市场回顾

• 澳股上涨0.7%. 中国股市上涨0.6%.
• 欧洲轻微上涨。美股继续保持强劲。
• 世界主要国家继续刺激经济，引发物价上涨。
• 这个万物涨价的时代，不论是买国债，股票，黄金，地产都可以，但是就是不能存现金。

热门话题

大家都知道去年疫情严重时澳元和美元的价格只有0.59, 之后随着澳洲率先控制疫情加上中国大力推动基建来刺激经济，使得澳元和美元的汇率最高时恢复到了0.8。上下变化几乎达到了30%。对于一个国家的货币来说，半年时间上涨30%，这只有极端事件下才会发生，而这疫情，恰恰就是百年一遇的全球灾难。

目前澳元和美元的汇率从0.8的高位稍稍回落，但是依然有0.76，这个价格范围也在澳洲央行给出的澳元合理范围应该和美元保持在0.7 – 0.75 范围之上。然而即便超过了央行的指导价，但是澳洲最大的商业银行联邦银行CBA的国际经济部依然做出了澳元被低估的判断。根据他们的估计，澳元和美元在未来6个月很有可能会再次超越0.8, 并且他们给了一个非常旷阔的区间，说到他们判断澳元和美元的汇率会在0.75 – 0.9之间来回，中间值大约就是0.83. 这明显就是胆小，不敢负责。居然能给出一个这么大的范围。你咋不说澳元和美元肯定在0和1之间呢。要真有水平，就应该给出更小的范围。当然，银行分析很多时候就是瞎扯，和某些媒体喜欢做标题党一样，去年疫情时说澳洲房价要跌30%，今年年初又改口说要上涨20%。真是二皮脸啊。大话随口就来，吹牛不交税。银行很多时候发布的报告简直就是靠蒙，说个夸张的价格，万一蒙对了就是股神，蒙不对也没人记得住。当然，就算蒙，也要写足够的理由。联邦银行给出看涨澳元的理由主要来自于两方面：1. 澳洲全球领先的疫情控制。2. 美国准备大搞基建，需要更多的原材料，主要就是铁矿石。而由于巴西的疫情年底之前没戏，所以全球铁矿石就靠澳洲了。当然了，一般银行的分析师肯定说了好也要说坏，他们也说到，美国国债收益率很高，所以很多不要风险的人把很多的钱换成美元去投资美债了，这也导致了美元的上涨。加上美国疫情控制正在越来越好，所以未来美元也会上涨。

这不是废话么，一边说澳元要上涨，一边说美元也会上涨，所以最后万一价格不对，不要怪我，大概就是这个意思。我来说几句，首先，美国比澳洲强大太多，所以长期来看，美元必定强于澳元。所以澳元越接近美元的价值，未来下跌的空间就会越大。因此如果哪天我们看到澳元和美元又到了1：1的时候，啥也不用想，看跌就成了。因为澳洲国力不可能超过美国。但是这等于澳元不能在短期内，特殊时期内强于美元。比如当美国经济危机的时候，比如当铁矿石到天价，而美国经济又特别虚弱的时候，澳元有可能会接近美元的价值，甚至短时间超过。但是从长期来看，我还是那句话，澳元和美元越接近1，那澳元下跌的空间越大。刚才说到美国为了振奋疫情之后的经济，也和中国一样大搞基建。其实大家回忆一下，每次经济危机或者社会危机之后，各国政府采用最普遍的办法就是大搞基建。为啥？因为让社会尽快稳定最好的办法就是让更多的人能有工作，而大型基建就是最快创建工作岗位的办法。随便一个桥梁，地铁，机场项目都可以创造几千上万的职位。这钱要是投在火箭，军事或者其他高精尖的地方，可能钱怎么花完的都不知道。更不要说几千个工作岗位了。所以基础建设看上去很土，但是却是最有效能让人工作，让社会稳定，让信心恢复的办法。这事本来美国就非常精通，虽然西方经济学是欧洲创立，但是却是在美国发扬光大，所以不论是二战，石油危机，还是IT泡沫破灭，美国应对历次危机的做法都使用到了基建，所以这次也不例外。既然用了基建，那自然整个建筑行业的产业链上下游都会收益。从最开始的原材料，到运输，仓储，到后面的施工，维护，服务等等。根据经济原理统计，在基础设施上政府投入的每一块钱，在绕了一圈之后，可以产生3-7倍的经济效益。这钱经过每一个环节，大家都有了面包，都有了收入，经济也自然会好起来。

说了这么多，简单来说，就是澳元太幸运了，先是中国刺激需要原材料，现在是美国刺激也需要原材料。这简直就是，白捡啊。近期我们会继续推出美国基建收益板块和行业分析，欢迎大家咨询我们。

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英国富时100指数：这个产品我说了很多次了，就不再重复了，总之一句话，阿狗阿猫都已经涨回去了，西方发达国家里就英国最差，这不会太久的。毕竟现在英国疫苗接种率是西方7国里最高的，一旦率先恢复，那股票反弹也会很快赶上其他几个的。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418

It has been an eventful week over in the United States this week. Some of the major companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla announced their latest earnings. The Federal Reserve kept their interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.

We also saw the US GDP expand by 4% in Q4 of 2020. However, these were not the most talked-about events this week. Major hedge-funds on Wall Street were left with huge losses after it bet against a struggling American gaming company GameStop by short-selling its shares.

What is short-selling? Short-selling is when an investor speculates that a stock or security will fall in price in the future. The investor borrows the stock or security from a broker and immediately sells it with the hope of buying it back at a lower price.

Gains from short selling are limited as a stock can only go to 0. The losses do not have a cap as there is no limit as to how high a stock’s price may jump. What happened?

The ''short'' bet did not pay off for the big players on Wall Street after amateur traders rallied together on social media sites to take on the hedge-funds and pump the price of gaming retailer GameStop to new levels. The share price of the GameStop has surged by over 1,550% this year alone after trading at $17 at the beginning of January. The stock ended the trading day at the $193 level on Thursday, rising up to the $261 level in post-market hours.

The White House said it was ''monitoring'' the latest price surge in GameStop and other stocks. Hedge-funds and others that bet against GameStop have collectively lost more than $5bn, according to data analytics company S3. Source: TradingView It is an interesting time on Wall Street and it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the future developments moving forward.

One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday at 14:00 PM London time. It will be the first meeting since the new United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The bank has increased its interest rates four times since July of last year, so will there be another hike? Why Is The Announcement Important? A bank interest rate is a rate at which a countries central bank lends money to local banks.

The interest rate is charged by nations central or federal bank on loans advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 2% (currently 2.8%), and the interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target. Therefore, the Bank of Canada’s and other central bank rate decisions can have a significant impact on the financial markets.

Expectations In a recent speech, Stephen Poloz, the Governor of Bank of Canada said he continues to believe gradually increasing interest rates is the right approach. According to the latest forecasts, it is highly anticipated that the Bank of Canada will raise its interest rates in the upcoming meeting from 1.5% to 1.75%, potentially a fifth rate hike since July 2017. "We expect the Bank to hike this month, in addition to hiking four more times in 2019, as the BoC’s measure of core inflation touched 2.0% for the first time since 2012 in August and is facing increased capacity constraints," said Daniel Hui, an analyst at J.P. Morgan. "This [October] hike was already well anticipated by markets even before the USMCA breakthrough (80% priced before, 90%+ priced now), so it is the forward-looking rhetoric that might imply future pace and terminal rate that is more important for markets to monitor," says Hui.

All eyes will be on the decision on Wednesday. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper

The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for April. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 263,000 the U.S.

Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, beating the forecast of 190,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. Professional and business services added 76,000 Construction added 33,000 Employment in health grew by 27,000 Social assistance added 26,000 The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 1969 to 3.6% beating the forecast of 3.8%.

The number of unemployed persons decreased by 387,000 to 5.8 million. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at 3.2%, below the forecast of 3.3%. USDCAD – Hourly USDJPY – Hourly The next US jobs report is on 7th June.

This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper,

The electric vehicle industry has had a tough few weeks with the global chip and battery shortages affecting electric vehicle manufacturers around the world. Despite that, Tesla delivered 184,800 vehicles in Q1 of 2021, exceeding the number of vehicles produced (180,338). The deliveries consisted of 182,780 Model 3 and Model Y.

The rest (2,020) were made up by Model S. The latest figures mark a 109% improvement from Q1 in 2020 when the company delivered 88,400 vehicles. The latest figures also put the company on track to beat last year’s deliveries of 499,500, which was just shy of Elon Musk’s target of 500,000. ''Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q1 earnings.

Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles'' – statement read on the company’s website following the latest delivery numbers.

Tesla – Monthly Chart Source: TradingView With the Tesla reporting strong numbers for Q1, the price target was also increased by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Ives lifted his price target on the stock to $1,000 a share from $950, with a "bull case" level of $1,300. "In our opinion, the first quarter delivery numbers released on Friday was a paradigm changer and shows that the pent-up demand globally for Tesla's Model 3/Y is hitting its next stage of growth as part of a global green tidal wave underway," Ives said. "With a green tidal wave kicked off by Biden last week in the US, and global EV demand skyrocketing going after a $5 trillion (total addressable market) over the next decade, we believe these delivery numbers are a paradigm and sentiment shifter for the space going forward." You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.

Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

805,734,252 – that’s how many doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been given globally so far as of the 12 th April (from 185 locations), according to Our World in Data. Israel, Bahrain and Chile are leading the way with 54.7%, 24.7% and 24.6% of the population fully vaccinated. With more and more people getting the jab across the world, the chance of side effects becomes more likely.

We have already seen the AstraZeneca vaccine being suspended for use for in few countries. Today, it was announced that the US agencies are calling to pause the Johnson & Johnson vaccine rollout after reports of extremely rare blood clot cases. Following the FDA and CDC advice, all federal sites in the US have stopped using the vaccine until further investigation.

European Union and South Africa have also confirmed that they will temporally stop the rollout of the Johnson & Johnson jab. The share price of Johnson & Johnson was down by around 1.34% following the latest news on their vaccine, trading at $159.48 per share the close. The stock is up by 1.57% year-to-date.

Johnson & Johnson - YTD Chart Source: TradingView You can trade Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.