Berita & analisis pasar

Aftermath of Brexit Today we'll take a look at the aftermath of the Brexit vote using point and figure analysis. As we begin to process the magnitude of last week’s ‘Brexit’ vote, it is important to understand that we are still not of the woods yet regarding event risk and market stability. It may well be the start of an extremely volatile period that leaves many areas of the financial markets vulnerable to liquidity issues and potentially large swings.

It could be some considerable time before the dust settles, but in the meantime, we’ll use the Point and Figure method to help identify any potential trading opportunities, and analyse the currency carnage that was ‘Brexit.' GBPUSD Click for larger view Let’s start with most affected pair on the day GBPUSD. Difficult to assess prices at a new 30 year low We saw an incredible 10% move from a high of 1.5017 down to a 30 year low of 1.3227. At this point, it becomes extremely difficult to assess when you have relatively little price action to compare it with.

One element that has remained constant is the bearish resistance line as shown in the chart above. This downtrend was tested at those 1.50 highs and held strong just before the referendum vote. Perhaps a ‘Bremain’ decision would have painted a much different picture, but in this case, the leave vote has only added fuel to the fire, giving the Pound Bears a huge boost in momentum.

While finding areas of support at this moment in time is a tall order, if we look at where the previous supply level ran out on the chart around the 1.40 mark, this provides us with a clue as to what price action could potentially do in the short-term should the Pound see an immediate recovery. I suspect any retracement will consider the 1.40 level as key resistance and possibly even a turning point should price regain some of this lost ground. XAUUSD Click for larger view The next chart we will take a look at is gold.

Gold is leading the charge for safe haven flows As expected during Friday’s referendum, we saw a rapid increase in safe haven flows. Currencies such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and also precious metals such as gold, all benefited from traders/investors attempting to park funds into assets that are perceived as financially safer amid volatile environments. Gold itself moved over USD $100 in price from the lows of 1250 up to the highs of 1358.

When we look at the point and figure chart above, it identifies an uptrend (Bullish Support line) that began back in January this year. It’s plausible to imagine that larger market participants have been positioning themselves ahead of this major risk event long before it even took place as gold is commonly used to hedge against these type of market moves. With the current uptrend firmly intact, an upside target appears to be located in the region of 1400 an ounce.

Last time the gold price was at this level was back in March 2014, and given the congested price structure since this period, I think we might see a some staggered moves up to test this area in the short to medium term. Key support for gold is suggested initially at the round number of 1300, but even below this level, 1260 is shown to have greater importance with multiple weekly pivot points as shown in the candlestick chart below. Also on a brief side note, the yellow line represents the 200 Day Moving Average.

As you can see, the price is trading well above this line which provides further confirmation of an uptrend in place. Click for larger view AUDUSD Click for larger view Finally, a quick look at where the Aussie stands after the onslaught of Brexit. With the US Dollar gaining strength, it was inevitable that the fate of the Australian Dollar would suffer.

Recent bullish moves have been slashed, replaced with the familiar sight of a bearish resistance line as shown above. Bearish pennant formation suggests downward pressure I’ve left the previous bullish support line visible too as I believe it helps highlight the latest pennant formation on the chart. This triangular structure suggests further downside pressure could be building and during the upcoming days or weeks, the price could test the levels of 73.75 and 72.00 respectively.

A daily close above the 76.00 level would test the current downtrend and is suggestive of a bullish signal. However, until price breaks the 78.00 mark, I’d be inclined to look for selling opportunities in light of recent events. The theme will be a continued flock to safety As I mentioned earlier, it will take some time for the financial markets to settle and fully digest what occurred over in Britain last week and many of the implications are still yet unknown.

Let’s not forget with the upcoming US and Australian elections and ongoing negotiations between the UK and Britain emerge, market volatility will more than likely increase and sizable price swings become a regular occurrence. I suspect we will continue to see continued interest in traditional safe havens like gold and the Japanese Yen, at least until the end of the year. Please note that trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk, including the risk of losing substantially more than your initial investment.

Also, you do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. You should only trade if you can afford to carry these risks. Our offer is not designed to alter or modify any individual’s risk preference or encourage individuals to trade in a manner inconsistent with their own trading strategies.

Adam Taylor | Senior Analyst Adam Taylor joined the GO Markets' team in early 2013 and has gone on to become a valued analyst on our Research and Trading team. Adam's key strength lies in his technical analysis skills, perhaps honed over his time as a Champion Chess player for his native Scotland. While Adam's primary role is concentrated towards risk management for GO Markets, he's a regular contributor to our News and Analysis team, using the highly regarded but rarely used, point and figure method.

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Last night the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England kept rates on hold, which was expected. The CPI data came out worst than expected but no big surprises. We also had the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which was much better than expected at 4.7.

As to what was expected at 1.1, so it was a good strong figure. Unemployment came out a bit worse than expected at 277k. Now European and US stocks had a very good rebound last night off lows.

So the US 30 bounced off its support line at 17470 and it is looking like it could be a possible reversal point but we need more confirmation. This is due to a Brexit figure coming out suggesting the stay camp had a lead. This had a very big impact on Gold.

Watch our full report by clicking play on the video below.

We have seen a quiet recovery for Pound Sterling in the absence of any negative headlines. Add to this some rambunctious tweets from President Trump weakening the Dollar and the GBPUSD pair is tip-toeing upwards, shrugging off the recent dip below 1.30 as nothing more than a temporary blip. It is these sudden blips or brief recoveries in Cable that leave traders scratching their heads and pondering the now tiresome question, "Is this Brexit related?".

The short answer is that it is just too difficult to dissect the Brexit fundamentals, mainly due to a lack of clarity surrounding negotiations. I guess you could argue that the longer-term drop in the Pound could be a sign that the market has already begun pricing in a degree of uncertainty, but it's more likely that nobody truly knows the outcome. Whatever happens, the technical picture for GBPUSD suggests we may be in for a continued move down unless something drastically changes the overall market sentiment.

A Look At The Charts First, we will visit GBPUSD on the daily timeframe using the Point & Figure method, as I believe it provides us with a reasonable downside target. (GBPUSD – Daily) As shown, a bearish resistance line formed around the 1.36 mark which put us firmly in a downtrend. It was a bold move south from the 1.44 highs and shows signs that the bears are in control longer-term. Price collapsing through the 130.50 support level was significant as it had failed on three previous attempts.

Assuming the weight of this trend continues, the chart suggests 1.28 as the next major area of support. Given we reached as low as 129.60 last week, it appears this level could be within reach in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a bullish move towards 1.33 would require us to reassess the latest trend, and anything above this region has the potential to be a minefield of choppy resistance.

On the daily Ichimoku chart below, we see a great example of this. Note the thickness of the cloud above 1.33, although not impenetrable, it will likely be gather upward momentum. (GBPUSD -Daily) Perhaps the most precise view of Brexit's progress when it comes to the value of Sterling can be seen in the EURGBP pairing. (EURGBP – Daily) The EURGBP daily chart highlights Brexit's indecision or lack of clarity as reflected in this longer-term range. Since October last year, we have yet to see a final move from either the Pound or the Euro.

Euro Winning The Race To Break First One thing I would point out is that the Euro has its nose in front regarding strength against the Sterling. The latest price is trading well-above the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) which is a bullish signal. We can also see the Euro gaining much ground over the past month against its counterpart.

Any continuation of this move would make 0.90 a critical level to watch. Remaining Focused In A Sleepy Market There is always a tendency to become complacent when currencies have been trading in a long-term range, or when political campaigns survive well past their use by date, polluting the fundamentals. Trading can become less exciting, and we start to assume that the status quo will remain.

In this case however, it is worth keeping tabs on the Pound Sterling, as once Brexit is resolved one way or another, we could see some considerable shifts in the market whilst as those on the sidelines are caught napping. Adam Taylor CFTe GO Markets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

South Africa Update 8 th August 2017, the day president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, which made sure that he will maintain power of one of the biggest economies in the African continent. It is worth noting that it was the eighth vote of no-confidence that Zuma has survived since being in charge. About Jacob Zuma Name: Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma Born: 12 April 1942 Birthplace: Nkandla, South Africa Political part: African National Congress Jacob Zuma, who has been involved in corruption allegations since being elected as the president of South Africa in 2009, survived the vote by a majority of 198 votes to 177 after the vote was called by the Democratic Alliance party who accused Zuma of suppressing democracy.

Even though the motion was defeated, it might still have an impact on the party which currently leads South Africa. Unlike the previous no-confidence votes, the latest vote was held anonymously and there were suggestions it could reach 50 votes of no-confidence from the Zuma’s African National Congress party, which is the number required to pass the motion. Instead 24 members of his part voted against their leader, around 12 others refrained or failed to show up to the vote which would suggest further unrest within the party further down the line.

Many have suggested that Zuma will not last until 2019, which is when the next general election takes place. Financial Markets The South African Rand weakened against the US Dollar after President Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence which could have ended his administration of the African nation. The decline was a big turnaround for the Rand which was the best performing major currency on earlier in the week.

Despite the result, it is unlikely to cause a major weakness as the result was largely priced in before the vote took place. USD/ZAR By: Klavs Valters GO Markets

NZDCAD - Daily To begin with, let’s take a look at the NZDCAD. Admittedly not the liveliest minor pair but in this instance, I think it is worth a mention. On the daily time frame, we can see the price is hovering around the critical support zone of 0.8850, an area that has been tested three times already this year but has failed to mount any significant challenges to the downside.

The latest candle suggests the bulls are attempting to regain control and we may see moves up to re-test previous areas of resistance. A potential catalyst for a bounce is lurking within the RSI indicator which shows NZDCAD heading into oversold territory. Upside targets start at 0.90 before testing the previous high of 0.9225.

Should the 0.8850 regions become unstuck, evidence of previous support is around last December’s lows of 0.87 EURUSD - Daily Not a great deal to discuss for the pair during this period of consolidation. However, it is interesting to see how price action is responding to the lower levels of the Ichimoku cloud shown above. Notice several recent attempts under the cloud before causing temporary reversals each time.

All the other indicators on this daily chart including the lagging Chikou Span (purple line) are bearish. At this point, we could see price retrace back to the previous low of 1.15080 before resuming an upward trajectory longer-term. I say this tentatively because if you look at the weekly chart, the price has not closed above the 200 EMA for the past seven weeks.

USOIL- Daily Lastly, without delving into the fundamental drivers of the commodity, displayed is the strong uptrend we have witnessed during the July to September period last year. Technically speaking, we require at least three points of reference to validate these lines, so confirmation is pending. There are also two weekly pivots in the region of 72.00 which could be the next port of call for the price of oil.

Above here, we are likely to see 74.00 tested as well. I think the point and figure chart below displays this more clearly. We have a bullish support line that remains steadfast, and the price is edging upwards to re-touch the 74.00 mark.

In both charts, it would seem 68.00 is the level to watch before revising the overall trend. It is also worthy of a downside target in the interim. By Adam Taylor CFTe This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.

They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Have you spotted something unusual happening with the Japanese Yen? With the likes of protectionism dominating global headlines, the Yen is weakening amid broader risk aversion which is out of character for the currency. A Confidence crisis among Asian markets You have to wonder if the currency is absorbing some of the inherent uncertainty brought about by various negotiations in the region or whether there is something else at play?

Historically, we would expect to see signs of strength returning to the Yen in the USDJPY pair but so far we have not seen a great deal. Looking at the Daily charts below, evidence of bullish activity is rife. We see price action firmly in an uptrend above the longer-term moving averages and posting positive gains for July.

USDJPY – Daily At this stage, the chart suggests we might see a change in direction given the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is quite overbought, but it is hard to give this idea much validity in contrast with the other indicators. I suspect any sudden shift to the downside could see the weekly pivot level of 111.80 become a potential target. Alternatively, should the Dollar hold firm, it may struggle to break the 114.00 level as this area has proved somewhat resilient over the past year.

Not all the Yen crosses appear weak Ignoring the Dollar, let's take a peek at the AUDJPY cross as there could be an opportunity to go long Yen after all. Notice that we are approaching the top of a range on the daily and price action appears trapped in a sideways move. This range extends between the 84.50 and 81.00 levels, and with the price now touching 83.50 we're not too far away.

AUDJPY - Daily Has this pair found a ceiling? The 84.50 level is crucial as it marks the most recent high. It was last challenged in June but was short-lived; only one day to be exact.

This swift failed attempt suggests any further attempts may result in the same. Also, the weakness of the previous day's candles makes it appear the bulls are either fading or somewhat indecisive. This clue might be the turning point at which the pair gains some momentum in the opposite direction once again finding those support levels of 82.00/81.00.

We cannot get carried away though. As mentioned, the Japanese Yen is acting out of character as of late so we must not rule out the possibility of a further rally. Past 84.50 the next pocket of resistance appears to be at 85.50.

A quick glance at the hourly chart also highlights the willingness of the bulls to jump back in at any time. Look at how the price rebounded off the weekly pivot and followed through to the upside in the short-term. AUDJPY – Hourly Faith as a safe-haven restored?

Of course, many traders will still consider the Japanese Yen as a safer place to invest during times of turmoil. And I think Japan's government will take action to help relieve concerns. Only yesterday Japan signed a free-trade deal with the EU which is an enormous partnership and will go a long way to squash some of those fears.

We will have to wait and see in the coming weeks if the currency can restore its prowess as a safe-haven asset. Adam Taylor CFTe GO Markets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.