What is a deflationary Cryptocurrency? A Deflationary Cryptocurrency is one that burns, (mints) its supply. This process lessens the number of coins or tokens on the market over a specific period (generally a year), which reduces supply and increases the price.
In general terms, ensuring that there isn’t an oversupply of a currency can be an important monetary tool to reducing inflation. Evidence of quantitative easing and what can happen when there is an oversupply can be seen by the record high inflation seen around the world. The two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are both tipped to become deflationary in the future but for varying reasons Is Bitcoin deflationary?
Bitcoin has a fixed, maximum supply of 21,000,000 BTC that will be fully mined in the year 2140. The current supply of BTC is 19,008,012.00 and 20% of this supply has been lost due to forgotten passwords and forgotten keys. It’s projected that Bitcoin may officially become deflationary once its full supply has been created, as the circulating supply will continue to reduce due to holders’ unintentional losses.
Is Ethereum deflationary? Unlike, Bitcoin, Ethereum does not have a maximum supply. Rather, it has an annual supply cap at 18 million ETH.
For Ethereum to become deflationary, 2 ETH would need to be burned per block; this is because this amount is minted for each block that is mined. As per the historical data, the ETH net issuance will dive lower creating a rally in the ETH price as the circulating supply will be less. A common way to achieve deflation is by burning tokens.
Ethereum does this by minting tokens that are staked or when NFTs are minted. A point worth noting is that cryptocurrencies with a finite supply are deflationary by default. When investors buy and hold the coin, the supply reduces.
Ethereum has temporarily turned deflationary in the last few days. An unknown project by the name of XEN has assisted in the burning of ETH. What is XEN?
XEN is a project created by the “Fair Crypto Foundation,” backed by Jack Levin, one of the first employees at Google working on cloud infrastructure. The ethos aims to empower the individual with a token that starts with a zero supply and has no pre-mint, CEX listings, admin keys, or immutable contracts. XEN, which launched on Oct. 8, can be claimed, minted, or staked and is based on the first principles of cryptocurrency: self-custody, transparency, trust through consensus, and permissionless value exchange without counterparty risk.
XEN can only be traded on Uniswap, where there is very little liquidity. Time will tell if the latest hot cake in crypto turns into just another swindle. Key Takeaways ETH has turned deflationary over the past 24 hours.
High gas consumption to mint tokens for the new project XEN Crypto is the primary cause of the ETH supply drop. ETH's supply has dropped on several occasions since Ethereum completed "the Merge" in September. Are you keen to venture into trading Cryptocurrency pairs, FX, stocks or commodities?
If so, you can do so by opening an MetaTrader trading CFD account with GO Markets here or call our Melbourne based office on 03 8566 7680 to discuss your trading goals with our account managers to get started. Sources: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/, https://xcoins.com/, https://coingape.com/, https://cryptopotato.com/, https://cryptoslate.com/
By
GO Markets
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here. Any references to Australian or international shares, sectors, indices, ETFs, crypto-related stocks or other instruments are provided for market commentary and watchlist purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any financial product or adopt any investment strategy. International markets may involve additional risks, including currency fluctuations, regulatory differences, market structure differences, reduced liquidity and higher volatility. Company-specific, sector-specific and macroeconomic risks may also affect performance.
Commentary on geopolitical developments, economic data, central bank decisions, earnings, policy changes and other global or financial market events is based on information available at the time of publication and may change without notice. Such events can lead to sudden market moves, price gaps, reduced liquidity, wider spreads and increased volatility, particularly in leveraged products such as CFDs. Forward-looking statements, expectations and scenario analysis are inherently uncertain and should not be relied on as guarantees of future market behaviour or outcomes.
Latin America recorded $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025. Across the region, 57.7 million people now own some form of digital currency rankingslatam, a base that is growing faster than anywhere else in the world
As institutional capital arrives and regulation matures, these are the publicly traded names investors are watching closest.
Digital banking · 127M users across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia
Nubank could be one of the most direct listed proxies for LATAM's fintech and crypto boom. The company integrated cryptocurrency trading directly into its Nu app and partnered with Lightspark to embed the Bitcoin Lightning Network for faster and more cost-effective Bitcoin transactions.
In Q3 2025, revenue jumped 42% year-on-year to $4.17 billion, customer deposits rose 37% to $38.8 billion, and gross profit was up 35% to $1.81 billion.
The stock has returned roughly 36% over the past year and tripled the S&P 500's returns over the last three years. The company dominates Brazil, with over 60% of the adult population using Nubank.
Nu Holdings also recently secured conditional approval to launch Nubank N.A., a US national digital bank.However, the announcement triggered a pullback, with investors cautious about capital deployment timelines and expansion costs.
UBS has lowered its price target to $17.20, citing some market caution despite positive operational shifts.
What to watch
Credit quality trends in Brazil and Mexico.
Pace of USDC adoption via Nubank rewards.
US bank charter timeline and early cost disclosures.
2. MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI)
E-Commerce/Fintech · 18 countries across Latin America
MercadoLibre is not a pure crypto play, but Mercado Pago (its fintech arm) has become one of the most important financial rails in LATAM. The company holds around 570 BTC on its balance sheet as a hedge against regional inflation, and has issued its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, Meli Dólar.
Full year 2025 net revenue from Mercado Pago reached $12.6 billion, up 46% year-on-year, while total payment volume hit $278 billion, up 41%. Fintech monthly active users have grown close to 30% for ten consecutive quarters, and the credit portfolio nearly doubled to $12.5 billion year-on-year.
The catch for MercadoLibre is profitability. Overall margin compression of 5–6% is attributed to persistent investments in free shipping, credit card expansion, first-party commerce, and cross-border trade.
The stock has declined around 14.5% over the past six months, with the market repricing the stock around what management has framed as a deliberate investment phase heading into 2026.
The longer-term case remains compelling. Mercado Pago has introduced crypto-asset management and insurance products across its core markets, positioning it less as an e-commerce company and more as a full-scale digital bank with crypto infrastructure built in.
What to watch
Mercado Pago loan loss trends and credit portfolio quality.
Stablecoin integration and crypto volume through its payment network.
Whether the Argentina credit card launch can reach profitability.
Fintech/Bitcoin treasury · Brazil's first listed Bitcoin treasury company
Méliuz is the most direct equity expression of the corporate Bitcoin treasury trend in LATAM. In early 2025, Méliuz became the first publicly traded company in Latin America to formally adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, receiving shareholder approval to allocate cash reserves toward Bitcoin accumulation.
Rather than issuing cheap dollar-denominated debt to buy BTC, Méliuz uses share issuance and operational cash flow. The company also sells cash-secured put options on Bitcoin to generate yield, a playbook borrowed from Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, keeping 80% of BTC holdings in cold storage
CASH3 essentially acts as a leveraged vehicle for BTC exposure, capturing upside intensely in bull cycles, but generating greater volatility on the way down, especially where debt is involved.
The stock surged approximately 170% in May 2025 following the announcement of the Bitcoin strategy.However, it has since pulled back to its April 2025 levels, broadly tracking Bitcoin's price action and highlighting the stock's volatility.
Pure-play Bitcoin treasury · LATAM's largest corporate Bitcoin holder
Where Méliuz is a fintech business that also holds Bitcoin, OranjeBTC is the opposite: a company whose entire purpose is Bitcoin accumulation.
The company listed on B3 in October 2025 through a reverse merger with education firm Intergraus, marking Brazil's first public debut of a firm whose business model centres entirely on Bitcoin accumulation.
OranjeBTC currently holds over 3,650 BTC and raised nearly $385 million in Bitcoin, with backing from notable investors including the Winklevoss brothers, Adam Back, FalconX, and Ricardo Salinas.
Its $210 million financing round was led by Itaú BBA, the investment arm of Brazil's largest bank, in a significant vote of institutional confidence.
In 2026, OBTC3 has fallen around 32% year-to-date, making it the hardest-hit of the two Brazilian Bitcoin treasury stocks.The stock hit an all-time high of 29.00 BRL on its listing day (October 7, 2025) and an all-time low of 6.06 BRL in February 2026.
It currently trades around 7.06 BRL, a steep discount to its debut, but one that closely mirrors Bitcoin's own pullback from peak levels.
OranjeBTC is the most volatile name on this list and should be treated as a high-beta Bitcoin vehicle. Liquidity is thinner than established names.
What to watch
Bitcoin per share trajectory.
Any capital raises or new BTC purchases.
Potential international listing ambitions.
How the market-value net asset value (mNAV) discount/premium evolves relative to Bitcoin's price.
5. Hashdex — HASH11 (B3: HASH11)
Crypto Asset Management · Brazil's leading crypto ETF issuer
Hashdex offers a different kind of exposure to crypto. Rather than a single company's balance sheet or business strategy, HASH11 is a diversified basket of crypto assets wrapped in the familiarity of a regulated Brazilian ETF structure.
Brazil hosts 22 ETFs offering full or partial exposure to crypto assets, with Hashdex funds attracting 180,000 investors and daily transaction volumes averaging R$50 million.
Hashdex launched the world's first spot XRP ETF (XRPH11) on Brazil's B3 in April 2025, tracking the Nasdaq XRP Reference Price Index and allocating at least 95% of net assets to XRP.
The company also operates single-asset ETFs for Bitcoin (BITH11), Ethereum (ETHE11) and Solana (SOLH11), alongside its flagship HASH11 multi-asset index fund.
In mid-2025, Hashdex launched a hybrid Bitcoin/Gold ETF (GBTC11) that dynamically adjusts allocations between the two assets.
For investors who want diversified crypto market exposure rather than single-asset risk, HASH11 is the most accessible on-ramp through Brazil's regulated equity infrastructure.
However, as a multi-asset crypto index, HASH11 is still subject to the broad performance of digital asset markets. And unlike the equity names on this list, there is no operating business creating independent value.
What to watch
Crypto market sentiment broadly.
Potential expansion of Hashdex products into the US market.
AUM growth as institutional adoption accelerates in Brazil.
Relative performance of HASH11 vs single-asset alternatives.
Institutional infrastructure is still in early innings — Deutsche Börse's Crypto Finance Group entered LATAM in early 2026, and local exchanges have opened over 200 BRL-denominated trading pairs since 2024. The pace of that buildout will set the tone for all five names.
Regulatory progress in Brazil, Mexico, and Chile is the key enabler for the next wave of capital. Any setbacks would hit the higher-beta names like OBTC3 and CASH3 hardest.
Stablecoin volume is the region's most reliable real-time signal. Despite a global slowdown in early 2025, LATAM still recorded $16.2 billion in trading volume between January and May, up 42% year-on-year. Watch whether that momentum holds — a reacceleration lifts all five; a reversal pressures them equally.
Latin America (LATAM) saw over $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025, a 60% year-on-year surge that made the region responsible for roughly 10% of global crypto activity.
In 2026, institutional players are starting to take the region seriously, regulation is crystallising, and the structural drivers from 2025 show no sign of fading. But the region is not a single story, and 2026 will test whether the current momentum is built on solid fundamentals or speculative optimism.
Quick facts
LATAM monthly active crypto users grew 18% year-on-year (YoY), three times faster than the US.
Argentina reached 12% monthly active user penetration, accounting for over a quarter of the region's crypto activity.
Over 90% of Brazilian crypto flows are now stablecoin-related.
Three LATAM countries rank in the global top 20: Brazil (5th), Venezuela (18th), Argentina (20th).
Peru's crypto app downloads grew 50% in 2025, with 2.9 million downloads.
From survival tool to financial infrastructure
Latin America did not embrace cryptocurrency because of speculation. It embraced it because traditional financial systems repeatedly failed ordinary people. Over the past 15 years, average annual inflation across the region's five largest economies ran at 13%, compared to just 2.3% in the US over the same period.
In Venezuela, it reached 65,000% in a single year. In Argentina, it exceeded 220% in 2024. For millions of people, holding savings in local currency was a slow act of self-destruction. Stablecoins became the natural response. Digital assets pegged to the US dollar offered a reliable store of value, borderless transferability, and access without a bank account.
Unlike in the West, where crypto is seen more as a speculative instrument, in LATAM it has become a necessary financial tool. However, adoption drivers are not entirely uniform across the region. Brazil and Mexico are institutional stories, driven by regulated market participation and established financial players.
Argentina and Venezuela remain store-of-value plays, with crypto serving as a direct hedge against fiat collapse. And Peru and Colombia are more yield-seeking markets, where crypto offers returns that traditional savings accounts cannot match.
How fast is LATAM adopting crypto?
LATAM’s on-chain crypto volume rose 60% year-on-year in 2025. The region has recorded nearly $1.5 trillion in cumulative volume since mid-2022, peaking at a record $87.7 billion in a single month in December 2024.
Monthly active crypto users across LATAM also grew 18% in 2025, three times faster than the US.
Stablecoins are the primary vehicle driving this adoption. Of the $730 billion received in 2025, $324 billion moved through stablecoin transactions, an 89% year-on-year surge. In Brazil, over 90% of all crypto flows are stablecoin-related, and in Argentina, stablecoins account for over 60% of activity.
Looking ahead, the Latin America cryptocurrency market is forecast to reach $442.6 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual rate of 10.93% from 2025, according to IMARC Group.
For traders, the speed of adoption matters less as a headline than what is driving it: a region of 650 million people building parallel financial infrastructure in real time, with stablecoins as the foundation.
LATAM Crypto — By The Numbers
LATAM crypto by the numbers
Total on-chain volume
$730B
Total on-chain crypto volume received across LATAM in 2025 (~10% of global total)
+60% year-on-year
Stablecoin transaction volume
$324B
LATAM stablecoin transaction volume in 2025, reflecting surging demand for dollar-pegged assets
+89% year-on-year
Brazil's share of LATAM volume
~33%
Of all LATAM on-chain volume received by Brazil in 2025, making it the region's dominant crypto market
~250% annual growth
Annual remittance market
$142B
Annual remittance flows across Latin America, with an increasingly large share now settled in stablecoins
Stablecoin-settled
The institutional turn
For most of LATAM’s crypto history, adoption was bottom-up. Unbanked or underbanked retail users drove volumes through local exchanges. That picture is now changing at the top end of the market.
In February 2026, Crypto Finance Group, part of the leading global exchange operator Deutsche Börse Group, announced its expansion into Latin America, targeting banks, asset managers, and financial intermediaries seeking institutional-grade custody and trading infrastructure.
Traditional banks and fintechs are following suit. Nubank now rewards customers for holding USDC. Brazil's B3 exchange approved the world's first spot XRP and SOL ETFs, ahead of the US, in 2025. Centralised exchanges, including Mercado Bitcoin, NovaDAX, and Binance, have collectively listed over 200 new BRL-denominated trading pairs since early 2024.
In March 2025, Brazilian fintech Meliuz became the first publicly traded company in the country to launch a Bitcoin accumulation strategy, now holding 320 BTC.
“Crypto adoption in LatAm is already global-scale. What the market needs now is institutional-grade governance, and that’s exactly why we’re here,” — Stijn Vander Straeten, CEO of Crypto Finance Group
Crypto remittance use case
Latin America receives hundreds of billions of dollars annually from workers abroad, making remittances one of the most concrete and measurable crypto use cases in the region. Traditional transfer services charge an average of 6.2% per transaction. On a US$300 transfer, that is roughly US$20 in fees.
Blockchain-based infrastructure more broadly offers dramatic fee reductions. Bitcoin brings costs to around US$3.12 per US$100 transferred. While cheaper alternatives like XRP or Ethereum layer-2 infrastructure can reduce that to less than US$0.01.
For a migrant worker sending US$1,500 home to Peru, switching from a legacy bank saves more than the average Peruvian weekly wage in fees alone.
LATAM’s crypto regulatory environment
The variable that will most determine whether LATAM lives up to its 2026 potential is crypto regulation. And here, the picture is genuinely mixed.
Brazil leads the region with its Virtual Assets Law, which covers asset segregation, VASP licensing, AML/KYC requirements, and capital standards. It also implemented the Travel Rule for domestic VASP transfers, which came into force in February 2026. However, some more controversial proposals, including a US$100,000 cap on cross-border stablecoin transactions and a ban on self-custody wallet transfers, remain under active consultation.
Mexico's 2018 Fintech Law remains one of the world's earliest formal recognitions of virtual assets. Chile's 2023 Fintech Law established licences for exchanges, wallets, and stablecoin issuers, formally recognising digital assets as 'digital money.'
Bolivia reversed a decade-long crypto ban in June 2024 by authorising regulated digital asset transactions. Argentina introduced mandatory exchange registration in 2025. And El Salvador continues to expand tokenised economic initiatives despite removing Bitcoin's legal tender status.
Ten countries across the region now have formal crypto frameworks of some kind. But for traders, regulatory divergence remains a live risk, and given Brazil receiving nearly one-third of all LATAM crypto volume, any significant policy reversal there could have outsized consequences.
Brazil's institutional momentum is the most significant structural trend. With $318.8 billion in on-chain volume in 2025, Brazil effectively is the LATAM market.
The outcome of the Brazil stablecoin consultation could have a big influence. A restriction on foreign stablecoins in domestic payments would directly impact the most traded asset class in the region's dominant market.
Argentina is the volatility play. Monthly active user penetration of 12% and 5.4 million crypto app downloads in 2025 signal deep and growing retail engagement.
Colombia is an early-warning market to watch. The peso's 5.3% depreciation in 2025 and deepening fiscal crisis are driving stablecoin inflows in a pattern that mirrors Argentina's trajectory in earlier years. If Colombia's macro situation deteriorates further, crypto adoption could accelerate.
There is also an exchange concentration risk at play. Binance crypto exchange is the primary exchange for over 50% of LATAM crypto users. If the exchange faces any regulatory action, operational disruption, or competitive shock, it could have an outsized market impact.
Bottom line
Latin America's crypto market has entered a new phase. The structural drivers that caused initial crypto-demand in the region have not gone away: inflation, remittances, financial exclusion, and currency instability are all still at play.
What has changed is the layer being built on top of them. Institutional infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, corporate treasury adoption, and global exchange capital flowing into a region that was, until recently, largely self-contained.
Brazil's near-250% volume growth in 2025 and its position receiving nearly one-third of all LATAM crypto are the defining market developments. Its regulatory trajectory, stablecoin policy decisions, and ETF pipeline will effectively set the tone for the region in 2026.
For traders, the headline growth figures are real, but so are the concentration risks, regulatory uncertainties, and country-level divergences that sit beneath them.
For over 110 years, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has operated at a deliberate distance from the White House and Congress.
It is the only federal agency that doesn’t report to any single branch of government in the way most agencies do, and can implement policy without waiting for political approval.
These policies include interest rate decisions, adjusting the money supply, emergency lending to banks, capital reserve requirements for banks, and determining which financial institutions require heightened oversight.
The Fed can act independently on all these critical economic decisions and more.
But why does the US government enable this? And why is it that nearly every major economy has adopted a similar model for their central bank?
The foundation of Fed independence: the panic of 1907
The Fed was established in 1913 following the Panic of 1907, a major financial crisis. It saw major banks collapse, the stock market drop nearly 50%, and credit markets freeze across the country.
At the time, the US had no central authority to inject liquidity into the banking system during emergencies or to prevent cascading bank failures from toppling the entire economy.
J.P. Morgan personally orchestrated a bailout using his own fortune, highlighting just how fragile the US financial system had become.
The debate that followed revealed that while the US clearly needed a central bank, politicians were objectively seen as poorly positioned to run it.
Previous attempts at central banking had failed partly due to political interference. Presidents and Congress had used monetary policy to serve short-term political goals rather than long-term economic stability.
So it was decided that a stand-alone body responsible for making all major economic decisions would be created. Essentially, the Fed was created because politicians, who face elections and public pressure, couldn’t be relied upon to make unpopular decisions when needed for the long-term economy.
Although the Fed is designed to be an autonomous body, separate from political influence, it still has accountability to the US government (and thereby US voters).
The President is responsible for appointing the Fed Chair and the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate.
Each Governor serves a 14-year term, and the Chair serves a four-year term. The Governors' terms are staggered to prevent any single administration from being able to change the entire board overnight.
Beyond this “main” board, there are twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks that operate across the country. Their presidents are appointed by private-sector boards and approved by the Fed's seven Governors. Five of these presidents vote on interest rates at any given time, alongside the seven Governors.
This creates a decentralised structure where no single person or political party can dictate monetary policy. Changing the Fed's direction requires consensus across multiple appointees from different administrations.
The case for Fed independence: Nixon, Burns, and the inflation hangover
The strongest argument for keeping the Fed independent comes from Nixon’s time as president in the 1970s.
Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low in the lead-up to the 1972 election. Burns complied, and Nixon won in a landslide. Over the next decade, unemployment and inflation both rose simultaneously (commonly referred to now as “stagflation”).
By the late 1970s, inflation exceeded 13 per cent, Nixon was out of office, and it was time to appoint a new Fed chair.
That new Fed chair was Paul Volcker. And despite public and political pressure to bring down interest rates and reduce unemployment, he pushed the rate up to more than 19 per cent to try to break inflation.
The decision triggered a brutal recession, with unemployment hitting nearly 11 per cent.
But by the mid-1980s, inflation had dropped back into the low single digits.
Pre-Volcker era inflation vs Volcker era inflation | FRED
Volcker stood firm where non-independent politicians would have backflipped in the face of plummeting poll numbers.
The “Volcker era” is now taught as a masterclass in why central banks need independence. The painful medicine worked because the Fed could withstand political backlash that would have broken a less autonomous institution.
Are other central banks independent?
Nearly every major developed economy has an independent central bank. The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia all operate with similar autonomy from their governments as the Fed.
However, there are examples of developed nations that have moved away from independent central banks.
In Turkey, the president forced its central bank to maintain low rates even as inflation soared past 85 per cent. The decision served short-term political goals while devastating the purchasing power of everyday people.
Argentina's recurring economic crises have been exacerbated by monetary policy subordinated to political needs. Venezuela's hyperinflation accelerated after the government asserted greater control over its central bank.
The pattern tends to show that the more control the government has over monetary policy, the more the economy leans toward instability and higher inflation.
Independent central banks may not be perfect, but they have historically outperformed the alternative.
Turkey’s interest rates dropped in 2022 despite inflation skyrocketing
Why do markets care about Fed independence?
Markets generally prefer predictability, and independent central banks make more predictable decisions.
Fed officials often outline how they plan to adjust policy and what their preferred data points are.
Currently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs reports, and quarterly GDP releases form expectations about the future path of interest rates.
This transparency and predictability help businesses map out investments, banks to set lending rates, and everyday people to plan major financial decisions.
When political influence infiltrates these decisions, it introduces uncertainty. Instead of following predictable patterns based on publicly released data, interest rates can shift based on electoral considerations or political preference, which makes long-term planning more difficult.
The markets react to this uncertainty through stock price volatility, potential bond yield rises, and fluctuating currency values.
The enduring logic
The independence of the Federal Reserve is about recognising that stable money and sustainable growth require institutions capable of making unpopular decisions when economic fundamentals demand them.
Elections will always create pressure for easier monetary conditions. Inflation will always tempt policymakers to delay painful adjustments. And the political calendar will never align perfectly with economic cycles.
Fed independence exists to navigate these eternal tensions, not perfectly, but better than political control has managed throughout history.
That's why this principle, forged in financial panics and refined through successive crises, remains central to how modern economies function. And it's why debates about central bank independence, whenever they arise, touch something fundamental about how democracies can maintain long-term prosperity.
As we enter May 2026, the global FX market is attempting a difficult high-wire act. April was defined by “civilisation-ending” ultimatums and a Pakistani-brokered ceasefire that sent Brent crude on a rollercoaster from US$110 down to the mid-US$90s.
For traders, the connect-the-dots moment is this: the peak panic around the Iran conflict has faded, but it has been replaced by a structural regime shift. Markets may be moving from a war premium to a transition premium.
With Kevin Warsh nominated to take the Fed chair in mid-May and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) staring down a generational ceiling near 160.00, the calm in the headlines may be masking a major repricing of global yield differentials.
DXY context
Holding near 100.00 on the “Warsh hawk” floor
Strongest currency
USD, supported by safe-haven demand and yield advantage
Weakest currency
JPY, pressured by the rate gap and energy import exposure
Main central bank theme
The hawkish hold and Fed leadership transition
Main catalyst ahead
RBA (5 May) and US Non-Farm Payrolls (8 May)
Monthly leaderboard — biggest movers
01USD
Rose sharply on safe-haven demand and higher for longer yield expectations.
Strongest
02CHF
Advanced strongly as the preferred European refuge from Middle East risk.
Safe Haven
03AUD
Mixed; caught between domestic energy inflation and a hawkish RBA.
Mixed
04NZD
Under pressure; yield gap and capital outflows remains the primary narrative.
Down
05JPY
Fell to 20-month lows; pressured by the widening rate gap and energy import costs.
Weakest
Strongest mover: US dollar (USD)
The US dollar enters May with a new kind of ballast. While the ceasefire reduced the immediate need for a panic hedge, the nomination of Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as an inflation hawk, has provided a structural floor for the greenback.
Key drivers
The Warsh effect:
Markets may be front-running a shift in Fed independence and a stricter approach to inflation targeting.
Energy insulation:
As a net exporter, the US may be better cushioned against any fragile ceasefire-related flare-ups in oil than Europe or Japan.
Yield floor:
The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% remains a potential magnet for global capital.
What markets are watching next
Traders are watching the 101 level on the DXY. A sustained break above this high-volume area could signal a restart of the primary uptrend and a softer-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report on 8 May may challenge that view.
Weakest mover: Japanese yen (JPY)
If you wanted to design a currency to struggle in 2026, the yen fits the brief. Despite the “TACO” script, short for “Trump always chickens out”, providing some relief to equities, the mathematical pressure on JPY remains significant.
Key drivers
The yield chasm:
Even if the BOJ hikes to 1.00%, the spread against the US dollar would remain around 275 basis points (bps), which may keep the carry trade attractive.
Import vulnerability:
Japan’s heavy reliance on Middle East oil means energy costs may continue to weigh on its current account, even with oil near US$93.
Intervention fatigue:
Finance Minister Katayama has warned of “bold action”, but past interventions in 2022 and 2024 have tended to provide only short-lived relief.
Strategic outlook
USD/JPY is sitting near 159.80. The generational ceiling around 160.40, reportedly not breached in 35 years, remains the key battleground.
Data to watch next
Four events stand out as the clearest catalysts. Each has a direct transmission channel into rate expectations.
Key dates and FX sensitivity
05
May
RBA Policy Decision
AUD pairs, ASX 200 · 02.30 pm AEST
Markets are pricing a 74% chance of a hike to 4.35% as domestic inflation remains persistent.
08
May
US Labour Market (NFP)
USD pairs, Gold · 10:30 pm AEST
A second consecutive miss could create an uncomfortable narrative for the new Fed leadership transition.
12
May
US CPI - April
USD/JPY, EUR/USD · 10:30 pm AEST
The first clear read on whether the April oil spike has leaked into core services and sticky inflation.
20
May
NVIDIA Q1 Earnings
US Tech, AI Infrastructure · Morning AEST
A key pulse check for the AI infrastructure "invoice phase" and broad risk-on sentiment.
Key levels and signals
◆
USD/JPY 160.00
A possible line in the sand for Ministry of Finance intervention. Actual or threatened action here has historically produced sharp reversals in the pair.
◆
AUD/USD 0.7000
A psychological handle that acted as a heavy pivot during the 2025 trade war; remains a near-term directional reference for positioning.
◆
Brent crude US$92.13
Technical resistance where a break lower could confirm the geopolitical floor has weakened, potentially easing pressure on importers.
◆
US 10-year yield 4.5%
A break above this level could create significant valuation pressure for growth-linked FX pairs and emerging market assets.
Bottom line
The FX moves heading into May are being shaped by a normalisation trap. Traders may be betting that the worst of the energy shock is over but a hawkish Fed leadership transition could still re-steepen the yield curve.
Moves are likely to remain highly data-dependent and sensitive to overnight gaps from the Middle East, where geopolitical shifts can gap markets before the next session opens.
Asia-Pacific Coverage
Follow FX through the Asia session
Stay close to Asia-Pacific themes, regional data, sentiment and key crosses.
The oil market has a habit of looking settled right before it stops being settled. That is the setup now.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply as the conflict around Iran has intensified, and more vessels are going dark by switching off AIS, or Automatic Identification System, signals that usually show where ships are moving. Hormuz is not just another shipping lane. It is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, so when visibility starts to disappear, supply risk moves back to the centre of the conversation.
Why this matters now
This matters for a couple of reasons.
The headline move is one thing. The market implication is another. Oil is not only about how many barrels exist, rather, it is also about whether those barrels can move, who is willing to insure them, how long buyers are prepared to wait and how much extra risk traders feel they need to price in.
Right now, three things are colliding at once: disrupted shipping, fragile diplomacy and a market that is already leaning heavily in one direction. That combination can make Brent move faster than the fundamentals alone would normally suggest.
What is driving the move
1 Supply visibility is deteriorating
The first driver is simple. The market can see less, and that tends to make it more nervous.
Transit through Hormuz has fallen sharply, while a growing share of traffic has involved ships that are no longer broadcasting standard tracking signals. In plain English, fewer vessels are moving normally through a critical corridor, and more of the activity is becoming harder to track. That does not automatically mean supply is about to collapse. But it does mean uncertainty is rising.
2 Iran’s storage buffer may be limited
The second driver is Iran’s export and storage constraint.
Onshore storage capacity is estimated at about 40 million barrels, and the market is watching what some describe as a 16-day red line. That is the point at which a prolonged export disruption could begin forcing production cuts to avoid damage to reservoirs. For newer readers, the takeaway is straightforward. If oil cannot leave storage for long enough, the problem may stop being about delayed exports and start becoming a genuine supply issue.
3 Positioning could amplify the move
The third driver is positioning, which is just market shorthand for how traders are already set up before the next move happens.
In this case, speculative crude positioning looks heavily one-sided. That matters because when a market is leaning too far in one direction, it does not take much to trigger a sharp adjustment. A fresh geopolitical shock could force traders to move quickly, and once that starts, price can run harder than the underlying news alone might justify.
Market Education
Hormuz crisis: Understanding global oil risk
What happens when the world’s key energy chokepoint stops flowing? Dive deep into our full breakdown of oil shocks, supply deterioration, and the market ripple effects.
An oil shock rarely stays contained inside the energy market.
Higher crude prices can start showing up in freight, manufacturing and household energy bills. That means inflation expectations can start creeping higher again. Central banks are already trying to manage a difficult balance between sticky inflation and softer growth, so higher oil can make that job harder.
And this is not just a story about oil producers getting a lift. Airlines, transport companies and other fuel-sensitive businesses can come under pressure quickly when energy costs rise. Broader equity markets may also have to rethink the policy outlook if higher oil keeps inflation firmer than expected.
The ripple effects go well beyond oil
There is also a currency angle, and it is less straightforward than it first appears.
Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar often get support when raw material prices rise. But that relationship is not automatic. If oil is climbing because global demand is improving, that can help. If it is climbing because geopolitical risk is spiking, markets can shift into risk-off mode instead, and that can weigh on the Australian dollar even as commodity prices rise.
That is what makes this kind of move more interesting than it looks at first glance. The same oil rally can support one part of the market while putting pressure on another.
Assets and names in the frame
Brent crude remains the clearest read on broad supply risk. If traders want the cleanest expression of the headline story, this is usually where they look first.
ExxonMobil is one of the more obvious names in the frame. Higher oil prices can support realised selling prices and near-term earnings momentum, although it is never as simple as oil up, stock up. Costs, production mix and broader sentiment still matter.
NextEra Energy adds another layer. This story is not only about fossil fuels. When energy security becomes a bigger concern, the case for domestic power resilience, grid investment and alternative generation can strengthen as well.
AUD/USD is another market worth watching. Australia is closely tied to commodity cycles, so stronger raw material prices can sometimes support the currency. But if markets are reacting more to fear than growth, that usual tailwind may not hold.
For newer readers, the key point is that oil moves do not spread through markets in a neat, predictable line. They ripple outward unevenly, helping some assets, pressuring others and sometimes doing both at the same time.
Portfolio Strategy
6 markets to watch as TACO meets oil shock fears
With global trade dynamics shifting rapidly, understanding the "Trump Shock" and its impact on supply chains and currency pairs is vital. Explore how to position your portfolio for upcoming trade volatility.
A strong narrative is not the same as a one-way trade.
A ceasefire could stabilise shipping flows faster than expected. OPEC+ could offset some of the tightness by lifting production. Demand data from China could disappoint, shifting the focus back to weak consumption rather than constrained supply. And if the geopolitical premium fades, oil could pull back more quickly than the current mood suggests.
For newer readers, the takeaway is simple. Oil rallies can be real without being permanent. A move may be justified in the short term by disruption risk, then reverse quickly if those risks ease or if demand softens.
The market is no longer pricing oil in isolation. It is pricing visibility, transport security and the risk that supply disruption spills into inflation, currencies and broader risk sentiment.
That is why Hormuz matters, even for readers who never trade a barrel of crude themselves.
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
We have spent the last three instalments of this series mapping the plumbing of the 2026 economy: the banks that anchor the capital, the utilities that supply the electrons, and the chipmakers building the silicon. As the April reporting season moves into its final act, attention shifts to the front door.
Meta, Amazon and Apple sit at the point where the AI buildout meets everyday consumers and businesses.
Why return on investment is now the focus
A hard divide, sometimes called the “Great Dispersion”, is opening between companies that enable AI and companies that monetise it. Meta and Amazon are at the centre of a massive capital expenditure (capex) cycle, against an estimated industry-wide spend of roughly US$650 billion to US$700 billion in 2026.
That is why return on investment (ROI) metrics are front of mind.
Is Meta’s AI-driven ad targeting strong enough to justify its spending programme?
Is Amazon Web Services (AWS) re-accelerating fast enough to support the custom silicon push?
Can Apple hold its premium valuation by showing the iPhone 17 cycle is real, even in a more difficult Chinese market?
In 2026, the question is no longer only who can build the data centres. It is who can turn those investments into sustainable, high-margin profit. With energy markets calmer after the recent ceasefire, technology valuations have had some room to breathe. Now the market wants evidence.
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 20 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
$META| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Meta Platforms, Inc.
NASDAQ | Technology/Advertising | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.69
Consensus Revenue
US$55.4bn
AUSTRALIA/ASIA30 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market intelligence: $META
Analysis: Meta price drivers and scenarios
Ad click improvement (est.)
+3–5%
From AI-driven targeting
2026 capex estimate
~US$135bn
Market estimate range
Silicon strategy
MTIA 2nm
Broadcom co-development
Strategy note
What is MTIA 2nm? This is Meta's "home-grown" AI chip. The 2nm refers to ultra-advanced, high-efficiency technology. By building their own silicon with Broadcom, Meta aims to slash their massive electricity bills and end their total reliance on buying expensive NVIDIA hardware. If this works, it protects Meta's profit margins even if they keep spending billions on AI.
AVG
LOW US$6.30AVG US$6.69HIGH US$7.10
Meta has moved from its "Year of Efficiency" into what CEO Mark Zuckerberg calls the "Era of Personal Superintelligence". By April 2026, AI appears to have sharpened the company’s core advertising engine, with some reports suggesting ad click rates rose by around 3% to 5%. But the bigger strategic issue is Meta’s multi-year Broadcom partnership to co-develop custom 2nm MTIA chips, with the aim of reducing reliance on NVIDIA and lowering operating costs over time. The risk is that Meta could beat on earnings and still disappoint if management points to higher spending and a longer payoff period. The real question is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the capital expenditure (capex) bill.
Call focus and key signals
The Avocado AI model
Watch for ad click improvements tied to the "Avocado" AI model deployment, currently estimated to be lifting rates by up to 5%.
Signal: Monetisation efficiency
MTIA rollout status
Updates on the custom 2nm MTIA chip rollout with Broadcom will indicate Meta's long term cost structure flexibility.
Watch: Infrastructure independence
Reality Labs losses
Evidence of Reality Labs loss stabilisation would reduce the persistent drag on the overall earnings story.
Watch: Operating loss trend
Capex vs efficiency
The real question for investors is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the significant capex bill.
Signal: Spending productivity
Sentiment analysis: Meta Platforms
Interactive scenario analysis: $META
Select earnings outcome
Productive cycle
Spending cycle becomes productive
EPS above US$7.10, double-digit ad growth, and clear early efficiency gains from MTIA. The market may interpret that as a sign the spending cycle is becoming more productive rather than simply more expensive.
EPS level
Above US$7.10
Ad growth
Double digit
Efficiency
MTIA gains
Reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Expanded Coverage
Beyond the chipmakers
As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.
Amazon is no longer just a retail story. It is increasingly a cloud and advertising business, with a thin-margin logistics network attached. In 2026, the narrative is centred on what reports have described as a roughly US$200 billion capex plan, aimed largely at building out AWS’s AI infrastructure.
$AMZN| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Amazon.com, Inc.
NASDAQ | Technology/Retail | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.69
Consensus Revenue
~US$177.7bn
AU/ASIA30 Apr | 6:00 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:00 pm
Market Intelligence: $AMZN
Analysis: Amazon price drivers and scenarios
AWS growth threshold
20% YoY
Market floor expectation
2026 Capex plan (est.)
~US$200bn
Largely AWS AI infrastructure
Custom silicon
Trainium 3 and 4
In-house AI chip pipeline
AVG
LOW US$1.50AVG US$1.69HIGH US$1.90
Amazon is no longer primarily a retail story. In 2026, the narrative centres on approximately US$200 billion in planned capex, directed largely at building out AWS's AI infrastructure. That is an extraordinary commitment, and the market is watching closely to see whether the returns are following. One metric matters most: AWS growth.
Key signals to watch
AWS growth rate
Anything materially below 20% YoY could reinforce the bear case that spending is running well ahead of returns.
Watch: AWS growth vs 20% floor
Trainium supply commitments
Early supply commitments for Trainium 3 and 4 would signal how quickly the transition to in-house chips is progressing.
Watch: Trainium 3 and 4 progress
Retail margins under tariff pressure
Management commentary on whether Section 122 tariff costs are being absorbed or passed on is vital for the non-AWS story.
Watch: Retail operating margin
Advertising segment momentum
Sustained growth here provides a high-margin earnings cushion if retail margins are squeezed by logistics or tariffs.
Watch: Advertising revenue growth
Sentiment Analysis · Amazon.com Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $AMZN
Select earnings outcome
Investment Landing
Spending cycle lands well
EPS above US$1.90 and AWS growth above 24% with firmer retail margins. The market interprets this as proof the massive investment cycle is delivering efficient returns.
EPS Level
Above US$1.90
AWS Signal
Above 24%
Retail Margin
Firmer
Reaction
Positive rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Apple: quality still needs proof
Apple has looked like the defensive favourite in hardware, helped by record free cash flow (FCF) of US$43.64 billion and the strength of its Services segment. But the latest debate is whether that defensive status can turn back into growth. Third-party shipment data has indicated a roughly 20% rise in China for iPhone 17, challenging the idea that the market is already mature.
$AAPL| Q2 FY2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Apple Inc.
NASDAQ | Consumer Technology | 30 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.91
Consensus Revenue
~US$109.0bn
AU/ASIA01 May | 6:30 am
US/LATAM30 Apr | 4:30 pm
Market intelligence: $AAPL
Analysis: Apple price drivers and scenarios
Free cash flow (FCF)
US$43.6bn
Record, prior period
Services run-rate target
~US$30bn
Quarterly revenue approach
China iPhone 17 shipments
+~20%
Third-party data estimate
AVG
LOW US$1.70AVG US$1.91HIGH US$1.94
Apple is still widely seen as a quality print, but expectations are higher now. Margin resilience alone is no longer enough. The market wants evidence that Apple Intelligence, the company’s on-device AI platform, can extend the upgrade cycle and support more recurring, high-margin Services revenue over time.
Key signals to watch
iPhone 17 demand in China
China remains the most closely watched variable. Third-party data has pointed to growth of around 20%, but earnings will provide the first company-sourced data point.
Watch: China revenue growth
Services revenue trajectory
Services is approaching a US$30 billion quarterly run rate and carries structurally higher margins. Further acceleration reduces reliance on iPhone cycle volatility.
Watch: Services revenue vs US$30bn
Apple Intelligence rollout
On-device AI is a key upgrade catalyst. Management commentary on adoption, features and international timing will shape refresh cycle expectations.
Watch: Apple intelligence milestones
Gross margin
Apple guided to a 48% to 49% range. Holding near the top signals product mix strength. A result below 48% raises questions about cost pressure.
Watch: Gross margin vs 48% to 49%
Sentiment analysis: Apple Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $AAPL
Select report outcome
Growth support
Support for growth narrative
EPS above US$1.94, firmer China iPhone 17 data and gross margin above 49%. The market may interpret that as support for the higher-quality growth narrative and validate the thesis that Apple Intelligence is beginning to drive a meaningful upgrade cycle.
EPS level
Above US$1.94
China demand
Firmer
Gross margin
Above 49%
Reaction
Bullish move
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Thematic risks
What could shift the picture
Three risks could change the narrative, regardless of how the numbers print.
1. Spending without visible returns
Meta and Amazon are both running enormous capex programmes, with payoff periods that stretch well beyond a single quarter. If either company delivers an in line or weaker result while also lifting full year spending guidance, the market may start to see the gap between investment and return as a structural issue rather than a temporary one. That would matter for the sector as a whole, not just for one stock.
2. China as a variable, not a constant
Apple's China story has shown some resilience in third party data, but it remains sensitive to trade policy, consumer confidence and local competition. Any signal from management that demand is softening faster than expected, or that local rivals are gaining meaningful share in the mid range and premium segments, could reset the earnings growth outlook more quickly than consensus currently assumes.
3. The K-shaped consumer backdrop
In a market where higher income consumers are holding up while lower income groups remain under pressure, ad spending patterns and device upgrade cycles can diverge sharply from headline averages. If Meta's ad pricing weakens because smaller businesses pull back, or if Apple's upgrade cycle is concentrated within a narrower demographic, results could disappoint even with broadly stable macro conditions.
Note: These thematic risks may influence sector wide risk appetite independently of headline EPS results.
The bottom line
The 2026 reality check
As this earnings season moves towards its close, the story is shifting away from survival and towards operational execution in the intelligence era.
$META
AI ad efficiency is facing its biggest test yet. Can the Broadcom silicon bet start to show up in margins?
$AMZN
AWS re-acceleration remains the critical signal. A US$200 billion capex push needs a growth rate to match.
$AAPL
Quality still needs proof. Apple Intelligence has to show it can extend the upgrade cycle, not just refresh it.
For Meta, Amazon and Apple, the test is whether heavy investment in silicon, models and infrastructure is turning into measurable cash flow and durable margins. In a more uneven economy, the market appears to be rewarding companies that can show real demand and clearer monetisation. The earnings numbers matter, but management commentary on the return on that investment may matter more.
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.