Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
US Dollar Index Fundamental Analysis A hard-fought tug-of-war between bulls and bears played out on the DXY Index after U.S. inflation data crossed the wires. A knee-jerk reaction caused the greenback to plunge, but eventually it was able to recover and move into positive territory due to higher Treasury yields (DXY +0.10% to 103.41). However, a bearish USD outlook is held by economists at Bank of America Global Research, who see a mild recession in the USA for this year as fed cuts to begin only in March 2024. “We expect a mild recession starting mid-2023 and Fed cuts to begin only in March 2024.
For 2023, the market expects a much milder recession, with the Fed still hiking rate 1-2 more times before slightly cutting rates in second half of the year.” “For now, we still hold a bearish USD view for the medium term; 2023 playing out in line with leading indicator historical precedents would increase the upside risk to our bearish USD outlook.” US Dollar Index Technical Analysis The US Dollar index has been trading in a range between $102.6 to $104 for the last 7 days. At the time of writing, Dollar Index is currently trading at $103.93, which is a major level of resistance where price has fallen significantly from in the past (Jan 2017). As seen in the photo below, it shows that price has come up to test this trend line that can be clearly seen on the daily time frame, paired with the consolidation, if this daily candlestick closes below $104 there could be a high probability of the US dollar continuing with its higher time frame downtrend.
A break above this trend line however could indicate a move to the upside.
The EURJPY has been trading under the 142.70 resistance area since the end of December 2022. With the price failing to break through over several occasions, the recent weakness in the Japanese Yen has seen the EURJPY trade beyond the resistance level, signaling the potential for a significant move to the upside. The recent weakness in the Japanese Yen comes not only because of the strength of the DXY but from the announcement of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor.
Kazuo Ueda stated that the BoJ’s current monetary policy is appropriate and that should continue. A sustained move to the upside would not only be dependent on the weakness of the Japanese Yen. A recovery in the strength of the Euro could provide the additional push, to drive the EURJPY higher.
ECB President Lagarde has continued to maintain her hawkish view by commenting that she intends to raise rates by 50bps at the next ECB meeting in March. Looking at the technical analysis, the EURJPY is likely to retrace briefly down to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with the resistance turned support level, before trading higher toward the key resistance at 145.60, formed by the previous swing high level. However, if the EURJPY trades significantly lower, past the previous swing low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, this breakout potential could be invalidated.
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) released the latest financial results for Q4 2022 on Wednesday. The Canadian mining company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for a second consecutive quarter. Barrick Gold reported revenue of $2.726 billion for the quarter vs. $2.674 billion expected.
EPS reported at $0.128 per share vs. $0.111 EPS estimate. The company also announced a dividend of $0.10 per share for Q4 2022. ''Our continued success in not only replenishing but also unlocking significant value in our asset base shows the unmatched potential of our organic growth pipeline,'' CEO of Barrick, Mark Bristow said in a press release. ''A stronger Q4 operational performance, notably from Cortez and Carlin in Nevada, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and Tongon in Côte d’Ivoire, contributed to annual gold production of more than 4.1 million ounces in a year impacted by infrastructural issues at Turquoise Ridge in Nevada and the replacement of the rock winder at Kibali in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Copper production from Lumwana in Zambia and Jabal Sayid in Saudi Arabia was well within guidance.'' The company also announced another share buyback program: ''Barrick returned a record $1.6 billion to shareholders in 2022 through dividends and share buybacks and has announced a further share buyback program of up to $1 billion for the next twelve months.'' Stock reaction The stock was down by around 3% at the open in the US at $17.22 as share.
Stock performance 1 month: -3.10% 3 months: +12.79% Year-to-date: +3.67% 1 year: -19.88% Barrick Gold stock price targets BNP Paribas: $19 Barclays: $26 RBC Capital: $20 Goldman Sachs: $18 BMO Capital: $28 Barrick Gold is the 572 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $31.38 billion. You can trade Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Barrick Gold Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) announced Q4 2022 and 2022 full year financial results after the market close in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest travel company reported revenue of $1.902 billion (up by 24% year-over-year), beating analyst estimate of $1.861 billion. The revenue reported was the highest for a Q4 in Airbnb’s history.
Earnings per share also topped analyst estimate at $0.48 per share vs. $0.256 earnings per share expected. Revenue in 2022 reported at $8.4 billion, up by 40% vs. 2021. CEO commentary ''2022 was another incredible year for Airbnb.
We made almost 100 upgrades to our core service, saw record guest demand, and ended the year with our highest-ever number of active listings globally,'' co-founder and CEO, Brian Chesky said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares of Airbnb closed at $120.49 a share on Tuesday, up by 3.28%. The stock rose by around 9% in the after-hours as Q4 results came in above estimates.
Stock performance 1 month: +19.35% 3 months: +12.95% Year-to-date: +41.37% 1 year: -32.88% Airbnb stock price targets B of A Securities: $130 Barclays: $105 UBS: $114 Wells Fargo: $130 Goldman Sachs: $87 Mizuho: $110 Morgan Stanley: $80 Baird: $100 Airbnb is the 188 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $76.53 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) announced Q4 2022 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The US company posted better-than-expected results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. Uber reported revenue of $8.607 billion (up by 47% year-over-year or 59% in constant currency) vs. $8.513 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.29 per share for the quarter. Analysts were expecting a loss per share of -$0.154. It’s the first time since Q4 2021 that the company has reported higher-than-expected EPS.
CEO and CFO commentary ''We ended 2022 with our strongest quarter ever, with robust demand and record margins,'' Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber. ''Our global scale and unique platform advantages position us well to accelerate this momentum into 2023.'' "In 2022, we significantly exceeded our profitability outlook, with an incremental margin of 10%,'' Nelson Chai, CFO of the company added. ''Our outlook for a Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA step up in Q1 builds on that progress, and sets us up for yet another record year." Stock reaction Share price of Uber rose by around 2% on Wednesday and was trading at around $35.91 a share – the highest level since April 2022. Stock performance 1 month: +26.77% 3 months: +35.37% Year-to-date: +45.33% 1 year: -10.57% Uber stock price targets Wedbush: $38 Needham: $54 Wolfe Research: $42 Wells Fargo: $46 Piper Sandler: $33 Truist Securities: $60 Cowen & Co.: $70 Morgan Stanley: $54 Mizuho: $46 UBS: $36 Barclays: $54 Uber is the 204 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $71.61 billion. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Uber Technologies Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
US indices were down today as Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve is going to increase interest rates at a higher and faster rate than currently in place. US equities dropped after Powell’s speech. Ultimately the major indices ended relatively flat by the close of trading.
The Nasdaq closed down 0.40% after taking a breather from its recent buying momentum. The Dow Jones was dragged down by Boeing after a 737-plane crash in the mountainous Guangxi region in China. The Boeing share price saw a 5.74% drop on the opening before recovering a little to close the day down by 3.60%.
The S&P500 was also choppy as it reacted the Jerome Powell’s speech but finished flat. The FTSE 100 showed gains as an uplift in commodities supported the index with oil spiking. This provided strength for the UK’s biggest oil companies BP and Shell with both rising by 3%.
The FTSE ended the day up 0.51% whilst the DAX was down 0.60%. Commodities Brent Crude Oil made a powerful move overnight rising 7.91% to 116.33 USD. This came as European Union officials debated whether to place sanctions on Russia's lucrative energy sector to pressure the country over its invasion of Ukraine.
An embargo on Russian oil similar to what the USA and the UK have done may have drastic implications for the EU in which 40% of its gas is imported from Russia. Natural gas prices also continue to remain in the upper end of their recent price range. Gold remains near its recent support levels ending the day at 1929 USD per ounce.
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had a choppy day as BTC/USD ended flat overall. Ethereum was the better performer closing the day with a 1.87% rise. The ETH/USD continues to hold just below the $3000 resistance level.
FOREX The EUR/USD continued to be rejected at the $1.08 level after the speech from the Federal Reserve spurred USD strength. The AUD/USD has not been able to break through its recent highs of $0.74 as it proved a flat day for the pair after the previous day’s strong moves. The USD has continued its strong move against the JPY as it climbed another 0.27%.
The JPY has continued to struggle against most other currencies. The GBP/JPY has closed in on its recent area of support 157.00-158.00 JPY as seen below as it looks to potentially break out.