Bank of England Headline February inflation in the UK came at a hotter than expected 10.4%, well above the consensus of a drop to 9.9% and indicating that Januarys dip to 10.1% seems to have been temporary. Unwelcome news for the BoE who have a rate meeting today, before this figure the decision seemed to be on a knife edge, with the markets pricing in a 50-50 chance of a 25bp hike or a hold, those odds have since blown out to make a hike pretty much a done deal with the market pricing in a 90% chance that the BoE will keep the tightening process going. The big change in hike expectations can be seen below, in the Pre CPI vs the Post CPI figures This unsurprisingly saw the GBPUSD rally sharply as the markets repriced the BoE’s actions today, interestingly we can see that the reaction, though a decent move was dwarfed by the volatility seen during and post the FOMC rate decision in this pair.
The UK being a world financial hub means the GBP is especially risk sensitive to financial conditions, whether that is global interest rates, banking stress or threats of global growth slowdowns, the actions of the BoE, while still important have taken a seat to these more macro drivers. With all this in mind the probable 25bp rate hike today will more than likely have a muted first effect on the GBP, the accompanying statement and the voting pattern of the MPC member will be what GBP traders are looking at to get some direction for the session. With the shock of the inflation beat fresh in their minds it’s hard to see the BoE being too dovish but against the current uncertainty in the financial markets I don’t think we’ll see any sustained rally of the GBP after the fact unless there is a real hawkish surprise from the BoE members.
Swiss National Bank Up until recently the SNB meetings have been almost as boring as the Bank of Japan meetings, this has all changed as BoJ the meetings have thrown up surprises and todays SNB against the backdrop of the collapse of Credit Suisse could actually be interesting. The markets are pricing in a 50bp hike from the SNB, despite Swiss banking woes it would be a big surprise if they didn’t go through with this, inflation is rising in Switzerland (jumping unexpectedly to 3.4% last month) and they are a long way behind the curve in respects to other Central Banks with their official rate only sitting at 1%, far behind their peers in Europe and the US. Again the interesting part will be the statement and press conference, where the focus will likely remain on interest rate policy and the banking sector.
CHF may strengthen on the decision but with major support on the USDCHF around the 0.9094 level, any downside on this pair should be limited. The SNB decision is due out at 08:30 GMT with the BoE following at 12:00 GMT
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. 免责声明：文章来自 GO Markets 分析师和参与者，基于他们的独立分析或个人经验。表达的观点、意见或交易风格仅代表作者个人，不代表 GO Markets 立场。建议，（如有），具有“普遍”性，并非基于您的个人目标、财务状况或需求。在根据建议采取行动之前，请考虑该建议（如有）对您的目标、财务状况和需求的适用程度。如果建议与购买特定金融产品有关，您应该在做出任何决定之前了解并考虑该产品的产品披露声明 (PDS) 和金融服务指南 (FSG)。
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
.jpeg)
