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ECB’s Lane warns underlying inflation may rise as energy prices fall
The European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said that “it would be a surprise if there are no second-round effects,” and that if energy prices edge lower, “headline inflation could fall while underlying inflation rises,” he said at the Bank of England and its Watchers Conference.
Lane added that the ECB puts a “very high premium on consensus” in the Governing Council, adding that he would put a “high bar on directional forward guidance now.”
Key takeaways:
We put a very high premium on consensus, would be difficult with dots
I would put a high bar on directional forward guidance now
Important that ECB has an instrument for multiple equilibriums on bond market
It's informative that underlying inflation hasn't moved yet, it means it's the usual delayed response
Underlying inflation is a guide to 1-year ahead inflation
Energy prices are already reversing; if that continues, headline inflation could fall while underlying inflation rises
It would be a surprise if there are no second-round effects
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.53% | 0.75% | 0.56% | 0.50% | 0.89% | 0.53% | 0.74% | |
| EUR | -0.53% | 0.21% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.36% | 0.02% | 0.21% | |
| GBP | -0.75% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.21% | 0.14% | -0.22% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.56% | -0.02% | 0.19% | -0.04% | 0.34% | -0.02% | 0.19% | |
| CAD | -0.50% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.38% | 0.02% | 0.23% | |
| AUD | -0.89% | -0.36% | -0.14% | -0.34% | -0.38% | -0.36% | -0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.53% | -0.02% | 0.22% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.36% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.74% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.19% | -0.23% | 0.15% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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