Terobosan emas di atas US $5.000 dan lonjakan perak melalui US $100 sinyal tahun ini bisa menjadi salah satu buku sejarah bagi pedagang logam (dengan satu atau lain cara).

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Fakta singkat

• Meningkatnya permintaan safe-haven mengangkat target Emas dari US $5.400 menjadi US $6.000 setelah terobosan awal tahun US$5.000.
• Kecerdasan buatan (AI) dan peningkatan infrastruktur pusat data dapat membantu mendorong permintaan perak dan tembaga.
• Ketidakpastian geopolitik yang berkelanjutan dan perubahan kebijakan moneter dapat memicu volatilitas logam sepanjang tahun.

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5 logam teratas untuk ditonton pada tahun 2026

1. Emas

Terobosan emas di atas US $5.100 tiba tiga kuartal di atas beberapa perkiraan. Dengan Bank of America dengan cepat menaikkan target akhir tahun menjadi US $6.000 dan Goldman Sachs memproyeksikan US $5.400, komoditas safe-haven tetap menjadi aset terbesar dalam fokus untuk tahun 2026.

Driver utama:

• Bank sentral saat ini membeli rata-rata 60 ton emas per bulan, dibandingkan dengan 17 ton sebelum 2022.
• Dua pemotongan suku bunga Fed dihargai untuk tahun 2026, mengurangi biaya peluang memegang aset non-imbal hasil seperti emas.
• Kebijakan tarif Trump, ketegangan Timur Tengah, dan kekhawatiran keberlanjutan fiskal membuat permintaan safe-haven tetap tinggi.
• Pangsa emas dari total aset keuangan mencapai 2,8% pada Q3 2025, dengan ruang untuk tumbuh seiring berjalannya FOMO ritel.

Apa yang harus ditonton

• Jerome Powell akan digantikan sebagai ketua Fed pada Mei 2026. Arah kebijakan aktual pasca-penggantian mungkin berbeda dari ekspektasi pasar saat ini untuk pemotongan.
• Jika lindung nilai geopolitik ke tempat berlindung yang aman tetap ada atau jika ada pelepasan seperti pasca-pemilihan AS 2024.
• Potensi persenjataan kepemilikan aset dolar oleh negara-negara Eropa sebagai tanggapan terhadap tarif AS.

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2. Perak

Perak adalah logam yang paling diuntungkan dari ledakan AI 2025, dengan lonjakan ke level tertinggi sepanjang masa US$112 untuk memulai 2026 (70% di atas nilai fundamental sesuai sinyal Bank of America), menunjukkan potensi volatilitasnya.

Driver kunci

• Permintaan industri dari infrastruktur AI, tenaga surya, dan kendaraan listrik (EV), semikonduktor dan pusat data saat ini tidak memiliki pengganti yang layak untuk konduktivitas perak.
• Enam tahun berturut-turut defisit pasokan, dengan stok di atas tanah menipis dan kemacetan daur ulang membatasi pasokan sekunder.
• Optik kebijakan mungkin penting. Keputusan AS untuk menambahkan perak ke daftar “mineral kritis” telah dikutip sebagai faktor potensial dalam volatilitas, termasuk seputar risiko kebijakan perdagangan.
• Partisipasi ritel dapat memperkuat pergerakan harga, terutama ketika permintaan emas menjadi “terlalu mahal”.

Apa yang harus ditonton

• Jika permintaan panel surya melanjutkan lintasannya, atau jika 2025 adalah puncaknya.
• Apakah pasokan daur ulang merespons rekor harga dengan meningkatkan pemurnian perak dan kapasitas pemrosesan material.
• Bagaimana persediaan pertukaran dan suku bunga sewa bergerak sebagai sinyal potensial dari keketatan fisik.

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3. Tembaga

Kisah Copper tahun 2026 bergantung pada permintaan pusat data yang berkelanjutan, pertumbuhan infrastruktur energi terbarukan, dan pasar properti China yang sedang berjuang.

Driver kunci

• Konsumsi tembaga pusat data diproyeksikan mencapai 475.000 ton pada tahun 2026, naik 110.000 ton dari tahun 2025.
• Pemogokan pekerja di Chili dan penundaan memulai kembali Grasberg membuat pasar Tembaga tetap ketat secara struktural.
• Keputusan tarif AS pada impor tembaga olahan diharapkan pada pertengahan 2026 (15% + saat ini diantisipasi), menciptakan potensi penimbunan dan distorsi arus perdagangan.
• Goldman Sachs telah memperkirakan bahwa infrastruktur jaringan listrik dan pembangunan EV dapat menambah permintaan tembaga “Amerika Serikat lain” pada tahun 2030.
• Kelemahan properti China saat ini menciptakan ketidakpastian permintaan, berpotensi mengimbangi pengeluaran infrastruktur.

Apa yang harus ditonton

• Apakah Grasberg meningkatkan produksi dengan lancar atau menghadapi kemunduran lebih lanjut.
• Efektivitas stimulus pasar properti China.
• Waktu dan besarnya implementasi tarif aktual.
• Pergerakan premium Yangshan menandakan permintaan fisik nyata versus posisi keuangan.

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4. Aluminium

Perdagangan mendekati level tertinggi tiga tahun yaitu US $3.200, aluminium menghadapi keketatan yang berlanjut hingga 2026 karena plafon kapasitas China memaksa pasar global untuk menyesuaikan diri.

Driver kunci

• Batas kapasitas 45 juta ton China tercapai pada tahun 2025. Untuk pertama kalinya dalam beberapa dekade, produksi China tidak dapat berkembang, berpotensi mengakhiri 80% pertumbuhan pasokan global.
• Seiring kenaikan harga tembaga, Reuters telah melaporkan bahwa beberapa produsen telah mengganti aluminium dengan tembaga dalam aplikasi tertentu karena harga relatif bergeser.

Apa yang harus ditonton

• South32 mengatakan Mozal Aluminium diperkirakan akan ditempatkan pada perawatan dan pemeliharaan sekitar 15 Maret 2026, sehingga menghilangkan pasokan signifikan Mozambik 560.000 ton.
• Jika penambahan kapasitas lepas pantai Indonesia dan China dapat mengimbangi plafon domestik China.
• Restart Mount Holly seberat 50.000 ton Century Aluminium pada Q2 dapat memberikan sinyal bagi industri yang lebih luas karena smelter diperkirakan akan mencapai produksi penuh pada 30 Juni 2026.

5. Platinum

Pelemahan Platinum di atas US $2.800 menyusul tiga tahun berturut-turut defisit pasokan dan peningkatan adopsi sel bahan bakar hidrogen (yang merupakan komponen penting).

Driver kunci

• Dewan Investasi Platinum Dunia (WPIC) telah memperkirakan defisit pasokan yang signifikan sebesar 850.000 ons pada tahun 2026 yang dapat menguras persediaan, dengan produksi baru terbatas yang datang secara online.
• WPIC memperkirakan penyerapan 875.000 hingga 900.000 ons pada tahun 2030 untuk truk tugas berat, bus, dan elektroliser hidrogen hijau.
• Substitusi paladium-ke-platinum dalam konverter katalitik meningkat dalam produksi EV.

Apa yang harus ditonton

• Respon pasokan dari produsen. Platreef dan Bakubung menambahkan 150.000 ons, tetapi disiplin produksi dapat membatasi peningkatan yang lebih luas.
• Tarif AS pada paladium Rusia dapat menciptakan permintaan limpahan platinum dalam produksi EV.
• Laju investasi infrastruktur hidrogen dan tingkat adopsi kendaraan tugas berat di Eropa, China, dan AS.
• Permintaan perhiasan China bisa ikut berperan. Hanya substitusi 1% dari emas dapat memperlebar defisit platinum sebesar 10% dari pasokan global.

‍Anda dapat memperdagangkan Emas, Perak, dan lainnya CFD Komoditas, termasuk energi dan produk pertanian, pada Pasar GO.

Mulai trading CFD Komoditas

Pasar FX memasuki jendela penting dengan keputusan kebijakan Federal Reserve dan konferensi pers, data aktivitas ISM AS, rilis inflasi Jerman, PMI China, dan angka tenaga kerja Australia semuanya jatuh tempo.

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Fakta singkat

• Yang akan datang Keputusan kebijakan Fed dan konferensi pers diawasi ketat untuk panduan tentang potensi waktu penurunan suku bunga, dengan implikasi untuk imbal hasil Treasury AS dan arah USD.
• Luas Penjualan USD meningkat selama 48 jam terakhir. Langkah ini bertepatan dengan retorika tarif yang diperbarui dan sensitivitas yang meningkat terhadap narasi intervensi FX.
• PMI Manufaktur ISM Dijadwalkan untuk Senin, 2 Februari, dengan ISM Services PMI pada Rabu, 4 Februari, memberikan wawasan tepat waktu tentang momentum pertumbuhan AS.
• CPI Jerman, PDB dan pengangguran kawasan euro, PMI China, dan data tenaga kerja Australia memberikan konteks regional, terutama untuk persilangan EUR dan AUD.

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USD/JPY

Apa yang harus ditonton

Keputusan Federal Reserve dan konferensi pers berikutnya adalah peristiwa penting yang mempengaruhi imbal hasil Treasury AS.

Setiap perubahan nada seputar kemajuan inflasi, risiko ekonomi, atau ekspektasi waktu penurunan suku bunga dapat mempengaruhi perbedaan hasil dan sensitivitas USD jangka pendek.

Kelemahan USD yang luas baru-baru ini, diperkuat oleh berita utama terkait tarif dan sensitivitas intervensi, telah menambah tekanan penurunan pada USD.

Di sisi JPY, sinyal inflasi Jepang, termasuk CPI Tokyo, relevan sebagai indikator tren harga domestik dan arah kebijakan potensial.

Rilis dan acara utama

• Kamis 30 Jan: Jepang Tokyo CPI (Januari)
• Kamis 30 Jan: Keputusan kebijakan Federal Reserve dan konferensi pers
• Sen 2 Feb: PMI Manufaktur ISM AS
• Rab 4 Feb: PMI Layanan ISM AS

Cuplikan teknis

USDJPY telah menembus lebih rendah dari zona konsolidasi baru-baru ini, dengan kisaran penurunan terbukti selama 48 jam terakhir. Harga telah bergerak turun ke rata-rata pergerakan 200 eksponensial (EMA) dan sedang menguji level yang tidak terlihat sejak Oktober 2025.

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EUR/USD

Apa yang harus ditonton

Keputusan Fed dan konferensi pers dapat mempengaruhi EUR/USD terutama melalui pergerakan USD terkait dengan reaksi imbal hasil Treasury.

Di sisi EUR, IHK Jerman akan menunjukkan tren inflasi, sementara PDB flash kawasan euro dan data pengangguran menginformasikan prospek pertumbuhan regional.

Rilis dan acara utama

• Kamis 29 Jan: CPI Jerman (pendahuluan)
• Kamis 29 Jan: PDB kilat zona euro, Q4 2025
• Kamis 30 Jan: Keputusan Federal Reserve dan konferensi pers
• Jum 30 Jan: Tingkat pengangguran zona euro

Cuplikan teknis

EURUSD telah meluas di atas level resistance sebelumnya, dengan rentang harian yang diperluas dan momentum yang kuat. Aksi harga di persimpangan USD lainnya menunjukkan pergerakan tersebut mungkin mencerminkan kelemahan USD, bukan pergeseran material dalam fundamental kawasan euro.

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EUR/AUD

Apa yang harus ditonton

Bersamaan dengan angka pertumbuhan kawasan euro, data ketenagakerjaan Australia dapat mempengaruhi sensitivitas EUR/AUD jangka pendek menjelang keputusan kebijakan RBA minggu depan.

PMI resmi China tetap relevan, karena perubahan ekspektasi aktivitas China dapat mempengaruhi AUD melalui permintaan komoditas dan sentimen risiko regional.

Rilis dan acara utama

• Kamis 29 Jan: Angkatan Kerja Australia, Dirinci (Desember 2025), 11:30 pagi AEDT
• Jum 31 Jan: PMI Manufaktur dan Non-Manufaktur resmi China
• Sel 4 Feb: Keputusan kebijakan RBA

Cuplikan teknis

EUR/AUD telah secara tegas menembus di bawah zona support sebelumnya, dengan tingkat pengujian harga yang sekarang tidak terlihat sejak April 2025. Momentum tetap negatif, konsisten dengan fase penurunan baru daripada konsolidasi.

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Intinya

Keputusan Fed dan konferensi pers, data PMI AS, rilis inflasi Jerman, PMI China, dan angka tenaga kerja Australia dikelompokkan dalam jendela pendek.

Pasar akan mengawasi apakah kelemahan USD terbukti selama 48 jam terakhir meluas lebih jauh.

Expected earnings date: Thursday, 29 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Friday, 30 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

iPhone

The iPhone remains Apple’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on unit demand, product mix (including higher-end models), and any signals on upgrade momentum and regional trends.

Services

Investors are likely to focus on growth across areas such as the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and other subscriptions, alongside any commentary on average revenue per user (ARPU). The size and engagement of Apple’s installed base remain central to overall performance.

Wearables, home and accessories

This segment includes products such as Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats headphones, home-related devices, and accessories. Investors are likely to watch revenue trends in this segment as an indicator of discretionary consumer demand. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has flagged tariff and component cost pressures in prior commentary. Markets may remain sensitive to gross margin commentary and any signals of incremental cost pressure or mitigation strategies. 

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What happened last quarter

Apple’s most recent quarterly update (fiscal Q4 2025) highlighted record September-quarter revenue and EPS, alongside record Services revenue and continued emphasis on installed-base strength.  

The prior update also included discussion of holiday-quarter expectations and cost headwinds (including tariffs), which have influenced expected margins and management guidance.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$102.5 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.85 (diluted) 
• iPhone revenue: US$49.03 billion 
• Services revenue: US$28.75 billion 
• Net income: US$27.5 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Apple shares rose in after-hours trading following the release, as investors assessed the results against analyst expectations and management’s holiday-quarter commentary, including tariff-related cost pressures and regional demand considerations. 

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to year-on-year EPS growth, with markets also focused on the revenue outcome and gross margins, given the scale and importance of the holiday quarter for Apple’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• EPS: about US$2.65 
• Revenue: about US$138 billion 
• Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$8.1 

*All above points observed as of 26 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Apple may be sensitive to any disappointment on holiday-quarter revenue, Services momentum, or margin commentary, given the stock’s large index weight and the importance of this reporting period. 

Listed options were implying an indicative move of around ±3% to ±4% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 25 January 2026.  Implied volatility was approximately 29% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Apple’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Asia-Pacific markets head into the week with Australia’s CPI as the key domestic catalyst, Japan’s month-end inflation and activity data keeping JPY and equities in focus, and China’s official PMI providing an important read on regional growth momentum.

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Quick facts

• China: NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December 2025. Consensus for Saturday’s release is 50.2. 
• Australia: CPI, Australia (Dec) is the key local catalyst, with implications for rate expectations and AUD pricing. 
• Japan: Tokyo CPI and month-end labour/activity data keep USD/JPY and Nikkei futures in focus following last week’s BoJ meeting. 
• Global backdrop: US earnings momentum, US CPI expectations and geopolitical developments remain secondary but relevant drivers for Asia-Pacific risk sentiment.

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China

Attention turns to China’s official PMI after December’s improvement saw the PMI move back above 50—a level commonly interpreted as expansion in the survey, though month-to-month readings can be volatile. 

Consensus suggests a rise to 50.2; if met, it may help reinforce the view that growth momentum is stabilising into early 2026. 

Key release

• Sat 31 Jan: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Jan)

How markets may respond

• Regional equities and risk: Sustained PMI readings above 50 could support broader Asia risk appetite and materials-linked sectors. A reversal below 50 may temper recent optimism.
• AUD spillover: China-sensitive assets, including the AUD and materials stocks on the ASX, may react alongside domestic CPI outcomes.

Japan

Following last week’s BoJ meeting, focus shifts to Tokyo CPI and month-end activity data. These releases late in the week may shape near-term expectations around Japan’s inflation trajectory and the tone of the dataflow.

Key events

• Thu 29 Jan: Tokyo CPI (Jan) (medium sensitivity) 
• Fri 30 Jan: Japan unemployment (Dec), retail sales (Dec), industrial production (Dec) (medium sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• USD/JPY: Month-end inflation and activity data can drive front-end rate repricing, with USD/JPY remaining a key transmission channel.
• JP225 (Nikkei futures): The contract has recently traded in a defined range. Market participants may monitor the ~54,250 area on the upside and ~52,250 on the downside as reference points, with price action around these levels often used to gauge whether the range is persisting. 

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Australia

Australia’s week is dominated by the CPI release.  The outcome may influence rate expectations, with the next scheduled RBA decision still in the balance.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures imply around a 56% probability of a cash-rate increase at the next scheduled RBA decision (implied pricing can change quickly and is not a forecast). 

AUD pricing is likely to remain sensitive alongside broader global risk conditions. 

Key release

• Wed 28 Jan: CPI, Australia (Dec) (high sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• ASX 200: Rate-sensitive sectors may react more to the policy implications than the headline CPI number, particularly given recent strength in materials.
• AUD/USD: CPI outcomes may influence whether AUD/USD sustains around/above its current zone or drifts back toward prior trading ranges. 

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.

Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.

Autonomy and software (FSD)

Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction. 

Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.

Energy generation and storage

Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution. 

Robotics (Optimus)

Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations. 

Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.

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What happened last quarter?

In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics. 

Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below). 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted) 
• Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%; 
• Operating margin: ~5.8% 
• Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion 
• Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY) 

How did the market react last time?

Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue. 

What’s expected this quarter?

As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change. 

Key consensus reference points include: 

• Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion 
• EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted) 
• Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles 
• Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower 
• Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

Key areas markets often focus on include:

• Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
• Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
• Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
• Capex and implications for future FCF
• Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
• Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities

Expectations

Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.

Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.

Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation). 

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.

For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Intelligent Cloud (Azure)

Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.

Productivity and Business Processes

Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.

Personal Computing

Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.

Artificial intelligence

Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.

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What happened last quarter

Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues. 

Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.

Last earnings key highlights:

• Revenue: US$77.7 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted) 
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
• Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year 
• Operating income: US$38.0 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion 
• EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted) 
• Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable 
• Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.

Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16^th January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.

As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.