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The Fed: Imbal Hasil yang Lebih Tinggi Tetap Menjaga Jalur Pengetatan Tetap Utuh – Nordea
Tim riset Nordea mempertahankan pandangan Federal Reserve tidak berubah, memprakirakan satu kali kenaikan suku bunga lagi tahun ini dan satu lagi pada 2027 karena inflasi AS tetap berada di atas target 2% dan pertumbuhan tetap kuat. Bank tersebut berpendapat bahwa imbal hasil Treasury jangka panjang yang tinggi terutama mencerminkan pertumbuhan PDB nominal yang solid dan permintaan modal yang besar, dan belum terlihat sangat restriktif bagi perekonomian AS.
Jalur The Fed stabil dengan data yang kuat
"Inflasi masih jelas di atas target, dan CPI September menunjukkan inflasi bergerak naik, bukan turun."
"Kebijakan moneter masih belum terlihat cukup restriktif untuk ekonomi dalam kondisi seperti ini."
"Dengan latar belakang itu, imbal hasil jangka panjang di atas 5% tidak terlalu restriktif."
"Kami mempertahankan prakiraan The Fed kami tidak berubah. Kami masih memprakirakan satu kali kenaikan lagi tahun ini dan satu lagi tahun depan, dengan risiko yang cenderung ke atas."
"Secara keseluruhan, pandangan kami tidak berubah. Ekonomi yang kuat dan inflasi di atas target masih menuntut kebijakan yang lebih ketat. Kami memprakirakan satu kali kenaikan lagi tahun ini dan satu lagi tahun depan. Imbal hasil jangka panjang yang lebih tinggi tidak mengubah pandangan itu. Hal tersebut sebagian besar mencerminkan ekonomi yang sama kuatnya yang membuat The Fed terus menaikkan suku bunga."
(Artikel ini dibuat dengan bantuan alat Kecerdasan Buatan dan ditinjau oleh editor. Pelajari lebih lanjut.)
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