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Kanada: Ketahanan yang didorong energi dengan pass-through inti yang terbatas – RBC
Strategis Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Claire Fan dan Abbey Xu memprakirakan Indeks Harga Konsumen umum Kanada akan tetap di 3% tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan September, didukung oleh harga bensin dan minyak pemanas yang lebih tinggi. Mereka melihat inflasi pangan yang melandai dan penurunan IHK inti ke 1,8%, dengan indeks difusi yang menunjukkan tekanan inflasi sejauh ini tetap relatif sempit meskipun ada risiko dari meluasnya harga industri.
Umum stabil, inti diperkirakan melandai
"Kami memprakirakan Indeks Harga Konsumen umum di Kanada akan bertahan di 3% tahun-ke-tahun pada bulan September untuk bulan ketiga berturut-turut."
"Tidak termasuk makanan dan energi, inflasi inti diperkirakan turun tipis ke 1,8% pada bulan September dari 2,1% pada bulan Agustus."
"Kami terus memprakirakan penyaluran inflasi energi yang terbatas ke komponen inti di luar tarif penerbangan, tetapi akan memantau kategori transportasi dengan cermat karena kategori tersebut paling berisiko."
"Indeks difusi IHK kami— sebuah ukuran keluasan tekanan inflasi—sejauh ini belum menunjukkan perluasan cakupan yang bermasalah."
"Namun, indeks difusi yang sama untuk harga produksi industri sudah menunjukkan penyebaran yang mengkhawatirkan, tetapi masih ada jalan panjang sebelum kenaikan harga diteruskan melalui lapisan produksi hingga mencapai harga konsumen di rak-rak toko."
(Artikel ini dibuat dengan bantuan alat Kecerdasan Buatan dan ditinjau oleh editor. Pelajari lebih lanjut.)
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