Berita & analisis pasar
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Pengumuman gencatan senjata 8 April dan diskusi paralel seputar gencatan senjata 45 hari belum menyelesaikan gangguan Selat Hormuz. Mereka, untuk saat ini, membatasi skenario terburuk, tetapi lalu lintas tanker tetap pada sebagian kecil dari tingkat normal dan permintaan Iran untuk biaya transit menandakan perubahan struktural, bukan yang sementara.
Apa yang dimulai sebagai konflik regional telah menjadi kejutan energi global, dan pertanyaan bagi pasar bukan lagi apakah Hormuz terganggu, tetapi seberapa permanen gangguan itu mengubah dasar harga untuk minyak.
Kuncinya yang menarik
- Sekitar 20 juta barel per hari (bpd) minyak dan produk minyak bumi biasanya melewati Selat Hormuz antara Iran dan Oman, setara dengan sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global.
- Ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah inventaris. Pasar minyak bergantung pada throughput berkelanjutan, bukan penyimpanan statis.
- Jika gangguan berlanjut lebih dari beberapa minggu, Brent dapat bergeser dari lonjakan jangka pendek ke guncangan harga yang lebih luas, dengan risiko stagflasi.
- Lalu lintas kapal tanker melalui selat turun dari sekitar 135 kapal per hari menjadi kurang dari 15 kapal pada puncak gangguan, pengurangan sekitar 85%, dengan lebih dari 150 kapal berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda.
- Gencatan senjata dua minggu diumumkan pada 8 April, dengan negosiasi gencatan senjata selama 45 hari sedang berlangsung. Iran secara terpisah telah mengisyaratkan permintaan biaya transit pada kapal-kapal yang menggunakan selat, yang, jika diformalkan, akan mewakili dasar geopolitik permanen pada biaya energi.
- Pasar telah mulai berputar menjauh dari pertumbuhan dan eksposur teknologi terhadap nama energi dan pertahanan, mencerminkan pandangan bahwa kenaikan minyak menjadi biaya struktural daripada premi risiko sementara.
Titik Chokepoint Minyak Paling Kritis di Dunia
Selat Hormuz menangani sekitar 20 juta barel per hari minyak dan produk minyak bumi, setara dengan sekitar 20% dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global. Dengan permintaan minyak global mendekati 104 juta barel per hari dan kapasitas cadangan terbatas, pasar sudah seimbang sebelum eskalasi terbaru.
Selat ini juga merupakan koridor penting untuk gas alam cair. Sekitar 290 juta meter kubik LNG transit setiap hari rata-rata pada tahun 2024, mewakili sekitar 20% dari perdagangan LNG global, dengan pasar Asia sebagai tujuan utama.
Badan Energi Internasional (IEA) telah menggambarkan Hormuz sebagai titik henti transit minyak yang paling penting di dunia, mencatat bahwa bahkan gangguan sebagian dapat memicu pergerakan harga yang terlalu besar. Minyak mentah Brent telah bergerak di atas US $100 per barel, mencerminkan keketatan fisik dan kenaikan premi risiko geopolitik.
Kapal tanker menganggur karena aliran lambat
Data pengiriman dan asuransi sekarang menunjukkan ketegangan secara real time. Lebih dari 85 kapal induk minyak mentah besar dilaporkan terdampar di Teluk Persia, sementara lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan atau ditunda karena operator menilai kembali keselamatan dan asuransi. Itu akan meninggalkan sekitar 120 juta hingga 150 juta barel minyak mentah menganggur di laut.
Volume tersebut hanya mewakili enam hingga tujuh hari throughput Hormuz normal, atau sedikit lebih dari satu hari konsumsi minyak global.
Data pengiriman dan asuransi yang diperbarui sekarang mengkonfirmasi lebih dari 150 kapal telah berlabuh, dialihkan, atau tertunda, naik dari 85 yang awalnya dilaporkan. Cakupan konsumsi global 1,3 hari dari minyak mentah yang tidak digunakan tetap menjadi kendala yang mengikat: ini adalah kejutan aliran, bukan masalah penyimpanan, dan gencatan senjata belum diterjemahkan ke dalam throughput yang dipulihkan secara bermakna.
Pasar yang dibangun di atas aliran, bukan penyimpanan
Pasar minyak berfungsi pada pergerakan terus menerus. Kilang, pabrik petrokimia, dan rantai pasokan global dikalibrasi untuk pengiriman yang stabil di sepanjang jalur laut yang dapat diprediksi. Ketika aliran melalui titik henti yang membawa sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global dan sekitar 30% dari perdagangan minyak laut global terganggu, sistem dapat bergerak dari keseimbangan ke defisit dalam beberapa hari.
Kapasitas produksi cadangan, sebagian besar terkonsentrasi di OPEC, diperkirakan hanya 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari. Itu jauh di bawah volume yang berisiko jika aliran Hormuz sangat terganggu.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Risiko inflasi dan limpahan makro
Dampak inflasi dari kejutan minyak biasanya datang dalam gelombang. Harga bahan bakar dan energi yang lebih tinggi dapat mengangkat inflasi utama dengan cepat karena biaya bensin, solar, dan listrik bergerak lebih tinggi.
Seiring waktu, biaya energi yang lebih tinggi dapat melewati pengiriman, makanan, manufaktur, dan layanan. Jika gangguan berlanjut, kombinasi peningkatan inflasi dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat dapat meningkatkan risiko lingkungan stagflasi dan membuat bank sentral menghadapi pertukaran yang sulit.
Tidak ada offset yang mudah, sistem dengan sedikit kelonggaran
Apa yang membuat episode saat ini sangat akut adalah kurangnya kelonggaran dalam sistem global.
Pasokan dan permintaan global mendekati 103 juta hingga 104 juta barel per hari meninggalkan sedikit bantalan cadangan ketika chokepoint penanganan hampir 20 juta barel per hari, atau sekitar seperlima dari konsumsi minyak global, terganggu. Diperkirakan kapasitas cadangan 3 juta hingga 5 juta barel per hari, sebagian besar di dalam OPEC, hanya akan mencakup sebagian kecil dari volume yang berisiko.
Rute alternatif, termasuk jaringan pipa yang melewati Hormuz dan mengalihkan rute pengiriman, hanya dapat mengimbangi sebagian arus yang hilang, dan biasanya dengan biaya yang lebih tinggi dan dengan waktu tunggu yang lebih lama.
Intinya
Sampai transit melalui Selat Hormuz dipulihkan dan dipandang aman secara kredibel, aliran minyak global kemungkinan akan tetap terganggu dan premi risiko meningkat. Bagi investor, pembuat kebijakan dan pembuat keputusan perusahaan, pertanyaan intinya adalah apakah minyak dapat bergerak ke tempat yang seharusnya, setiap hari, tanpa gangguan.
US software and hardware manufacturer, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), announced results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter after the market close on Monday. Company overview Founded: June 16, 1977 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 164,000 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software, business software, cloud computing, computer hardware, consulting Key people: Larry Ellison (Executive Chairman & CTO), Jeff Henley (Vice Chairman), Safra Catz (CEO) The results Oracle reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates of $12.941 billion (an increase of 5% year-over-year) for the quarter vs. $13.052 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.34 per share, above analyst estimate of $1.327 per share.
CEO commentary "Demand for our Cloud Infrastructure and Generative AI services is increasing at an astronomical rate. As a measure of that demand, Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) climbed to over $65 billion—exceeding annual revenue. Our cloud businesses are now at nearly a $20 billion-dollar annual revenue run rate, and cloud services demand continues to grow at unprecedented levels.
Business is good and getting better," Safra Catz, CEO of the company highlighted the growth of the company in a statement to investors. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.34% at the end of trading on Monday at $115.13 a share. The stock fell in the after-hours trading by around 9% after Oracle missed revenue estimates for the previous quarter.
Stock performance 1 month: 0.86% 3 months: -9.14% Year-to-date: +40.85% 1 year: +41.65% Oracle stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $107 Evercore ISI: $135 BMO Capital Markets: $130 Piper Sandler: $130 Guggenheim: $150 Berenberg Bank: $110 Mizuho: $150 HSBC: $144 JP Morgan: $100 Barclays: $147 UBS Group: $135 Citigroup: $138 Oracle Corporation is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $315.22 billion. You can trade Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) reported its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. World’s leading customer relationship management company topped both revenue and earnings per share estimates (EPS) for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Company overview Founded: February 3, 1999 Headquarters: Salesforce Tower, San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 79,390 (2023) Industry: Cloud computing, Enterprise software, Consulting Key people: Marc Benioff (Chairman & CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $8.72 billion vs. $8.715 billion expected.
Revenue was up by 11% vs. the same period last year. EPS reported at $2.11 per share (up by 50.71% year-over-year) vs. $2.055 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We had another strong quarter of executing on our profitable growth plan we set in motion last year, delivering $8.7 billion in revenue and again raising our operating margin guidance for this fiscal year," Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce commented on the latest results. "We're now the third largest enterprise software company by revenue, the number one AI CRM and the number one enterprise apps company.
Most importantly, we're bringing CRM, data, AI and trust together in a single, integrated platform, leading our customers into a new era of incredible productivity and growth," Benioff concluded. Stock reaction Shares of Salesforce ended Thursday’s session up by 2.41% at $230.35 a share. The stock was up by 8% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 1 month: +12.40% 3 months: +6.58% Year-to-date: +72.86% 1 year: +43.03% Salesforce stock price targets RBC Capital: $240 Piper Sandler: $232 Macquarie: $250 Truist Financial: $275 Goldman Sachs: $340 Citigroup: $230 Salesforce Inc. is the 41st largest company in the world with a market cap of $224.35 billion. You can trade Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Salesforce Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) reported Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday. The Chinese company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 12,992 (2022) Industry: Internet, Agriculture Key people: Lei Chen The results PDD reported revenue of $7.207 billion for the quarter (up by 94% year-over-year), well above the $5.982 billion expected.
EPS reported at $1.28 per share vs. $1.007 per share estimate. CEO commentary "We are dedicated to generating value through innovations, which forms the foundation of our high-quality development," Lei Chen, CEO of PDD Holdings said in the Q3 earnings report press release. "We continued to invest decisively in areas such as agritech, supply chain technology, and core R&D capabilities. Through these efforts, we aim to create our unique value" Chen highlighted where the company is looking to improve moving forward.
Stock reaction The latest results had a huge impact on the stock. Shares were up by over 18% on Tuesday at $139.84 a share – the highest level since March 2021. Stock performance 1 month: +37.67% 3 months: +49.78% Year-to-date: +71.21% 1 year: +78.02% PDD stock price targets HSBC: $125 Bank of America: $112 Credit Suisse: $140 Barclays: $115 JP Morgan: $120 PDD Holdings is the 58 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $185.31 billion.
You can trade PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PDD Holdings Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Macrotrends
One of the most anticipated earnings releases in the calendar is here. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) announced the latest results after the closing bell on Tuesday. Let’s see how one of the companies from the ''trillion club'' performed.
Company overview Founded: 5/4/1993 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 26,196 (2023) Industry: Computer hardware, computer software, cloud computing, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, GPUs Graphics cards Consumer electronics Video games Key people: Jensen Huang (President and CEO) The results NVIDIA reported revenue that beat Wall Street estimates at $18.12 billion for the third quarter fiscal 2024 vs. $16.12 billion expected. Revenues were up by 205% year-over-year. Earnings per share also beat estimates at $4.02 per share (up by 48.88% year-over-year) vs. $3.367 per share expected.
The company expects revenue of around $20 billion for the fourth quarter. CEO commentary "Our strong growth reflects the broad industry platform transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI," Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA said in a letter to investors. "Large language model startups, consumer internet companies and global cloud service providers were the first movers, and the next waves are starting to build. Nations and regional CSPs are investing in AI clouds to serve local demand, enterprise software companies are adding AI copilots and assistants to their platforms, and enterprises are creating custom AI to automate the world’s largest industries.
NVIDIA GPUs, CPUs, networking, AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software are all growth engines in full throttle. The era of generative AI is taking off," Huang highlighted how the world is adapting to and embracing AI. Stock reaction The stock was down by 0.92% at $499.44 a share before the results were announced.
Share price fell by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the market digested the latest results. Stock performance 1 month: +14.39% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: +241.75% 1 year: +211.41% NVIDIA stock price targets Stifel: $600 Piper Sandler: $620 Wedbush: $600 Bernstein: $675 Keybanc: $650 Morgan Stanley: $600 Citigroup: $575 Truist Securities: $668 Jefferies: $610 TD Cowen: $600 NVIDIA Corporation is the 6th largest company in the world with a market cap of $1.233 trillion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) released first quarter of fiscal 2024 earnings results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. US semiconductor company reported revenue of $4.726 billion, which was above Wall Street analyst estimate of $4.581 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reported loss per share of -$0.95 for the quarter vs. -$1.005 loss per share expected.
Company overview Founded: October 5, 1978 Headquarters: Boise, Idaho, United States Number of employees: Robert E. Switz (Chairman), Sanjay Mehrotra (President & CEO) Industry: Semiconductors Key people: 43,000 (2023) CEO commentary "Micron’s strong execution and pricing drove better-than-anticipated first quarter financial results," Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of the company said in a press release. "We expect our business fundamentals to improve throughout 2024, with record industry TAM projected for calendar 2025. Our industry-leading High Bandwidth Memory for data center AI applications illustrates the strength of our technology and product roadmaps, and we are well positioned to capitalize on the immense opportunities artificial intelligence is fueling across end markets," Mehrotra looked at what’s ahead for Micron.
Stock reaction The stock was down by 4.24% at the end of trading on Wednesday at $78.69 a share. Shares rose by around 4% after Micron topped analyst estimates for the quarter. Stock performance 1 month: +2.13% 3 months: +13% Year-to-date: +57.54% 1 year: +53.82% Micron Technology stock price targets Rosenblatt Securities: $100 BMO Capital Markets: $90 TD Cowen: $100 Susquehanna: $112 Stifel Nicolaus: $76 Bank of America: $95 UBS Group: $90 Mizuho: $86 Citigroup: $88 Barclays: $85 Morgan Stanley: $71.50 JP Morgan: $80 Micron Technology Inc. is the 168th largest company in the world with a market cap of $86.86 billion.
You can trade Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Micron Technology Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
One of the largest food retailers in the United States, Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), announced Q3 earnings results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Thursday. Company overview Founded: 1883 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 465,000 (2022) Industry: Retail Key people: Rodney McMullen (CEO & Chairman) The results Korger reported revenue of $33.957 billion for the quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $33.903 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.95 per share vs. $0.907 per share expected.
CEO commentary Rodney McMullen, CEO of the company had this to say in the letter to investors after the release of Q3 results: "Kroger's third quarter results highlight the strength and diversity of our business model in a challenged operating environment, as strong fuel performance and growth in our alternative profit businesses supported continued adjusted net earnings per diluted share growth. As consumer spending tightens, we are focused on providing customers with exceptional value. By maintaining our long-term commitment to lower prices, personalised promotions and rewards, we are growing households and increasing loyalty, positioning Kroger for sustainable future growth.
We appreciate our associates and continue to invest in wages, benefits and training, which is resulting in continued improvements in our customer experience. "Our model's strength allows us to navigate many economic environments. We remain committed to balancing investments in associates and greater value for our customers while continuing to generate attractive and sustainable returns for our shareholders," McMullen highlighted the importance of the companies strategy to continue deliver solid results in the future. Stock reaction The stock had a positive reaction following the Q3 results announcement.
Shares were up by just over 2% at $44.59 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -1.59% 3 months: -3.69% Year-to-date: +0.22% 1 year: -7.71% Kroger stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $44.88 Roth MKM: $48 Deutsche Bank: $50 Bernstein: $54 BMO Capital: $45 Northcoast Research: $60 Kroger Co. is the 549th largest company in the world with a market cap of $32.29 billion. You can trade Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Kroger Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, TipRanks, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap, FactSet