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Baht Thailand: Pola double-top memberi sinyal potensi pembalikan terhadap Dolar AS – OCBC
Sim Moh Siong dan Christopher Wong dari OCBC melaporkan bahwa Bank of Thailand (BoT) mempertahankan suku bunga di 1% sambil menaikkan prakiraan pertumbuhan dan menandai risiko inflasi dari minyak dan El Niño. Mereka memprakirakan kebijakan akan tetap ditahan dalam jangka pendek, dengan kenaikan kumulatif 50bp pada Semester 1-2027. Pola double-top pada USD/THB mengarah ke support utama di 33,62 dan resistance di dekat 33,85/90.
BoT tetap menahan suku bunga saat pola terbentuk
"USD/THB sedikit melemah dari level tertinggi baru-baru ini semalam. Dalam keputusan kebijakan, BoT mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya tidak berubah di 1%, sejalan dengan pandangan kami. Bank sentral merevisi prakiraan pertumbuhan lebih tinggi untuk 2026 dan 2027, didukung oleh ekspor dan investasi yang lebih kuat terkait siklus AI."
"Kami mempertahankan pandangan jangka pendek yang sedikit hati-hati terhadap THB. Revisi naik terhadap pertumbuhan cukup menggembirakan, sementara BoT tampaknya nyaman mempertahankan kebijakan akomodatif mengingat pemulihan yang tidak merata. Para ekonom kami memprakirakan BoT akan mempertahankan suku bunga kebijakan pada rapat MPC 23 Des, tetapi akan terus memantau nada pernyataan untuk menilai apakah ada pergeseran ke bias yang sedikit lebih hawkish."
"Pandangan kami tetap sejalan dengan keyakinan bahwa BoT akan menormalkan suku bunga kebijakannya, dengan menaikkan kumulatif 50bp pada Semester 1-2027. Untuk saat ini, perkembangan eksternal tetap lebih relevan bagi arah THB. Pullback pada USD dan harga minyak, bersama dengan stabilisasi emas, mungkin menawarkan sedikit kelegaan, meskipun tekanan harga energi yang kembali meningkat tetap menjadi risiko."
"Momentum harian datar sementara RSI melemah. Sebelumnya kami telah menandai pola double-top. Pembalikan bearish double-top akan melihat support terdekat muncul di 33,62 (MA 21 Hari), 33,25/30 (MA 50, 100 Hari). Resistance di level 33,85/90 (doubletop)."
(Artikel ini dibuat dengan bantuan alat Kecerdasan Buatan dan ditinjau oleh editor. Ketahui lebih lanjut.)
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