared positive economic impact, but how about its costs to the United States?
Over the last couple of months, the question has been raised as to how positive NAFTA is, especially to the United States. During the Presidential election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that the Agreement is only beneficial to Canada and Mexico and has threatened to end it with the two nations. » Impact on the US economy Since NAFTA has been in place, the United States trade with Canada and Mexico has more than trebled, growing faster than trade with countries around the world. Most statistics suggest that NAFTA had positive impact on the US GDP of around 0.5 percent (total addition of up to $80 billion) to the US economy.
One of the reasons why NAFTA is criticised is for destroying around half a million jobs and lowering the wages. The US has also seen its trade deficit has widening during that period. An exodus of US manufacturers across the border saving on labour costs has resulted in thousands of US manufacturing jobs lost to their Mexican neighbours.
That is one of the reasons Donald Trump is pushing to renegotiate the agreements and bring back jobs to the US. US manufacturing jobs from 1993 to 2016 Source: BLS It is hard to say with certainty if NAFTA is directly responsible for the decline in the manufacturing jobs sector since the biggest drop we have seen was from around 2000 to 2002. It is worth pointing out that China joined the World Trade Organisation on 11 th December 2001 so that may have had an impact on the drop in the manufacturing jobs too.
It has been noted that the automotive industry was one of the most affected industries since the agreement came into place back in 1994. Forex - USDMXN and USDCAD since Trumps decision to renegotiate NAFTA Click to enlarge Click to enlarge Source: GO Markets MT4 » What happens next? It looked like the NAFTA agreement was on its way out but on 27 th April Donald Trump announced he received phone calls from both the Prime Minister of Canada and the President of Mexico to make him change is his mind.
President Trump decided to make a surprising U-turn and will instead renegotiate NAFTA but on only one condition – if the deal is a fair for all three countries as he is pushing to bring back jobs to the US. There is no timeframe of when renegotiations will begin between the three countries but it is worth keeping an eye for further development as it will most likely re-shape world trade in the years to come. -By Klavs Valters
It’s been one year since the trade renegotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, the United States and Mexico began. Since then we have seen tough rhetoric on how the agreement should look like moving forward from each country, especially the United States. But are we finally getting closer to an agreement?
About NAFTA The North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into effect on 1st January 1994 and it formed one of the World’s largest free trade zones and laid down the foundations for a strong economic growth for the United States, Canada, and Mexico. However, in recent years the agreement has come under a lot of scrutiny from the US, with President Trump calling it "the worst trade deal ever made", which has led to renegotiations between the three nations. Latest developments It appears that the negotiations between the US and Mexico have been going well, with both reportedly close to agreeing on a deal in their talks to revise the NAFTA deal.
However, Canada has not been part of the latest part of the discussions. “Right now, it appears they are getting incredibly close to finishing the discussions between the U.S. and Mexico,” said Inu Manak, who has monitored the talks for the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington. Even though the talks between the US and Mexico are going well, there will be no final deal on NAFTA unless Canada agrees to re-join the renegotiations. In a recent tweet, Donald Trump praised the new President of Mexico, however, he had a dig at Canada’s tariffs and trade barriers, threatening to tax Canadian made cars if they cannot make a deal.
In response to the President Trumps tweet, Canada Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said that they will not change the course of the renegotiations. “Our focus is unchanged,” Adam Austen, a press secretary for Canada Foreign Affairs wrote in an email. “We’ll keep standing up for Canadian interests as we work toward a modernized trilateral NAFTA agreement.” Both US and Mexico are working hard to get a deal signed by the Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto before he departs office on 1st December to give way to the President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The Canadian negotiating team have been on the sidelines in the recent part of discussions but are expected to join the negotiation table soon. However, the Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo said that there are currently no timeframe for when the Canadian counterparts will join the discussions. “We have to make sure that the U.S.-Mexico bilaterals are done,” Guajardo said, adding that Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland will “hopefully” be a part of the discussions soon.
Financial markets The US Dollar has strengthened by around 5% since the beginning of the year against the Canadian Dollar, currently trading at around 1.31 level. However, it has weakened by around 1.2% against the Mexican Peso. Currently trading at around 19.18 level.
Further developments in the talks will certainly have an impact on the financial markets moving forward. USDCAD - Daily Chart USDMXN - Daily Chart Klāvs Valters Market Analyst Sources: Go Markets MT4, Twitter
16 th August 2017 marked the beginning of renegotiations between the United States, Canada and Mexico on the North American Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The leaders from each country will meet up over the next few months to begin discussions on the agreement which has been in place since 1994. American view The United States have got a tough stance on the agreement believing it to be more beneficial for Canada and Mexico.
The United States trade representative, Robert Lighthizer reiterated Donald Trump’s critisisim of the agreement ‘‘We feel that NAFTA has fundamentally failed many, many Americans and needs major improvement’’ He said in the opening statement which reflected criticism that blames the NAFTA agreement for a direct loss of around 700,000 US manufacturing jobs since it was put in place. Some of the objectives the of US negotiators include: Improve the U.S. trade balance and reduce the trade deficit with the NAFTA countries Maintain existing reciprocal duty-free market access for industrial goods and strengthen disciplines to address non-tariff barriers that constrain U.S. exports to NAFTA countries Maintain existing duty-free access to NAFTA country markets for U.S. textile and apparel products and seek to improve competitive opportunities for exports of U.S. textile and apparel products while considering U.S. import sensitivities Promote greater regulatory compatibility with respect to key goods sectors to reduce burdens associated with unnecessary differences in regulation, including through regulatory cooperation where appropriate Increase transparency by ensuring that all customs laws, regulations, and procedures are published on the Internet as well as designating points of contact for questions from traders Canadian view Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister, Chrystia Freeland has said she hopes that all three countries can keep what is good about the current NAFTA agreement, while using the negotiation process to make the current agreement more modern At the start of the negotiations, Freeland said ‘‘We pursue trade, free and fair, knowing it is not a zero-sum game’’. She also added that Canada is the United States’ biggest client and that Canada buys more from United States than China, Japan and the United Kingdom combined.
Canada’s objectives include: A new chapter on labour standards A new chapter on environmental standards Expanding procurement Freer movement of professionals Protect Canada’s supply-management system for dairy and poultry Mexican View Mexico’s Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said that the main challenge of the negotiation process will be to find any common ground between the three sides. ‘‘The process that begins today is not about going back to the past. For a deal to be successful it has to work for all parties. Otherwise it is not a deal’’.
Mexico’s top objectives include: Foster more inclusive regional trade Update energy, digital and telecommunications provisions Strengthen North American competitiveness Maintain agriculture access All three parties have their views on how the NAFTA agreement should look like moving forward, however there is currently no timeframe of when the negotiations will end.All parties will hope they can reach an agreement as soon as possible, especially with Mexico elections taking place in July 2018. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets
Upcoming News » 6:30pm Manufacturing Production – GBP Overnight we saw small drops on the DOW and S&P500, Gold settled around its lows still finding support around 1333.50. Oil rallied higher with hopes OPEC will stabilize supply. The USD was mixed as the AUDUSD tested highs.
The USDJPY rallied by 37 pips to test short a term high of 102.55. NAB Australia tips two more RBA rate cuts, despite solid business. Chinese inflation see’s new lows as PBOC signals need for “Innovative” monetary policy.
Asian and local equity markets have been a little stronger than I expected this morning with the Nikki increasing by 86.76 points. ASX200 up by 8.16 points at this point in the session. I expected flatter to slightly weaker sessions today.
The HSI has followed my original thoughts currently lower by 0.19%. The EUR/USD is putting in a stronger Asian session off its lows and holding firm above 1.1070 support. The CAD continues to see sellers as the USDCAD is currently testing its weekly high at 1.3180.
Gold has started to edge lower, I want to see 1333.50 holds on the short term to keep a trend continuation idea in play. I’m seeing some signs we could see some weakness creep into stock indices tonight. A few are sitting and struggling at highs, more on this below.
AUDUSD – Sell idea still forming for me at this point, I’m still looking for it to confirm. Divergence is still present. Buyers are still struggling to break through the upper resistance.
The current move up is in more of an ending diagonal now than a clean cut trend channel. A break out tonight to the upside changes the picture entirely. Until this happens I’m continuing my wait.
GER30 – Seeing a possible sell idea forming. We have seen price hit a previous high and find some selling pressure. The current candle can be seen as an evening star due to its gap.
Divergence is starting to form. A rally tonight through the yesterday’s high cancels this idea out. SPX500 – As with the above, price stalling at highs.
Divergence has formed. I looking for price to close lower tonight to confirm a sell idea. If we have a stronger session tonight and break above 2188 my sell idea will be canceled.
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Report by Deepta Bolaky A buoyant open on Oil markets this week amidst clampdown on corruption. The sudden arrests of a dozen princes, business tycoons and top officials in Saudi Arabia has caused a rally in oil prices, hitting a 2-year high. UKOUSD and USOUSD Source: GO Markets MT4 It is reported that private airports were closed to prevent jets being used for any escape swiftly after King Salman ordered the arrests.
A new anti-corruption commission has been set up and is being led by King Salman’s 32- year old son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Crown Prince has been praised for his young and fresh attitude towards politics and has shown his determination in shifting Saudi Arabia away from its heavy dependence on oil. He demonstrated commitment towards foreign and social policy and has played a leading role in removing the ban on female drivers.
However, the Prince’s rapid rise in power, austerity measures and recent arrests have reportedly raised concerns over his motives, particularly within his own royal family. The crackdown came at a time when Saudi Arabia also intercepted a ballistic missile over Riyadh. Iran was accused of supplying the weapon fired towards Riyadh’s airport.
Whilst the war of words has escalated between the two countries since the weekend, putting pressure on oil prices, major US indices appear to be subdued, partly because markets were more focused on tax reforms.
Free-falling gold prices The latest weekly chart for gold does not look favourable for the precious metal. Below we can see that in twelve of the past sixteen weeks, gold prices have ended down and is one of the worst runs for the metal in decades. What is surprising is that the demand for gold continues to fall despite an increasingly volatile geopolitical situation unfolding between the US and China.
If anything, the US Dollar appears to be getting stronger as tensions grow, and as a result gold is feeling the pinch. Given the circumstances, we would expect the opposite for XAUUSD. So what are the possible causes for the loss of interest in this market?
In short, we have so many elements at play here that it would be difficult to pinpoint any one reason. However, as follows, there are a few standout factors which deserve mentioning. Overall Demand According to the World Gold Council, we saw a total demand of 1,959 tonnes during the first half of the year.
This amount is the lowest level since 2009, and a further 2,086 tonnes less than the previous year. Rates Hikes Let's also not forget that the Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates twice this year, and plans further additional raises towards the end of the year. This news alone would typically put pressure on gold and silver prices.
It does pose an interesting question though; what if the two remaining rate hikes predicted for 2018 is already fully priced into the market? Given the media hype surrounding the policy decisions, it would make sense that many have considered this aspect before the recent drop. In short, there isn't much scope for a surprise, so it becomes hard to rationalise this latest activity based on this evidence alone.
Investor Sentiment Another factor could be the onwards and upwards march of US equities. Market sentiment currently favours the equities asset class which makes it a more appealing place to invest capital than metals. This mostly risk-on sentiment keeps driving US stocks higher, despite Washington's woes elsewhere around the globe.
So, with the focus squarely on equities, it's perhaps not a great shock that gold is suffering, as investors will generally flock to the highest yields. Unfortunately, gold as a non-interest bearing asset will always come off second best in this scenario. Of course, we also have gold stocks, or more commonly, gold ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) which are increasingly becoming the popular method of gaining exposure to the metal.
Although, these types of investments appear to have only made things worse as US investors have started shuffling gold ETF funds into other sectors. Perhaps the biggest clue is that ETF's purchased only 60.9m tonnes of gold in the past six months, versus 160.9 tonnes during the same time last year. Technicals As shown on the previous weekly chart, the technicals are noticeably bearish longer-term.
Gold prices are grinding lower to the psychological support level of $1,200 per ounce. Sticking with the longer-term view, if we study the Ichimoku monthly chart above, you'll notice that the $1200 level coincides with the bottom of the cloud formation. I see this going either one or two ways; perhaps we will see the price rebound off this mark and attempt another move towards the $1300 region, or, the slide will turn into an avalanche as the price gravitates towards the $1122.51 lows that were seen in December 2016.
Should we see a close below $1200, I suspect this level will turn to an area of resistance and stifle movement in the short-medium term. As long as the US Dollar holds its ground and investors continue to cherish equities over other asset classes, we will likely see further pressure on gold, silver and commodity trading markets as a whole. By Adam Taylor CFTe This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: World Gold Council (gold.org), Tradingview, Bloomberg