市场资讯及洞察

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) announced third quarter fiscal 2023 before the opening bell in the US on Friday. World’s largest consumer goods company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates for the quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 101,000 (2021) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S.
Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) The results The company reported revenue of $20.1 billion vs. $19.28 billion expected. EPS reported at $1.37 per share vs. analyst estimate of $1.323 per share.
CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 in what continues to be a very difficult cost and operating environment,'' Jon Moeller, CEO of Procter & Gamble said about the latest results in a press release. ''Our team’s strong execution of our strategies and our progress through three quarters enable us to raise our fiscal year outlook for sales growth and cash return to shareowners and maintain our guidance range for EPS growth despite continued cost and foreign exchange headwinds. We remain committed to our integrated strategies of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization structure. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum, and we’re confident they remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation going forward,'' he concluded.
The latest results had a positive impact on the stock on Friday. Share price was up by around 3%, trading at around $156.44 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +6.58% 3 months: +9.38% Year-to-date: +3.18% 1 year: -3.02% Procter & Gamble price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $147 Berenberg Bank: $141 Evercore ISI: $160 Wells Fargo: $162 CFRA: $152 Procter & Gamble Company is the 20 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $369.12 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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Natural Gas price action has had an amazing two years, with the usually pretty boring commodity showing extreme volatility pushing it to all time highs before a dramatic collapse seeing it back where it started in 2020. Like all the energy complex, Oil being a good example, the start of the Covid panic saw wild price fluctuations as traders came to terms with lockdowns and the related slowdowns, followed by unprecedented Central Bank stimulus. But the real push higher in Natural Gas came at the start of the war in Ukraine and the loss of Russian Gas for European suppliers, with fears of a cold winter with a much constrained supply of gas seeing the price spike to all-time highs.
But instead of a long cold gas starved winter the northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures which meant the gas supply crunch wasn’t as dire as feared which sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling to pre covid levels from a record all-time high. With Natural gas back to historical support levels there is a technical and fundamental case for a move higher in the near future. From a technical perspective, on a daily chart we can see that Natural Gas has found strong support since February around the 2.09 level, an historic level it found support at before the pandemic as well, we can also wee a rounding bottom pattern forming on a daily chart, this is considered one of the most reliable chart patterns in technical analysis.
According to a recent interview with Bloomberg by Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co which is the worlds largest buyer of LNG, he is expecting a price spike again in natural gas this year due to Chinese re-opening demand, unusually war Northern Hemisphere weather increasing energy demand for cooling purposes and increased import capacity in Europe and China. Certainly, a market worth watching going forward!


US technology giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) released the latest financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, after the market closed in the US on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: April 4, 1975 Headquarters: Washington, United States Number of employees: 221,000 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Satya Nadella (executive chairman and CEO), Brad Smith (vice chairman and president), Bill Gates (technical adviser) The results Microsoft reported revenue that beat analyst estimates at $52.857 billion (up by 7% year-over-year) vs. $51.019 billion. Earnings per share also topped expectations at $2.45 per share (up by 10% year-over-year) vs. $2.239 per share estimate.
Company commentary Satya Nadella, chairman and CEO of Microsoft commented on the rise of AI and highlighted company’s focus on the software: ''The world's most advanced AI models are coming together with the world's most universal user interface - natural language - to create a new era of computing.'' ''Across the Microsoft Cloud, we are the platform of choice to help customers get the most value out of their digital spend and innovate for this next generation of AI.'' Amy Hood, executive vice president and CFO highlighted Microsoft Cloud’s revenue for the quarter which increased year-over-year: ''Focused execution by our sales teams and partners in this dynamic environment resulted in Microsoft Cloud revenue of $28.5 billion, up 22% (up 25% in constant currency) year-over-year.'' Share of Microsoft were down by -2.25% on Tuesday at $275.33 before the results were announced. The stock rose by around +4% in the after-hours trading as results beat estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +0.07% 3 months: +13.79% Year-to-date: +14.84% 1 year: +1.92% Microsoft price targets Bank of America: $320 Citigroup: $332 Jefferies: $325 Goldman Sachs: $325 Cowen & Co.: $300 Microsoft Corporation is the 3 rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $2.050 trillion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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US food giant The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) reported Q1 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Wednesday. The company topped both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Company overview • Founded: July 2, 2015 • Headquarters: Chicago, Illinois and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States • Number of employees: 37,000 (2022) • Industry: Food • Key people: Alex Behring (Chairman), John Cahill (Vice chairman), Miguel Patricio (CEO), Paulo Basilio (CFO) The results Kraft Heinz reported revenue of $6.489 billion vs. $6.394 billion expected.
Revenues were up by 7.3% year-over-year. EPS reported at $0.68 per share (up by 7.9% year-over-year) vs. estimate of $0.597 per share. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share.
CEO commentary "We delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2023, with net sales growth across both our North America and International zones that continues to be fueled by Foodservice, Emerging Markets, and U.S. Retail GROW platforms," Kraft Heinz CEO, Miguel Patricio said in a press release. "I am very proud of the entire Kraft Heinz team as we continue to deliver on what we can control by unlocking efficiencies and reinvesting in our brands and capabilities. Our team's continued focus on executing against the strategy is coming to fruition, but it's not time to declare victory just yet.
We remain committed to advancing our business transformation, and we are confident we have the right strategy in place to win with customers and consumers, and to deliver profitable growth and create value for our stockholders," Patricio concluded. The latest results had a positive impact on the stock. Shares were up by over +4% at $40.95 per share.
Stock performance 1 month: +5.28% 3 months: +1.33% Year-to-date: +0.91% 1 year: -5.17% Kraft Heinz price targets JP Morgan: $44 Mizuho Securities: $50 Berenberg Bank: $39 BNP Paribas: $39 Goldman Sachs: $43 The Kraft Heinz Company is the 318 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $50.46 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Kraft Heinz Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, TipRanks, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Macrotrends


The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y was released at 6.3%, lower than the market forecast of 6.5% and from the previous data of 6.8%. With inflation growth on a clear downtrend following its peak of 8.4% in January 2023, this is likely to reduce the need for further rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian cash rate is currently at 3.60% with the RBA anticipated to keep with the previous decision of holding rates steady next Tuesday (2nd May).
While the RBA has previously indicated that some further tightening may be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target, the decision to keep interest rates at 3.60% or comments regarding a pivot in future decisions could lead to further weakening in the AUDUSD. Following the release of the CPI y/y data, the AUDUSD traded lower, breaking out of the channel, and signaling a possible continuation of the downtrend since February 2023. Additionally, with the Ichimoku cloud acting as a resistance and indicating further downside potential, the AUDUSD could trade down to retest the support level of 0.6565.
Beyond the immediate support level, the next key support level is the previous swing low at the 0.64 price area. This move lower could be driven by a further recovery in strength on the DXY and if the RBA decides to hold interest rates at 3.60%.


The Bank of England (BoE) is due to release its interest rate decision today, with markets expecting a 12th consecutive hike to take interest rates to 4.50%. There has been increasing speculation that the BoE is reaching its terminal rates and could follow the lead of the US FOMC and the ECB in signaling a slowdown or pause on further rate hikes following the decision today. However, inflation in the UK is yet to signal a sustained slowdown, with the recent March Consumer Price Index (CPI) still above 10%.
The UK economy has been performing better than expected this year, which has seen the GBPUSD rise steadily to trade just below the key resistance area of 1.27, which was last tested in May 2022. Any indication that the BoE could potentially pause on monetary tightening or dissent in the voting (expected 7-0-2) on the rate hike could see the GBPUSD come under renewed downward pressure. A bearish divergence (prices rallying to new highs while the oscillator retraces from a peak) has formed at the resistance level and could signal the potential for a reversal to the downside.
This reversal could be confirmed if the GBPUSD continues to trade lower past the 1.2550 price level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the short term. The downside on the GBPUSD could be significant, with the next key support level at 1.2350 which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term.
