Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) announced the latest financial results for the first three months of 2023 before the market open in the US on Monday. The US Beverage company posted solid results for the quarter, beating both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: January 29, 1892 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 79,000 (2021) Industry: Beverage Key people: James Quincey (chairman and CEO), Brian Smith (president and COO) Owners: Berkshire Hathaway (9.23%), The Vanguard Group (7.90%), BlackRock (6.45%) The results The company reported revenue of $10.959 billion vs. $10.797 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 5% year-over-year. EPS at $0.68 per share (up by 6% from the same period last year) vs. $0.646 per share estimate. CEO commentary ''We are encouraged by our first quarter 2023 results,'' James Quincey, CEO of company said in a press release. ''Our system alignment is stronger than ever, and our networked organization is allowing us to adapt as needed.
We continue to invest for the long term, strengthening our capabilities to drive sustainable value for our stakeholders. We have the right portfolio, the right strategy and the right execution to deliver in the marketplace. We are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2023 objectives,'' Quincey concluded.
The latest results did not have a massive impact on the share price on Monday. The stock was up by 0.41% at $64.25 per share. Stock performance 1 month: +4.74% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +1.02% 1 year: -2.55% The Coca-Cola Company price targets Barclays: $72 Deutsche Bank: $60 Citigroup: $68 UBS: $72 Morgan Stanley: $70 Wells Fargo: $70 Wedbush: $63 Credit Suisse: $64 HSBC: $76 The Coca-Cola Company is the 30 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $277.94 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Coca-Cola Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
World’s largest automaker, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), reported Q1 financial results after market close in the US on Wednesday. Elon Musk’s company posted mixed results for the quarter. Let’s take a closer look at how it performed.
Company overview Founded: July 1, 2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of branches: 764 retail stores/galleries and service centers (2022) Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The results Tesla reported revenue that missed analyst estimate at $23.329 billion vs. $23.596 billion expected. Revenues were up by 24% compared to Q1 2022. Earnings per share reported at $0.85 per share (down by -21% year-over-year) vs. $0.846 per share estimate.
The automaker produced 440,808 and delivered 422,875 cars in Q1, up by 44% and 36% year-over-year, respectively. Company commentary ''In the current macroeconomic environment, we see this year as a unique opportunity for Tesla. As many carmakers are working through challenges with the unit economics of their EV programs, we aim to leverage our position as a cost leader.
We are focused on rapidly growing production, investments in autonomy and vehicle software, and remaining on track with our growth investment,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. The company also commented on its pricing strategy: ''Our near-term pricing strategy considers a long-term view on per vehicle profitability given the potential lifetime value of a Tesla vehicle through autonomy, supercharging, connectivity and service. We expect that our product pricing will continue to evolve, upwards or downwards, depending on a number of factors.'' ''Although we implemented price reductions on many vehicle models across regions in the first quarter, our operating margins reduced at a manageable rate.
We expect ongoing cost reduction of our vehicles, including improved production efficiency at our newest factories and lower logistics costs, and remain focused on operating leverage as we scale. ''We are rapidly growing energy storage production capacity at our Megafactory in Lathrop and we recently announced a new Megafactory in Shanghai. We are also continuing to execute on our product roadmap, including Cybertruck, our next generation vehicle platform, autonomy and other AI enabled products.'' ''Our balance sheet and net income enable us to continue to make these capital expenditures in line with our future growth. In this environment, we believe it makes sense to push forward to ensure we lay a proper foundation for the best possible future,'' the statement concluded.
The stock was down by -2.02% on Wednesday at $180.48 a share before the results were announced. Share price dropped by around -3% in the after-hours as investors digested the earnings report. Stock performance 1 month: -5.38% 3 months: +40.44% Year-to-date: +46.83% 1 year: -44.48% Tesla price targets RBC Capital: $217 Barclays: $230 Wedbush: $225 TD Cowen: $170 Deutsche Bank: $250 Goldman Sachs: $225 Citigroup: $192 Tesla is the 8 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $576.43 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) announced Q1 financial results before the market open in the US today. The company posted solid results beating revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported at $25.322 billion vs. $25.262 billion expected.
EPS reported at $2.05 per share (down by 4.8% year-over-year) vs. $1.766 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We came into the year clear-eyed about the challenges consumers are facing, and we were determined to build on the trust we've established with our guests. It's required agility and the ability to flex across our multi-category portfolio as we lean into value and the product categories our guests need most right now.
Thanks to the team's dedication, we saw an increase in guest traffic in Q1, with total sales increasing and profitability ahead of expectations," CEO of Target, Brian Cornell said in a statement. "As we look ahead, we now expect shrink will reduce this year's profitability by more than $500 million compared with last year. While there are many potential sources of inventory shrink, theft and organized retail crime are increasingly important drivers of the issue. We are making significant investments in strategies to prevent this from happening in our stores and protect our guests and our team.
We're also focused on managing the financial impact on our business so we can continue to keep our stores open, knowing they create local jobs and offer convenient access to essentials." "For the full year, we are maintaining our full-year financial guidance, based on the expected benefit from efficiency and cost-savings efforts and our team's continued focus on agility, flexibility and retail fundamentals in the face of continued challenges including inventory shrink. At the same time, we will continue making long-term investments in our stores, supply chain and our team, positioning Target for profitable growth and market-share gains in the years ahead," Cornell concluded. The stock was up by around 2% on Wednesday at $160.17 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: -0.76% 3 months: -8.37% Year-to-date: +8.21% 1 year: -0.20% Target price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $185 Raymond James: $190 JP Morgan: $175 Morgan Stanley: $170 Credit Suisse: $170 Baird: $195 Cowen & Co.: $200 Piper Sandler: $220 Barclays: $163 Oppenheimer: $190 Wells Fargo: $142 Target is the 193 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.95 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia
American electric vehicle Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported the latest financial results for Q1 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: June 2009 Headquarters: Irvine, California, United States Number of employees: 14,122 (December 2022) Industry: automotive, energy storage Key people: R. J.
Scaringe (CEO) The results The company reported revenue that fell slightly short of analyst estimates at $661 million (up from $95 million from Q1 2022) vs. $664.396 million expected. Loss per share reported at -$1.25 per share, which was less than -$1.622 loss per share expected. Rivian reiterated that it is on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which would represent a 100% increase from last year.
Company commentary "In the first quarter of 2023, we produced 9,395 and delivered 7,946 vehicles. This progress was despite our commercial van production line being down for a significant portion of the quarter as we introduced our Enduro motor and LFP technology into the commercial van production process," company said in a letter to shareholders. "We expect to continue to see a variance between production and delivery volumes as we ramp our production facility." "Operating and financial results during the first quarter of 2023 were in-line with our expectations and as a result, we are reaffirming our previously disclosed 2023 guidance of 50,000 total units of production, $(4,300) million in Adjusted EBITDA, and $2,000 million in capital expenditures." "We want to thank our employees, customers, suppliers, partners, communities, and shareholders for their continued support of our vision." The latest results and comments from the company had a positive impact on the share price. The stock was up by around +4% on Wednesday at $14.44 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +1.94% 3 months: -27.96% Year-to-date: -21.51% 1 year: -29.78% Rivian price targets Evercore ISI: $25 Cantor Fitzgerald: $27 Canaccord Genuity: $40 JP Morgan: $23 A. Davidson: $16 Rivian is the 1181 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $13.53 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting today was supposed to be a done deal of another hold in rates, with futures markets pricing in an over 90% chance of that being the outcome. The RBA however, showing their determination to get an inflation rate still well outside their target band instead delivered a 25bp hike after last months pause, surprising the market and seeing a dramatic reaction in the Aussie dollar (pump) and equity markets. (dump) AUDUSD and ASX200 reaction: Adding to this was what was see as a hawkish statement accompanying the decision, helping to cement the original moves which look now to have some legs, likely seeing the AUDUSD break the 0.67 level this session. *RBA RAISES CASH RATE TARGET 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.85% *RBA: SOME FURTHER TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY MAY BE REQUIRED *RBA SAYS RATE RISE TO HELP ANCHOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) announced third quarter fiscal 2023 before the opening bell in the US on Friday. World’s largest consumer goods company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 101,000 (2021) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S.
Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $20.1 billion vs. $19.28 billion expected. EPS reported at $1.37 per share vs. analyst estimate of $1.323 per share.
CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 in what continues to be a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of Procter & Gamble said about the latest results in a press release. ''Our team’s strong execution of our strategies and our progress through three quarters enable us to raise our fiscal year outlook for sales growth and cash return to shareowners and maintain our guidance range for EPS growth despite continued cost and foreign exchange headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum, and we’re confident they remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation going forward,'' he concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock on Friday. Share price was up by around 3%, trading at around $156.44 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +6.58% 3 months: +9.38% Year-to-date: +3.18% 1 year: -3.02% Procter & Gamble price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $147 Berenberg Bank: $141 Evercore ISI: $160 Wells Fargo: $162 CFRA: $152 Procter & Gamble Company is the 20 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $369.12 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia