市场资讯及洞察
4月8日宣布的停火以及围绕45天休战的平行讨论并未解决霍尔木兹海峡的混乱问题。目前，他们已经限制了最坏的情况，但油轮运输量仍处于正常水平的一小部分，伊朗对过境费的需求预示着结构性转变，而不是暂时的转变。
最初的地区冲突已成为全球能源冲击，市场面临的问题不再是霍尔木兹是否受到干扰，而是这种混乱对石油的最低定价产生了多大的永久性影响。
关键要点
- 每天约有2000万桶（桶）的石油和石油产品通常通过伊朗和阿曼之间的霍尔木兹海峡，相当于全球石油消费量的约五分之一，约占全球海运石油贸易的30％。
- 这是流量冲击，不是库存问题。石油市场依赖于持续的吞吐量，而不是静态存储。
- 如果中断持续超过几周，布伦特原油可能会从短期飙升转向更广泛的价格冲击，存在滞胀风险。
- 穿越海峡的油轮运输量从每天约135艘下降到中断高峰期的不到15艘船只，减少了约85％，超过150艘船只停泊、改道或延误。
- 4月8日宣布了为期两周的停火，为期45天的休战谈判正在进行之中。伊朗已分别表示要求对使用该海峡的船只收取过境费，如果正式确定，这将是能源成本的永久地缘政治最低标准。
- 市场已经开始从增长和技术敞口转向能源和国防企业，这反映了人们的观点，即石油价格上涨正在成为结构性成本，而不是暂时的风险溢价。
世界上最关键的石油阻塞点
霍尔木兹海峡每天处理大约2000万桶石油和石油产品，相当于全球石油消费量的20％和全球海运石油贸易的30％左右。由于全球石油需求接近1.04亿桶/日，且剩余产能有限，在最近的升级之前，市场已经处于紧密平衡状态。
该海峡也是液化天然气的重要走廊。2024年，平均每天约有2.9亿立方米的液化天然气通过该路线，约占全球液化天然气贸易的20％，亚洲市场是主要目的地。
国际能源署（IEA）将霍尔木兹描述为世界上最重要的石油运输阻塞点，并指出，即使是部分中断也可能引发价格的大幅波动。布伦特原油已跌破每桶100美元，这既反映了物质紧张，也反映了地缘政治风险溢价的上升。
由于流量减慢，油轮处于空转状态
现在，航运和保险数据实时显示压力。据报道，超过85艘大型原油运输船滞留在波斯湾，而由于运营商重新评估安全和保险，有150多艘船舶停泊、改道或延误。据估计，这将使1.2亿至1.5亿桶原油在海上闲置。
这些量仅代表霍尔木兹正常吞吐量的六到七天，或略高于一天的全球石油消费。
最新的航运和保险数据现在证实，有150多艘船只停泊、改道或延误，高于最初报告的85艘船只。闲置原油的1.3天全球消费保障仍然是约束性制约因素：这是流量冲击，不是储存问题，停火尚未转化为产量的实质性恢复。
建立在流量而不是存储基础上的市场
石油市场在持续波动中运作。炼油厂、石化厂和全球供应链经过调整，可以沿着可预测的海道稳定交付。当流经占全球石油消耗量约五分之一和全球海运石油贸易约30％的阻塞点时，该系统可以在几天之内从平衡变为赤字。
剩余产能主要集中在欧佩克内，估计仅为每天300万至500万桶。这远低于霍尔木兹水流受到严重干扰时面临的风险交易量。
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
通货膨胀风险和宏观溢出效应
石油冲击的通货膨胀影响通常以波浪形式出现。随着汽油、柴油和电力成本的上涨，燃料和能源价格的上涨可能会迅速提振总体通货膨胀。
随着时间的推移，更高的能源成本可能会流向货运、食品、制造业和服务业。如果混乱持续下去，通货膨胀率上升和增长放缓相结合，可能会增加滞胀环境的风险，使中央银行面临艰难的权衡。
不容易抵消，系统几乎没有松弛
当前局势之所以特别严重，是因为全球体系缺乏松弛。
当处理近2,000万桶/日（约占全球石油消耗量的五分之一）的阻塞点受到损害时，将近1.03亿至1.04亿桶的全球供需几乎没有备用缓冲。估计每天300万至500万桶的剩余产能，主要在欧佩克内部，只能覆盖风险产量的一小部分。
替代路线，包括绕过霍尔木兹的管道和改道运输，只能部分抵消流量的损失，而且通常成本更高，交货时间更长。
底线
在霍尔木兹海峡的过境恢复并被视为可靠安全之前，全球石油流动可能继续受损，风险溢价上升。对于投资者、政策制定者和企业决策者来说，核心问题是石油能否每天不间断地转移到需要去的地方。
Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) released its financial results for Q2 after the market close in the US on Tuesday. The company reported revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations at $808.325 million for Q2 vs. $873.82 million expected. Coinbase reported a loss per share of -$4.98 per share vs. -$2.47 loss per share expected. ''Q2 was a test of durability for crypto companies and a complex quarter overall.
Dramatic market movements shifted user behaviour and trading volume, which impacted transaction revenue, but also highlighted the strength of our risk management program. We are focusing on our top business priorities and more tightly managing expenses.'' ''The decline in crypto asset prices significantly impacted our Q2 financial results, which were consistent with the outlook provided in May. Net revenue was $803 million, down 31% compared to Q1, driven by lower trading volume.
Total operating expenses were $1.9 billion, up 8% compared to Q1. Net loss was $1.1 billion and was heavily impacted by non-cash impairment charges. Absent non-cash impairment charges, net loss would have been $647 million.
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $151 million,'' the company wrote in a letter to shareholders. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) chart Share price of Coinbase was down by 10.55% on Tuesday, trading $87.49 a share. The stock fell further in after-hours following the release of the latest financial results, down by around 3%.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month +61.65% 3 months +20.13% Year-to-date -65.26% 1 year -67.49% Coinbase price targets Citigroup $105 DA Davidson $90 Mizuho $42 JMP Securities $205 Atlantic Equities $54 Goldman Sachs $45 JP Morgan $68 Coinbase Global Inc. is the 754 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $22.96 billion. You can trade Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Coinbase Global Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Fears of slowing growth and weak Chinese data have forced China to ramp up its efforts to stimulate its economy and reassure investors: Record $83 billion injection: China injected a large amount of money in its economy. $83 billion was placed in the country’s financial system to avoid a cash crunch that would add further pressure to an “already” weakening economy. Spending Plans: Amid a raft of measures, China has approved a whopping $125bn of new rail projects over the past month. China is increasing its approvals for new projects and fiscal spending to counteract the slowdown.
Tax Cuts: China has put forward plans for the private sector and small business and is turning to tax cuts as a primary defence for its slowing economy. As uncertainties around tariffs continue, China is helping private companies and small business to obtain financing and increasing consumer spending. As of writing, the GDP (YoY) came at 6.4% from 6.5%, and we expect China’s economy to weaken in the lower range of the 6% mark amid the current external and domestic challenges.
Trade tensions have shaken business and consumer confidence and have further slowed economic growth. Even though there is more optimism on trade talks and higher chances of a truce deal, we expect trade negotiations to be bumpy and lengthy. The real economic implications may become more apparent in the coming months, and this can weigh on risk sentiment.
We expect to continue observing more actions from China during the year. The weak data is also giving room for policymakers to put forward more growth-supportive measures in the near term to stimulate growth and bring stability to its economy. So far, the stimulus actions coupled with positive trade talks helped the Chinese Yuan and the Shanghai Index to climb higher.
After a bruising year, the Index rose by more than 130 points since the beginning of the year.
Beyond Meat Inc. reported their latest financial results for Q4 2021 after the closing bell on Wall Street today. The US plant-based meat substitute producer company fell short of analyst expectations for the last quarter, sending the stock price lower in the after-market hours. The company reported revenue of $100.678 million in Q4 (decrease of 1.2% year-over-year) vs. $101.044 million expected.
Loss per share reported at -$1.27 a share, way above analyst forecast -$0.70 a share. Net revenue for 2021 at $464.7 million – an increase of 14.2% year-over-year. "In 2021 we saw strong growth in our international channel net revenues, as well as sporadic yet promising signs of a resumption of growth in U.S. foodservice channel net revenues as COVID-19 variants peaked and declined. These gains, however, were dampened by what we believe to be a temporary disruption in U.S. retail growth, for our brand and the broader category.
Despite the variability and challenges of the year, we did not deviate from building the foundation for our long-term growth. The investments we made in our team, infrastructure, and capabilities across the U.S., EU, and China, as well as extensive product scaling activities for key strategic partners, weighed heavily on operating expenses and gross margin during a fourth quarter and year that were already impacted by lower than expected volumes. However, we believe these investments will be instrumental in driving our long-term growth," Ethan Brown, Beyond Meat CEO said in a statement following the latest financial results from the company. "As we begin 2022, we are pleased with the progress we are making against our long-term strategy, such as the number of tests and core menu placements recently announced by our global QSR partners.
Though we will continue to invest during 2022, we expect to substantially moderate the growth of our operating expenses as we leverage the building blocks we now have in place to serve our customers, consumers, and markets — bringing forward our exciting and expansive future one delicious serving at a time," Brown added. Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) chart (Weekly) Shares of Beyond Meat were up by 3.38% on Thursday at $48.64. However, the stock fell sharply in the after-hours – down by around 10%.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -13.37% 3 Month: -35.14% Year-to-date: -24.80% 1 Year: -65.91% Beyond Meat Inc. is the 2973 rd largest company in the world with total market cap of $3.10 billion. You can trade Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Beyond Meat Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap
Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (BABA) reported its latest financial results before the market open on Thursday. The Chinese e-commerce giant reported revenue of $30.689 billion for the quarter vs. $30.364 billion expected. Earnings per share were reported at $1.75 per share vs. $1.60 per share expected.
Daniel Zhang, Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group commented on the results: ''During the past quarter, we actively adapted to changes in the macro environment and remained focused on our long-term strategy by continuing to strengthen our capability for customer value creation.'' ''Following a relatively slow April and May, we saw signs of recovery across our businesses in June. We are confident in our growth opportunities in the long term given our high-quality consumer base and the resilience of our diversified business model catering to different demands of our customers,'' Zhang added. ''Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 resurgence, we delivered stable revenue performance year-over-year. We have narrowed losses in key strategic businesses given ongoing improvements in operating efficiency and increasing focus on cost optimization,'' said Toby Xu, CFO of Alibaba Group. ''We recently shared our plan to add Hong Kong as another primary listing venue.
By becoming primary listed on both Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges, we aim to further expand and diversify our investor base,'' Xu concluded. Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (BABA) chart Share price of Alibaba was up by around 1% on Thursday, trading at $96.93 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -21.79% 3 Month +14% Year-to-date -19.42% 1 Year -51.97% Alibaba price targets B of A Securities $155 Bernstein $130 Benchmark $205 JP Morgan $140 HSBC $141 Citigroup $172 Truist Securities $145 Barclays $161 Alibaba Group Holdings Limited is the 31 st largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.21 billion.
You can trade Alibaba Group Holdings Limited (BABA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Alibaba Group Holdings Limited, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
热门话题
就在刚刚，地球上最重要的公司英伟达(NVDA.NAS)最新2025财年Q2财报已出炉，业绩超预期，股价却狂跌。股价表现上，周三美股盘前英伟达涨超1.4%最高$129.1后回落$128.5附近。开盘后收跌超2%报$125.61，美股七姐妹也受影响全部下跌，其中特斯拉、亚马逊、Alphabet（谷歌）跌幅超过1%。周四早盘后业绩公布超预期，但是盘后股价一路下跌，跌幅一度超过8%，盘后报$117，严重拖累AI板块和纳指，下面我们结合最新财报分析下。
英伟达2025财年Q2业绩：- 总收入：市场预期286.7亿美元，实际304亿美元，同比增长125%；但是2025财年Q3营收指引为325亿美元（+/-2%），增速放缓至80%- 净利润：实际166亿美元，同比增长168%- 毛利率：市场预期调整后75.7%，GAAP调整后毛利率75.1%，非GAAP调整毛利率75%，受Blackwell低产出影响相比第一季度有下滑，当前此数值仍位居7巨头第一位，但是电话会议中暗示70%可能是2025财年中位水平。英伟达给出的Q3指引GAAP调整后毛利润74.4%，非GAAP调整后毛利润75%（+/-0.5%）。- EPS：市场预期非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益$0.64，实际$0.68，同比增长152%业务板块细分方面，数据中心市场预期$250.23，实际263亿美元，同比增长154%；游戏业务营收28.8亿美元，同比增长16%；专业可视化：4.54亿美元，同比增长20%；汽车和自动化业务营收3.46亿美元，同比增长37%。电话会议中提到Blackwell芯片预计四季度实现量产，也就是明年才能看到盈利兑现，尽管会议中黄仁勋多次表示未来对于Hopper芯片和生成式AI需求非常强劲，但是由于大家对公司期望太高和太急切，资本支出和ROI的推迟兑现已经迅速反映在股票波动上。从一季度英伟达的主要客户微软、谷歌、Meta和亚马逊等资本支出来看，后续指引大几率可以兑现，大家不用过于恐慌。
投资者经常高估短期内技术的颠覆性影响，但低估长期影响。美银报告指出，未来几年AI的资本支出可能达到1万亿美元以上，但是对标互联网发展历程我们才刚刚进入1996年。我们都知道AI开发和企业应用推广需要时间，一款芯片通常会在经历过多次流片、寻找工艺缺陷并改进之后才能送入流水线中进行批量生产，甚至调整的过程到此也依旧不会停止，它将会伴随芯片的几乎整个生产周期，预计成本节约和创收潜力将逐渐显现。以快餐店为例，平均工资15美元/小时的全职员工给快餐店带来的全年人力成本达到84万元，仅仅减少1个全职员工将直接节约8%的开支。而标普500中的公司，不论大小，只要2024年Q2业绩陈述/报告中与AI带点关系的公司股价平均至少一次涨近44%。
长期来说，是否交易英伟达取决于投资者对其股性的定位，即周期股还是非周期股，软件相比硬件受周期性影响较小。英伟达GPU受半导体周期性影响非常大，而其软件收入主要来自于与GPU捆绑的软件，以及专业视觉化NVIDIA Omniverse，vWS等，以及数据中心软件产品NVIDIA AI Enterprise，这部分直接收入占比还不够高，所以总体来说英伟达周期性属性还是比较明显的。短期来说，对于风险偏好较低的投资者来说，建议及时止盈获利规避美联储降息窗口带来的不确定性。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：
Christine Li | GO Markets 墨尔本中文部
热门话题
澳洲限制留学生数量了？为什么？首先，留学生澳洲的一个产业，有多重要呢。国际教育是澳大利亚第四大出口产业！2019年，留学生们为澳洲经济贡献了近376亿澳元，平均每个留学生日常花费每年超过2.1万澳币。而且，这个产业还直接或间接支持了 250,000个工作岗位——无论是教育、住宿，还是餐饮和零售行业，都因为留学生的存在而蓬勃发展。截至2020年，澳大利亚共有超过760,000名 国际学生，遍布各类教育机构，包括高等教育、职业教育与培训（VET）、英语语言课程（ELICOS）（每年大概15万学生创收20亿澳元）、学校教育等。截至2020年，澳大利亚共有超过 760,000名 国际学生，遍布各类教育机构。中国、印度、尼泊尔、越南和马来西亚是留学生的主要来源地。不同国家的学生汇聚于此，不仅促进了文化交流，还为澳洲带来了多元化的社会氛围。澳洲的高等教育在全球享有盛誉。比如，2021年QS世界大学排名中，澳洲有7所大学进入全球前100。留学生们为这些世界一流学府支付的学费，总额超过了85亿澳元。这样的收入，不仅支撑了大学的运行，也为他们提供了更多教育资源。2020年，超过46,000名国际毕业生通过485类毕业生临时签证留在澳洲工作，积累了宝贵的经验。而且，约20%的国际学生在毕业后获得了永久居留权，为澳洲劳动力市场注入了新鲜血液。
虽然，但是。嗯，虽然教育产业很重要，但是从明年起，在澳大利亚大学和职业培训机构开始学习的国际学生数量将受到限制。根据澳洲政府提出的行业改革方案，留学生数量每年上限为 270,000，且每个机构将分别设定限制。教育部长Jason Clare表示，到 2025 年，公立大学的新生人数将限制在145,000人左右，职业院校的新生人数将限制在95,000人左右。过去每年留学生人数如下：2018年，约 288,300 名新国际学生进入澳大利亚各级教育机构。2019年约 300,000 名新国际学生。所以，目前的数据肯定是要下降的。另外，中国留学生占总国际学生的 38%，印度学生占 16%。
为什么限制留学生数量呢？教育部表示：“如今，我们大学的国际学生人数比疫情前增加了约10％，私立职业培训机构的国际学生人数增加了约50％。”最关键的是，“学生们回来了，但骗子也回来了——人们想利用这个行业赚快钱。”很经典的一句话，叫做“中国人不骗中国人”，但是在海外，其实很多刚来的学生，经常因为信息不对称的原因，受到各类损失，而目前有了新媒体和社交媒体之后，这类信息不对称导致的损失被弥补了。但是，骗子或不真诚的人，也会玩转这些新工具，并且根据数据，私立的VET和野鸡学校国际学生增加50%，不乏混迹其中黑在澳洲混签证的情况，对后来的学生或移民造成了很多困扰。所以，限制人数的最关键几点：1. 完善教学系统，主要限制的是因为VET类型或私立学校，也就是野鸡学校太过猖獗，尤其是涉及到学生签和学生最终的教育问题。2. 提升国际留学生门槛，也就相当于提升进入澳洲的留学生综合素质。很多学生不讲英文，或没有为澳洲本土社区做积极地贡献，也并没有促进多元文化交流。3. 政府宣布将限制国际学生人数，作为一项关键机制，将净移民人数从2023年的 520,000人减半至24-25年的260,000人。国际学生已经成为工党削减移民计划的核心。4. 降低因为过多留学生导致的房租市场失衡，劳动市场等各类问题。
对于资本市场的影响，主要在：教育板块直接冲击: 教育行业的上市公司，如提供国际教育服务的大学和教育集团，可能会受到直接冲击。例如，像 IDP Education（ASX: IEL）这样的公司，依赖国际学生招生作为主要收入来源。新生人数上限可能导致这些公司的收入增长放缓，进而影响其股价表现。市场情绪: 市场对教育板块的信心可能会受到影响，因为投资者可能担心这一政策的长期影响，尤其是对于那些严重依赖国际学生收入的教育机构。
房地产市场租赁市场租房需求的下降: 国际学生是澳大利亚租赁市场的重要群体，尤其是在大学校园附近和市中心区域。新生人数的减少可能导致租房需求的下降，特别是对于那些专门针对学生市场的物业。租金价格可能因此受到压制，投资回报率也可能下降。学生公寓市场的压力: 依赖国际学生的学生公寓市场可能面临更大的压力。投资这些物业的房地产信托基金（REITs），如 Vocus Student Living 等，可能会受到直接影响。房地产开发开发项目放缓: 对于正在规划或建设中的学生公寓或与国际学生相关的房地产开发项目，这一政策可能导致开发商重新评估市场需求，并可能推迟或取消部分项目。这将影响房地产开发公司如 Lendlease（ASX: LLC）等的业务增长。Crown Resorts (ASX: CWN): 虽然主要业务是赌场，但Crown的高端住宿和服务对国际学生市场也有一定依赖，特别是在主要城市。国际学生人数的减少可能间接影响该公司部分业务的收入。当然，整体的影响还是有限的，因为留学生限制人数的实际数量，并不是从30万掉到了15万，而是少了10%，相当于比疫情后最夸张的2023年数据少了10%，达到一个平衡状态，我认为这个数字是很合理的，也符合目前澳洲整体的经济和教育结构。免责声明：GO Markets 分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：
Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管