Pasar Asia-Pasifik mulai April dengan fokus pada bagaimana gangguan berkepanjangan di Selat Hormuz mempengaruhi inflasi, arus perdagangan, dan ekspektasi kebijakan. Rencana Lima Tahun ke-15 China mengalihkan perhatian ke kecerdasan buatan dan kemandirian teknologi, dengan efek lanjutan bagi rantai pasokan dan pertumbuhan regional. Jepang dan Australia menghadapi tantangan mengelola inflasi energi impor sambil mengukur seberapa jauh mereka dapat menormalkan kebijakan tanpa menggagalkan permintaan domestik.
Bagi para pedagang, campuran kenaikan harga energi dan perbedaan kebijakan dapat membuat volatilitas tetap tinggi di seluruh indeks dan mata uang regional.
Key watchlist
Top China data point
March exports (14 April)
Top Japan event
BOJ rate decision (27-28 April)
Top Australia event
March quarter CPI (29 April)
Main regional wildcard
Sovereign AI trade restrictions
Most sensitive market
Nikkei 225 / USD/JPY
Key threshold
Brent crude above US$110
China
Anggota parlemen di Beijing telah menyetujui Rencana Lima Tahun ke-15 (2026-2030), menempatkan kecerdasan buatan (AI) dan kemandirian teknologi di pusat agenda nasional. Pemerintah telah menetapkan target pertumbuhan 4,5% hingga 5,0% untuk tahun 2026, yang terendah dalam beberapa dekade, karena memprioritaskan kualitas pertumbuhan daripada kecepatan.
APAC Sections — GO Markets (Webflow embed snippets)
Key dates (AEST)
13
Apr
M2 money supply and new yuan loans
People's Bank of China
Medium
14
Apr
March balance of trade
General Administration of Customs
High
16
Apr
Q1 GDP and March industrial production
National Bureau of Statistics
High
What markets look for
Evidence of technology-driven industrial production growth consistent with Five-Year Plan priorities
March export resilience in the face of shifting global tariff frameworks
Signs of stabilisation in domestic consumer retail sales
Any implementation detail on the "new-type national system" for AI development
Why it matters for the region
China's shift toward high-value manufacturing and AI self-sufficiency could reshape regional supply chains and influence demand for commodities. A stronger-than-expected trade surplus may support broader regional sentiment, although higher energy costs can pressure margins for Chinese exporters and weigh on import demand. The 16 April GDP release carries the most weight as the first quarterly read on whether the 4.5%-5.0% target is tracking.
Jepang
Bank of Japan (BOJ) menghadapi tekanan yang meningkat untuk menormalkan kebijakan karena inflasi yang didorong oleh energi berisiko kebangkitan. Sementara harga konsumen tidak termasuk makanan segar melambat menjadi 1,6% pada bulan Februari, lonjakan harga minyak baru-baru ini dapat mendorong indeks harga konsumen (IHK) kembali menuju target 2% dalam beberapa bulan mendatang.
Key dates (local / AEDT or AEST)
30
Mar
Tokyo CPI (March)
Statistics Bureau of Japan · Lead indicator for national trends (AEDT)
Medium
27–28
Apr
BOJ monetary policy meeting and outlook report
Bank of Japan · Live event for rate hike watch (AEST)
High
What markets look for
BOJ guidance on the timing of potential rate increases
March Tokyo CPI data as a lead indicator for national price trends
Updated inflation forecasts in the quarterly outlook report
Official comments on yen volatility and any reference to intervention thresholds
Why it matters
The BOJ remains a global outlier, with its short-term policy rate held at 0.75% after the March meeting, and any hawkish shift could trigger sharp moves in forex pairs involving the yen. Markets are weighing whether the BOJ can tighten policy while the government simultaneously resumes energy subsidies to shield households from rising oil costs. These competing pressures make the April meeting and outlook report unusually informative.
Australia
Perekonomian Australia tetap dalam keadaan divergensi dua kecepatan, dengan rumah tangga yang lebih tua meningkatkan pengeluaran sementara kelompok yang lebih muda menghadapi tekanan keterjangkauan yang signifikan. Menyusul kenaikan suku bunga Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) menjadi 4.10% pada bulan Maret, pasar sangat fokus pada data inflasi mendatang untuk menilai apakah pengetatan tambahan mungkin diperlukan.
Key dates (AEST)
16
Apr
March unemployment rate
Australian Bureau of Statistics · 11:30 am AEST
Medium
29
Apr
March quarter CPI (Q1)
Australian Bureau of Statistics · 11:30 am AEST
High
30
Apr
March producer price index (PPI)
Australian Bureau of Statistics · 11:30 am AEST
Medium
What markets look for
Whether Q1 underlying inflation remains above the RBA's 2%-3% target band
Labour market resilience in the face of rising borrowing costs
The pass-through of global energy prices into domestic transport and logistics costs
RBA minutes (31 March) for any signal of internal policy disagreement
Why it matters
The 29 April CPI release may be the most consequential domestic data point before the RBA's May meeting. If inflation proves sticky or accelerates due to global energy shocks, the probability of a further rate increase could rise, with implications for both the Australian dollar and volatility across the ASX 200. The PPI reading the following day may also provide early signal on whether producer-level cost pressures are building in the pipeline.
Regional themes
◆
ASEAN demand signals
March trade data from Singapore and Malaysia may indicate whether regional electronics demand is holding up amid global uncertainty.
◆
India growth trajectory
Elevated energy costs could weigh on India's 2026 expansion plans, particularly following the New Delhi AI summit and associated infrastructure commitments.
◆
Commodity sentiment
Iron ore and thermal coal prices remain sensitive to signals from China's industrial policy and the pace at which Five-Year Plan priorities translate into actual demand.
◆
Currency pressure
Energy-importing economies across Asia and Europe may face sustained currency headwinds if Brent crude holds above US$100 for an extended period.
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Pelajari keputusan RBA, pemulihan Tiongkok yang tidak merata, serta sinyal dari Bank of Japan yang membentuk pasar, mata uang, dan risiko regional Asia-Pasifik pada Agustus 2026.