市场资讯及洞察

Since reaching a local bottom in October of last year, XAUUSD has experienced a strong uptrend of over 13%. Closing its third consecutive positive session, Gold is inching closer to its all-time high, now sitting just above $2,050 USD per ounce. From a technical standpoint, Gold is following a well-defined rising channel that has been predominantly respected since November 2023.

As the price approaches the midpoint of this channel, there is a possibility, especially on lower time frames, that this point may act as temporary resistance. This is a crucial level to monitor closely. Image: GOLD Chart The recent positive momentum in XAUUSD is closely tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The enduring conflict between Gaza and Israel, coupled with the initiation of a new US-led conflict in Yemen against the Houthis, has contributed to the precious metal's strength. The current economic landscape in the United States, along with projections for rate cuts in 2024, also is playing a pivotal role in Gold's recent performance. In response to US inflation climbing from nearly 0% to a peak of 9.10% in July 2022, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times.

The rates have surged from 0.25% to the current 5.50%. Image: CPI and Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Chart Data suggests the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024, with some anticipating cuts as early as the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME data, market expectations indicate a projection of six rate cuts for 2024, culminating in an effective rate of approximately 3.50-3.75% by year-end.

Image: CME FedWatch Historically, the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like Gold tends to rise when interest rates decrease, contributing to the recent upward trajectory of Gold prices. Gold traders will be closely monitoring the evolving tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This scrutiny aims to draw insights into the potential timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their subsequent impact on Gold's market dynamics.

A hotter than expected CPI reading out of the UK along with a beat in US retail sales saw global markets turn risk off as rates markets hawkishly re-priced chances of cuts coming from Central Banks. The unwinding of priced in Fed cuts saw a spike in treasury yields and the USD bid, with DXY hitting a high of 103.69 after the December US retail sales report came in hotter than expected. DXY finding resistance at the July-October 50% Fib level before paring gains.

GBP saw decent gains vs the USD and EUR after a beat in the December UK CPI reading where the Y/Y figure came in at 4% vs an expected 3.8%. GBPUSD fell just short of breaching the 1.2700 level, hitting a high of 1.2696 as UK rates markets priced in a lower amount of 2024 rate cuts. JPY was weak throughout the session with losses accelerating after the US retail sales report.

USDJPY taking out the big figure at 148 rising in lockstep the US-JP yield differential. On current momentum the psychological 150 level is possibly coming into play, and with it, BoJ intervention speculation. AUDUSD extended January’s losses on the sour risk sentiment and mixed Chinese figures on Wednesday.

The Aussie holding below 0.6600 and dropping to Decembers lows at 0.6520 before finding some support. AUD traders have todays key December employment report to look forward to, after a bumper November reading this one will be watched closely.

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) announced Q4 2023 financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Friday. The US bank reported revenue that fell short of estimates of $23.5 billion vs. $23.703 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported well below analyst expectations at $0.35 per share vs. $0.533 per share estimate.

Company overview Founded: 1998 (via the merger of BankAmerica & NationsBank), 1956 (as BankAmerica), 1784 (as its predecessor, the Massachusetts Bank, through the merger with FleetBoston in 1999) Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 217,000 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Brian Moynihan (Chairman and CEO), Anne Finucane (Co-Vice chairman), Bruce Thompson (Co-Vice chairman) CEO commentary "We reported solid fourth quarter and full-year results as all our businesses achieved strong organic growth, with record client activity and digital engagement. This activity led to good loan demand and growth in deposits in the quarter and full-year net income of $26.5 billion. Our expense discipline allowed us to continue investing in growth initiatives.

Strong capital and liquidity levels position us well to continue to deliver responsible growth in 2024," CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan said in a press release. Stock reaction The stock was down by just over 1% on Friday at $32.77 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -5.68% 1 month: -3.35% 3 months: +21.36% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: -7.82% Bank of America stock price targets Barclays: $43 Odean Capital Group: $37.94 Goldman Sachs: $33 Oppenheimer: $51 BMO Capital Markets: $40 Jefferies Financial Group: $28 Evercore ISI: $33 Morgan Stanley: $32 Piper Sandler: $27.50 Royal Bank of Canada: $35 HSBC: $35 Wells Fargo: $40 Citigroup: $33 UBS Group: $36 JP Morgan: $34 Bank of America Corp. is the 39th largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.76 billion.

You can trade Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays. Please see specifications section on platform for further details.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Bank of America Corp., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, MarketBeat

热门话题

周三，澳大利亚股市飙升至历史新高，ASX 200 指数当日收盘上涨 1.1%，达到 7680.7 点，比2021 年 8 月创下的上一收盘纪录 7628.9 高出 51.8 点。盘中新高一度触及7682.3。

而澳元对美元不到2小时内暴跌0.6%，累计跌39.4个基点，最低0.65592。

澳洲物价超预期放缓促使澳元短线下跌的主要原因是澳洲通胀超预期放缓至近两年低点4.1%。其实通胀这个话题我们已经聊了2023年一整年了。大家知道澳联储多次的加息就是为了打压物价，抵抗通货膨胀。所以目前的通胀数据超预期放缓对于大家来说应该是个好消息。这代表澳联储今年不仅没有加息的空间，很可能还会开始降息。这对于有房贷压力，以及2023年生活成本增加的大家来说绝对是比较振奋人心的。澳洲下半年可能降息目前市场认为澳联储今年不太可能进一步加息，但是第一次降息也不会太早发生，因为现在通胀下降的速度是达标了，但是澳联储定下的通胀区间是2-3%，目前4.1%的物价水平还是略高了一些。降息可能至少在今年下半年9月份之后开始，到2024年底前，可以期待一下会有两次降息。

GO Markets投资机会解析在2024年降息的大背景下，首先利好的就是股票市场，投资者可以交易我们今天提到的澳股指数，也可以优先关注对利率敏感的公用事业和房地产板块。当然，我们也可以选择交易澳元货币对，目前影响澳元的因素除了今天我们提到 的澳洲不加息，还需要考虑到美国以及中国的经济政策情况。但是可以明确的是，澳元将在区间内运行，因此多空双方都有投资机会。这里可以优先关注澳美及澳日货币对。

US financial services giant, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), reported the latest financial results for Q4 2023 before the market open in the US on Friday. JP Morgan reported revenue of $38.574 billion for the quarter, falling short of Wall Street estimate of $39.73 billion. Revenue was up by 11.65% year-over-year.

Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.04 per share for Q4 (down by 14.84% vs. Q4 2022), also below analyst estimate of $3.349 per share. Company overview Founded: 2000 Headquarters: New York City, United States Number of employees: 308,669 (2023) Industry: Financial services Key people: Jamie Dimon (Chairman & CEO), Daniel E.

Pinto (President & COO) CEO commentary "We ended the year with a solid quarter, producing net income of $9.3 billion, or $12.1 billion excluding the FDIC special assessment and discretionary securities losses. Our record results in 2023 reflect over-earning on both NII and credit, but we remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver very healthy returns even after they normalize. Our balance sheet remained extremely strong, with a CET1 ratio of 15.0%, a staggering $514 billion of total loss-absorbing capacity and $1.4 trillion in cash and marketable securities.

We continue to believe that the recent series of regulatory and legislative proposals, including Basel III endgame, could cause serious harm to consumers, businesses, and markets. We hope that regulators will make the necessary adjustments so the rules promote a strong financial system without causing undue consequences for end users," CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon commented on the latest results. Dimon also made comments on the state of the US economy and global challenges: "The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and markets currently expect a soft landing.

It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also an ongoing need for increased spending due to the green economy, the restructuring of global supply chains, higher military spending and rising healthcare costs. This may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect.

On top of this, there are a number of downside risks to watch. Quantitative tightening is draining over $900 billion of liquidity from the system annually, and we have never seen a full cycle of tightening. And the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have the potential to disrupt energy and food markets, migration, and military and economic relationships, in addition to their dreadful human cost.

These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious. While we hope for the best, the past year demonstrated why we must be prepared for any environment." Stock reaction The stock ended Friday down by 0.73% at $169.05 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -1.87% 1 month: +2.31% 3 months: +14.22% Year-to-date: -0.62% 1 year: +18.21% JP Morgan Chase & Co. stock price targets Deutsche Bank: $190 Bank of America: $188 Barclays: $212 Oppenheimer: $243 Morgan Stanley: $191 Piper Sandler: $170 BMO Capital Markets: $171 Jefferies Financial Group: $169 Evercore ISI: $167 Royal Bank of Canada: $158 HSBC: $159 Credit Suisse: $170 JP Morgan Chase & Co. is the 13th largest company in the world with a market cap of $488.72 billion.

You can trade JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: JP Morgan Chase & Co., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

热门话题

2024年美国大选分为五个阶段：各州党内初选（1月-6月）、两党候选人正式提名（7月-8月）、总统辩论（9月-10月）、选民投票（11月-12月）、新任总统就职（2025年1月）。最新的美国民调显示，共和党暂时领先民主党，特朗普支持率47%领先拜登的44%，18-30岁的选民更喜欢特朗普，并且目前七大关键摇摆州均偏向特朗普。今年美国大选特朗普胜率很高，一些特朗普概念股连续上涨，部分股票例如Digital World Acquisition Corp股价在最近一周时间已经从17涨到37美金，超过翻倍。除此之外，受到影响的美国股票还包括，能源和矿业公司：由于特朗普政府对化石燃料的支持和环保法规的放松，石油、天然气和煤炭公司可能受益。国防和军工企业：鉴于特朗普政府增加国防开支的倾向，国防承包商和军工企业可能表现良好。金融服务公司：特朗普政府放松金融监管，可能对银行和其他金融机构有利。制造业和重工业：特朗普承诺振兴美国制造业，特别是钢铁和汽车行业，可能使这些行业的公司受益。建筑和基础设施：特朗普提出的基础设施建设计划可能使相关建筑和工程公司受益。技术公司：特朗普政府对中国技术公司采取的措施可能影响与中国市场有重大业务往来的美国技术公司。医药和生物科技公司：特朗普政府对药品价格和医疗保健政策的态度可能影响这一行业，中长期看医药公司股价会受到压制。贸易敏感股票：受特朗普贸易政策影响较大的公司，特别是在美中贸易战中受影响的公司。包括一些物流公司、包装类公司股价可能会受到冲击。

若特朗普当选，对外重启惩罚性关税的概率很大。特朗普在竞选活动中表示将对墨西哥、加拿大等国采取新的惩罚性关税措施，甚至可能进一步考虑对美国所有进口商品（总计价值约3.9万亿美元）征收10%的“普遍基准关税”。同时，收紧国际援助，对内推动减税、继续建边境墙，限制新增移民。特朗普当下参与总统选举，是美国历史上一个非常传奇的事情。特朗普本人目前官司缠身，在诽谤案件中背叛赔偿8330万美金给被特朗普诬陷为骗子的受害女性。税务上依旧处于被调查的状态，但那位窃取并泄露特朗普纳税记录的男子也受到了处罚，被判五年监禁。对于这样的一位缺点非常明显总统，在意识形态出现严重分裂的美国受到了欢迎，意味着美国国内的经济政策，外交政策等方面亟需变革。美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的任期（2017年至2021年）期间，确实产生了很多对美国居民友好的政绩，涵盖了多个方面。经济上做得贡献很多：实施了大规模的税收改革，降低了公司和个人税率。在任期初期，美国经济快速增长，失业率下降，股市上涨。推动贸易政策重构，包括重新谈判北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA），形成了美墨加协定（USMCA）。外交方面：采取强硬的对华政策，包括对中国商品征收关税，引发美中贸易战，重新确立美国全球的经济地位。促进以色列与若干阿拉伯国家之间的关系正常化（亚伯拉罕协议）。与朝鲜领导人金正恩进行历史性会晤，尽管未能实现具体的无核化协议。移民政策：实施严格的移民政策，包括建造美墨边境墙，遏制偷渡行为。废除了奥巴马时期的“追梦人”计划（DACA），虽后来被法院阻止。在环境政策上，退出了巴黎气候协议，并放宽了一些环保法规。若重新当选，可能会鼓励石油开采，将石油价格打压至更低的水平。

总的来说，特朗普竞选美国总统成功，中美可能重启贸易战。石油价格大概率会下跌，特朗普提到希望将石油价格控制在20美金以内，并无视环保主义。其次，俄乌战争可能很快结束，避险资产价格回落。最重要的是，特朗普将中国视为最大竞争对手，并希望增加美国就业，支持美国制造，提升美国的全球影响力。特朗普据说已经在商讨对中国征收60%的关税，取消中国最惠国待遇。同时，可能会扩大到对所有产品征收关税。恒生指数和中概股在这种背景下会继续疲软，不建议大家抄底。但对于澳币可能长期利好，对于美股也有政策上的支撑。免责声明：GO Market分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表 GO Markets 的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Jacky Wang | GO Markets 亚洲投研部主管