Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday 29th May at 15:00 PM London time. Why Is The Announcement Important?
A bank interest rate is a rate at which a countries central bank lends money to local banks. The interest rate is charged by nations central or federal bank on loans advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 2% (currently 2%), and the interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target.
Therefore, the Bank of Canada’s and other central bank rate decisions can have a significant impact on the financial markets. Expectations The last time the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rates was back in October of last year and it is expected that the rates will remain unchanged at 1.75%, according to the analysts. ''Recent economic data suggest that growth will be stronger than the Bank was expecting in the first quarter, providing a reason to not cut rates.'' ''At the same time, growth will remain below potential, providing no reason to lift rates. The Bank of Canada will, therefore, remain in a holding pattern for now and make any necessary adjustments to that stance based on incoming economic data'', Principal economist Alicia MacDonald said at the Conference Board of Canada last week.
Even though a rate decision is not expected, traders will be keeping a close eye to the upcoming meeting and the comments after the rate decision has been announced. To keep up to date with other upcoming economic events click here for our Economic Calendar. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: DataWrapper, Bank of Canada
On Monday, UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond announced its latest budget, which did not have a massive impact on Pound Sterling. Now that is out of the way; it’s time to focus on another critical economic event – the Bank of England rate decision. The decision is set to be announced at 12:00 PM London time on Thursday.
About Interest Rates Interest rates are set by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which is made of nine members – The Governor, the three Deputy Governors for Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Markets & Banking, the Banks' Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Bank of England has an inflation target of 2% (currently 2.4%), which is set by the Government and the Bank of England’s monetary policy is set to achieve the Government’s target. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is more than 3% or less 1%, the Governor must write a letter to the Chancellor to explain why and outline how they will get the inflation to the target of 2%.
Expectations We have seen two rate hikes from the Bank of England in the last year, one in November 2017 and August of this year. The current interest rate stands at 0.75%, and according to the latest forecast, we will not see the Bank of England raising the rates in its upcoming meeting. After the announcement, all eyes will be on the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney press conference with his latest outlook on the British economy and Brexit.
The Governor recently mentioned that a limited and gradual series of interest rate hikes are required to keep the inflation in check. The markets are expecting a potential hike in May 2019, after the United Kingdom formally leaves the European Union. Other UK data to keep an eye on: • Bank of England Asset Purchase Rate (12:00 London time) Previous: £435 billion Forecast: £435 billion • Bank of England Inflation Report (12:00 London time) This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper
On the back of what has been a pretty punishing month for Oil, now trading below $70 a barrel for WTI crude, we’re going to take a look at Oil, the fundamental drivers behind the price swings and what the future could hold for the Oil markets. For the sake of clarity, this article will be looking exclusively at WTI Crude. So what drove the close to 11% decline in Oil?
What has stalled fund managers and market voices calling for oil to revisit $100 a barrel? Well, mostly it is a confluence of reasons, some rooted in basic economics and one fear-based reaction on the back of the “stock market rout” as it has been dubbed. Now although we are going to be focusing on some of the reasons for this decline, these are not specific to this sell-off alone, these are fundamental drivers in the price of Oil markets.
WTI Crude December Contract - October sell of from $76.72 to low of $68.53 One of the reasons for the sell-off is that of a supply jump. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 22.3 million barrels, which is the most substantial increase since 2015. This factor comes down to basic economics.
With a boost in supply and the more something is readily available; naturally, the associated value will be lower, and this is what is weighing here. However, the story doesn't end there. It can also provide an insight into how the general populous is leaning as an increase in stockpiles means that the current supply level is too much for current demand.
For example, it could potentially be an indicator in sentiment, companies shifting to renewables, and more and more people moving to electric vehicles, etc. All of these factors would impact the appetite for oil which then leads to an oversupply, subsequently causing a tumble in price as we've seen of late. One of the other factors for Crude also stems from this balancing act of supply and demand.
With Crude spiking to highs not long seen, it sparked some fear that the high prices would weigh on demand for the asset, causing investors to be more cautious and to close out long positions. Since then both OPEC and the International Energy Agency have both revised down the oil growth forecasts. WTI December Contract and S&P Overlay - During the "stock rout" The so-called “stock market rout” also took its toll on the Oil price, with investors dumping risk assets and moving into safe-haven assets, i.e., bonds, gold, etc. this helped to perpetuate Crude’s slide and saw it shed a further 5% of its value.
So, with WTI Crude oil currently, at the time or writing sitting at lows of $66.70 a barrel, what lies ahead for Oil? With continued sell-offs seen in equities markets and steadily more risk-off sentiment throughout the market, we could continue to see Oil slide. However, as markets tend to jump between risk-on & risk-off on a daily, sometimes more frequent basis, we can expect to see plenty of activity in the Oil market, and this will undoubtedly be one of our watchlist staples.
For more information or any questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives, including Oil Commodity trading, carries a high level of risk.
The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for September. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today versus the forecast of 185,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 3.7% in September better than the forecast of 3.8%.
Worth pointing out that the latest unemployment rate is the lowest level for 49 years. The number of unemployed people decreased by 270,000 to 6 million. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated.
The reaction Initially we saw some weakness in the US dollar as the latest figures were released, however, since then the Dollar has recovered some losses. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated. USD/JPY Hourly Chart GBP/USD Hourly Chart EUR/USD Hourly Chart This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Bloomberg, Go Markets MT4
Markets Eager To Resume As the Easter holidays fade, we quickly saw a market resurgence of traders looking to resume normality. Perhaps one of the more stand-out movers during today's London session was none other than the Pound Aussie cross (GBPAUD). Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement to hold interest rates at 0.1%, the recently stronger Pound took a tumble, and we'll be looking at where the price may end up.
A Sizeable Move Since early hours, the price of GBPAUD declined by 1.05% or roughly 200 pips. Considering the Average True Range (ATR) tends to sit around 100-120 pips, it's not something to ignore. Is this just a one-off move, or is something larger happening here?
RBA Rates On Hold Until 2025 Perhaps the overriding factor that spiked AUD demand today is the dovish comments made by the RBA that suggest they'll aim to keep the current rates on hold until 2025. In an uncertain environment mainly consisting of negative rates worldwide, the ability to offer stability, however small, speaks volumes. But is it enough to stave off economic risks associated with the pandemic?
Probably not. Risky Business The Australian currency will remain risk-sensitive, and with Covid-19 cases continuing to rise throughout Europe and America, demand for the 'Aussie' will potentially struggle to find enough demand. By contrast, the Pound looks to build on vaccine success and hopefully reignite the economy in June/July by further easing lockdowns.
The potential for GBPAUD to turn bullish longer-term looks more probable at this stage. The idea that the pair could resume an upward trajectory is backed up by some relatively strong technical signals on both the hourly and daily Ichimoku charts listed below. Ichimoku Hourly Chart Analysis Beginning with the hourly, we can see today's bearish price action is heading towards the previous weekly pivot point of 1.8010 before finding some support.
Despite the decisive move to the downside, now that the pair found some short-term support, we'd generally expect some corrective price behavior during the upcoming sessions. Notice the RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) is also in heavily oversold territory, further fueling speculation to the upside. The current weekly pivot point of 1.8145 makes an attractive potential target or a consideration for resistance.
Ichimoku Daily Chart Analysis The daily Ichimoku chart helps put today's price moves into perspective, further highlighting the bullish indicators in play. Note, the current price action is still trading well above the cloud, as is the lagging span (purple line). The thickness of the cloud also suggests plenty of support above 1.80 levels.
Remaining Tentatively Bullish So despite the sudden bearish activity seen today, the outlook for GBPAUD remains bullish across multiple timeframes, not accounting for any new Covid-19 issues that may emerge. Sources: Go Markets, Meta Trader 5, TradingView, Bloomberg
GBPCAD – Hourly Individually, both the British Pound and the Canadian Dollar have surged in recent trading sessions, appearing relatively strong against their peers in the short-term. With the latest fundamental data suggesting both currencies have benefited from similar economic drivers, it could be tough to navigate a directional bias for GBPCAD, as we'll discuss in today's Chart of The Day. Firstly, as the markets come to grip the idea that the Bank of England will seek to avoid cutting interest rates into negative territory, the Pound should continue to gather momentum along with positive reports of vaccine rollouts around the country.
Similarly, the Bank of Canada has also dismissed talks of negative rates and reaps the rewards of recent steadiness in global oil prices. At around $58 per barrel, we're seeing the highest oil prices in just over a year. And with further potential production cuts earmarked for Saudi Arabia, the commodity-sensitive CAD could see additional gains.
Technically speaking, Sterling does appear to have the slight upper hand from a longer-term trend perspective. However, in the short-term, the hourly chart shown looks bearish. We might be witnessing more corrective moves or some profit-taking activity following last week's sharp advance to higher levels instead of specific CAD demand.
This idea neatly ties in with the recent bearish divergence pattern highlighted on the RSI indicator above. A further sell-off on the hourly could target the current weekly pivot point (gold line), located at 1.7475. Looking at the price action during the past few weeks, it has a habit of utilising weekly pivots as critical support areas.
For example, not only did GBPCAD test last week's pivot of 1.7500 multiple times, but it even touched January's final pivot with pinpoint accuracy, reaching exactly 1.7350 before rebounding upwards. To the upside, the pair continues to find resistance around the early 1.76 regions, but as mentioned before, these trends display a more bullish bias when viewed longer-term. So despite all the factors contributing to a favourable condition for the Canadian Dollar, the Pound edges ahead in dominance as 2021's top-performing G10 currency thus far.
Given its momentum, any weakness is probably likely to be viewed as temporary, with traders eyeing the dips in price as possible opportunities to go long. Sources: Go Markets, Meta Trader 5, TradingView, Bloomberg