市场资讯及洞察

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8月3日公布的7月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业PMI）录得55.5，较6月上升1.0个百分点，连续第二个月位于扩张区间，并且创2021年5月以来新高。此前公布的7月财新中国制造业PMI下降1.3个百分点至50.4，仍位于扩张区间，制造业PMI降幅大于服务业PMI升幅，拖累财新中国综合PMI降至54.0，较6月回落1.3个百分点，显示中国企业生产经营活动扩张速度放缓。财新中国服务业PMI走势与国家统计局并不一致，其他两个PMI则走势相同。统计局公布的7月制造业PMI回落1.2个百分点至49.0，再度落入收缩区间，服务业PMI下降1.5个百分点至52.8；综合PMI产出指数录得52.5，低于6月1.6个百分点。

从分项数据看，7月服务业供给和需求继续回暖，经营活动指数和新订单指数均在扩张区间小幅上升，分别升至近15个月来和近九个月来最高。受调查企业反映，最近防疫措施放宽支撑产出增长和客户需求改善。不过，仍有部分企业表示经营活动继续受疫情限制。此外，7月新出口订单指数在收缩区间回落，显示外需仍相对较弱。

尽管服务业供需逐渐恢复，但就业持续恶化。7月服务业就业指数连续第七个月落在荣枯线以下，且较6月小幅回落。这主要是因为企业为控制成本而压缩用工规模，并且在员工自愿离职后没有填补空缺。不过，由于企业复工复产，经营状况日趋正常，服务业积压业务量指数自2021年7月来首次落入收缩区间。

7月食品、燃料、原料和用工等费用上涨，导致服务业投入价格指数在扩张区间上扬，结束了2022年4月以来的回落趋势。由于投入成本增加，服务业出厂价格指数连续第三个月高于临界点，但受需求疲弱的限制，加价幅度有限。由于7月疫情形势的向好和管控措施的放松，助力经济景气度持续恢复。此前受疫情影响更大的服务业恢复势头较制造业更为强劲。供给和需求持续改善，供强需弱格局维持；就业市场收缩明显；企业成本端价格稳中有升，收费端价格平稳，企业盈利面临挑战；市场乐观情绪维持，但对经济和疫情前景亦有担忧。随着服务业经营活动继续好转，企业界信心增强，7月经营预期指数升至2021年12月来最高。多数企业对于疫情将会完全受控比较乐观，对于政府的防疫措施也有预期，认为客户需求将进一步转强，同时公司有扩张计划，并且国家有扶持政策托底。在下半年由于世界经济的颓势，外需可能面临不确定。而且中美对抗及其他地缘政治事件也给世界经济复苏带来很大的不稳定感。在保经济增长的预期下，下半年在基础设施投资，扩大内需和保就业方面的压力就显得非常大，而服务业提供了大量的就业机会，服务业及内需复苏具备长期战略意义。目前看二季度主要宏观经济指标显示，此轮疫情对经济的短期冲击已逐步消退，三季度将是经济修复的重要窗口期，中国经济最黑暗的冰点时刻已经过去了。投资者的信心，也已经慢慢恢复。随着疫情形势的向好和管控措施的放松，生产物流逐步恢复、产业链供应链逐步畅通，经济也开始慢慢重回增长区间。股市作为经济的先行指标，也早已反映了中国经济最困难的时候已经过去了。既然最悲观的时候已经过去，那么未来就是行情修复的时候，投资机会也开始慢慢出现。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jason Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

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澳联储加息50个基点，符合市场预期，澳股下午回暖明显，指数收小阳线结束。11大板块8个上涨，但能源、原材料均下跌、地产板块领跌、美股股指期货当前下跌。受佩洛西行程影响，造成地区不安因素，若爆发地域局部冲突，美股将受一定影响。

上一周，我们在美联储议息会议召开的时候，提到市场即将迎来转折，目前看无论是纳指还是黄金的走势都在我们推演的范围内。我们先来看看近期这些主要产品的走势：美元指数目前来到了105.5附近，日内即将触及105的低位。上周的时候还在107附近震荡，随着美国加息预期的减弱，美元越来越多的多头仓位开始获利了结，并且开始看空。这就导致美元的回调较为严重，从日线级别来看，连续4根大阴线将美元指数拉平只下跌前的高点，105-105.5这也是一个关键区间，如果后续美元指数跌破区间，下方下跌空间将打开，回调可能会更加到位。虽然现在美元在加息周期当中，但也可以适当布局空单，下方101.5附近的支撑较强，可作为获利参考位置。

黄金目前已经反弹至接近1800的位置，我们在1676的时候提示过支撑位可以考虑开始建仓试探，在黄金1720以及1750附近的时候都有提示行情即将出现翻转，是时候转换做空的态度反向做多，加之近期地缘政治的紧张局势，进一步推升了黄金的价格体现了其避险的属性，在1800整数关口附近可能会拉扯一段时间，同时也是风格保守的投资者获利了结或者部分平仓的机会。后续如果站稳1800之上，那么随着通胀的走高，黄金可能还会继续受到投资者青睐。

纳指方面，目前已经来到上一周预告的13000点，并且承压，但是触及13000点就进一步加大了翻转的可能性。各大公司的财报也将会陆续公布，原油价格的持续回落大大增加了通胀即将见顶的可能性，那么利空出尽就是利好了。结合美股衰退周期一般在8-12个月左右的特性，那么纳指后续突破阻力，站稳13000站上13200的可能性将会增加。目前的策略是逢低做多。

原油方面，在进入7月以来，原油的价格大都在100之下运行，符合我们长期的看空原油的预期。在俄乌冲突之后，我们的价格锚点理论就认为，很难有基本面的时间导致原油冲破冲突时的最高点，除非产生更大的冲突。随着欧佩克领导人的意外死亡，原油价格也一蹶不振，并且近期即将召开的欧佩克会议可能会提出更加大幅度的增产计划，会进一步推进原油的下跌，交易思路上依旧是逢高做空。

免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Rick Shao | GO Markets 专业分析师

Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported its Q2 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The American biotechnology company posted results that beat expectations, sending the stock higher at the open. The company reported revenue of $4.749 billion for the quarter vs. $4.097 billion expected.

Earnings per share reported at $5.24 per share vs. $4.58 per share estimate. "Today's earnings represent a strong second quarter performance, with $10.8 billion in revenue for the first half of the year. We continue to have advance purchase agreements for expected delivery in 2022 of around $21 billion of sales. Given our strong financial position and commercial momentum, we are announcing today that the Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program for $3 billion," Stéphane Bancel, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Despite the slowing economy and challenges in the biotech industry, Moderna is in a unique position: a platform to drive scale and speed in research of new medicines, a strong balance sheet with $18 billion of cash and an agile, mission-driven team of over 3,400 people and growing.

We will continue to invest and grow as we have never been as optimistic about Moderna's future. Right now, we have four infectious disease vaccines in Phase 3 trials, and later this year, we expect important data from proof-of-concept studies in rare diseases and immuno-oncology. Our teams are actively working to prepare these new product launches to help patients and drive growth.

This is an exciting time for Moderna as we continue to see significant scientific and business momentum," Bancel concluded. Moderna Inc. (MRNA) chart The stock was up by around 14% on Wednesday at $187.11 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +16.71% 3 Month +20.11% Year-to-date -26.68% 1 Year -55.56% Moderna price targets SVB Leerink $77 Piper Sandler $214 Morgan Stanley $199 Deutsche Bank $155 UBS $221 B of A Securities $180 Moderna is the 180 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $74.57 billion.

You can trade Moderna Inc. (MRNA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Moderna Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

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5月份以来，澳洲房价下跌速度平均为1%每月。自5月初以来，澳大利亚房地产中值已下降至不足75万澳元（包括独栋房屋和公寓）。这是澳大利亚自全球金融危机和1980年代经济衰退以来“房价下跌最快的速度” 。悉尼的房价中值在7月份单月下降了2.2%（其季度跌幅为4.7%）。墨尔本和霍巴特的房价也出现了大幅下跌，上个月这两个城市的房价都下跌了1.5%。由于2020年之后，房价上涨幅度超过30%，假如全澳房价下跌了15%，那价格也就是回到2021年4月左右的水平，回落顶峰将在2023年出现。各大金融机构的预测如下：AMP Capital：到2023年底，下跌$13.55万（跌幅15%）澳洲联邦银行：2023年底，下跌 $108,240（12%）西太银行：到2023年底，下跌$103,750（11.5%）澳洲国民银行：到2023年底，下跌$103,750（11.5%）澳新银行：到2023年底，下跌$99,220 （11%）

未来如果澳洲RBA继续加息，现金利率将上升至1.85%，那么贷款利率将突破4%。不过还贷成本上升，也导致了房东将成本转嫁到租金上，澳洲租金目前经历了大幅度上涨，涨幅超过10%，并且还没有到头的迹象。

近期国际局势比较复杂，中美关系比较微妙，近期佩洛西的举措可能让矛盾进一步升级。因此，对于未来中澳贸易、铁矿石出口等都会产生一定影响。在经济持续下滑、加息还在继续的背景下，出现政治对经济的负面干扰则会对房市产生进一步压力。最终造成购买力下降，购买人数减少，流动性资金减少。

未来可以作为房市参考的有股票：REA，作为澳洲最大房产买卖网站的龙头，realestate的股价将反映出未来人们对于房价走势的预期。并且，股票市场往往优先于房地产市场6-12个月。就好比2020年股市反弹和房市反弹的周期类似。因此，我们需要关注的是，加息周期到几月结束，结束后半年房市能否停止下跌。以及房地产相关的股票市场，能否在下半年企稳，不再创出新低。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 中文部分析主管

Todays RBA policy meeting is expected by most analysts to result in a 50bp hike as the bank tries to play catch up and get on top of elevated inflation figures. The slightly lower Q2 CPI figures released last week has seen futures markets price out what was earlier feared could be a 75bp supersized move, a 50bp hike would see the bank able to respond further in September should the Wage price index data due on 17 August show an alarming increase in wage costs. A 50bp hike today will bring the cash rate up to 1.85% which means we would be looking at least a further 65bp of hikes coming to bring the cash rate to the neutral level of 2.5% indicated by RBA governor Lowe at the last RBA policy meeting.

Currently August rate futures are trading at an implied yield of 1.76%, pricing in a rise of 41bp which indicates traders are giving around an 80% chance of a 50bp hike. Bond traders are rarely wrong when this much is priced in so I expect a 50bp move today with the accompanying statement giving clues to Septembers meeting where it’s looking so far as a toss up between 25 or 50bp. Expected AUD reaction If a 50bp hike is announced, the most likely course in the short term for the AUD will be an initial spike up due to the markets only pricing in 80%, then volatility as the algos read the statement, and more volatility as humans get through it.

Followed by a sustained move in either direction depending on how markets re-price after digesting what the RBA has released. Keep an eye on our Twitter page for instant reaction to the RBA announcement Also please join us on our live webinar of the RBA meeting and market reaction, register at the link below RBA Live Webinar

PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) announced its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. The US financial technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion in Q2, topping Wall Street estimate of $6.778 billion. Earnings per share also beat analyst estimates for the quarter at $0.93 per share vs. $0.87 per share estimate. ''Our second quarter results were solid with currency neutral revenue and non-GAAP earnings growth exceeding expectations.

We continue to gain share as we execute across our key strategic initiatives, even as we drive operational efficiency across our business.'' Dan Schulman, President and CEO of PayPal said in a press release after the latest results. PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) chart Shares of PayPal were up by 1.20% at the close of trading on Tuesday $89.63. The stock rose by around 11% after better than expected Q2 results.

Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +20.47% 3 Month -1.19% Year-to-date -52.47% 1 Year -67.23% PayPal price targets Berenberg $145 Oppenheimer $101 Keybanc $100 Wells Fargo $97 JP Morgan $112 JMP Securities $100 RBC Capital $92 Piper Sandler $93 Truist Securities $80 Credit Suisse $95 Morgan Stanley $129 PayPal is the 118 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $103.79 billion. You can trade PayPal Holding Inc. (PYPL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: PayPal Holding Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap