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Baht Thailand: BoT mempertahankan suku bunga karena risiko penajaman kurva – DBS
Ekonom DBS Group Research Chua Han Teng menganalisis pasar Thailand setelah Bank of Thailand (BoT) mempertahankan suku bunga kebijakannya di 1,00% untuk pertemuan keempat berturut-turut. Ia memprakirakan BoT akan tetap menahan suku bunga hingga 2026, menjaga imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah tenor pendek tetap stabil, sambil memperingatkan bahwa imbal hasil tenor panjang menghadapi risiko penajaman dari energi global, harga pangan, dan spillover dari Treasury AS.
Sikap BoT dan prospek kurva imbal hasil
"Bank of Thailand (BoT) mempertahankan suku bunga kebijakannya di 1,00% untuk keputusan keempat berturut-turut pada 28 Oktober, dengan dorongan yang terbatas untuk penyesuaian apa pun dalam waktu dekat."
"Kami terus memprakirakan BoT akan mempertahankan suku bunga kebijakannya di 1,00% selama sisa 2026, memberikan latar belakang yang stabil bagi imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah tenor pendek."
"Kami melihat risiko penajaman pada kurva imbal hasil Thailand."
"Sementara imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah tenor pendek seharusnya stabil, imbal hasil tenor panjang rentan terhadap tekanan naik dari tantangan eksternal, termasuk dampak lanjutan dari guncangan harga energi dan pangan global, spillover dari imbal hasil Treasury AS yang lebih tinggi dan tetap tinggi, serta lemahnya keuangan publik domestik."
"Baht Thailand, yang telah terdepresiasi ~7% terhadap dolar AS dan berkinerja lebih buruk dibandingkan rekan-rekan regionalnya sepanjang tahun berjalan, kemungkinan besar bukan menjadi perhatian kebijakan utama, mengingat penyangga eksternal yang kuat yang seharusnya membantu memitigasi volatilitas mata uang dan risiko terkait."
(Artikel ini dibuat dengan bantuan alat Kecerdasan Buatan dan ditinjau oleh editor. Pelajari lebih lanjut.)
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