South Africa Update 8 th August 2017, the day president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, which made sure that he will maintain power of one of the biggest economies in the African continent. It is worth noting that it was the eighth vote of no-confidence that Zuma has survived since being in charge. About Jacob Zuma Name: Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma Born: 12 April 1942 Birthplace: Nkandla, South Africa Political part: African National Congress Jacob Zuma, who has been involved in corruption allegations since being elected as the president of South Africa in 2009, survived the vote by a majority of 198 votes to 177 after the vote was called by the Democratic Alliance party who accused Zuma of suppressing democracy.
Even though the motion was defeated, it might still have an impact on the party which currently leads South Africa. Unlike the previous no-confidence votes, the latest vote was held anonymously and there were suggestions it could reach 50 votes of no-confidence from the Zuma’s African National Congress party, which is the number required to pass the motion. Instead 24 members of his part voted against their leader, around 12 others refrained or failed to show up to the vote which would suggest further unrest within the party further down the line.
Many have suggested that Zuma will not last until 2019, which is when the next general election takes place. Financial Markets The South African Rand weakened against the US Dollar after President Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence which could have ended his administration of the African nation. The decline was a big turnaround for the Rand which was the best performing major currency on earlier in the week.
Despite the result, it is unlikely to cause a major weakness as the result was largely priced in before the vote took place. USD/ZAR By: Klavs Valters GO Markets
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全球顶级大厂对最前沿先进制程晶圆以及高端先进封装的贪婪蚕食速度,已经远远把底层供应链的常态扩产周期甩在了身后。这种持仓超载带来的**内生脆性风险**,正在强行迫使顶级 AI 巨头未雨绸缪地去寻找替代制造水源 —— 这绝非他们要脱离或抛弃台积电,而是因为在风控准则上,大厂绝不能将万亿美元的算力帝国单边绑死在单一地理节点的供应链上。
一颗顶级 AI 算力大芯片的诞生,绝不仅仅是将光刻机在晶圆上蚀刻出电路那么简单。工程师必须在微观层面上,将算力核心的核心中央处理器、海量的高带宽显存(HBM)以及其他异构组件,以极度变态的物理密度进行拼装互联,使其在财务能效比上能像一个闭环整体那样爆发出超级算力。这一道决定生死的终极组装工艺,在行业内被统称为高级先进封装。
看涨英特尔(Intel) Foundry 战略的长线逻辑极具说服力:**全球 AI 基础设施建设资本支出依旧高亢暴动**,台积电的物理承载力逼近绝对瓶颈,跨国巨头急切需要一个在技术、地缘和产权安全上完全靠得住的第二制造温床。如果英特尔能够成功将目前传出的多项大厂试单测试意向真正沉淀为流水线上的量产出货,华尔街将乐此不疲地对其转型前景执行暴利重新计价。
更底层的风险在于**全球 AI 硬件资本支出的大周期拐点**。倘若在 5 月 27 日核心宏观数据和美债收益率冲高的双重压制下,谷歌、微软、亚马逊或 Meta 等超大规模云厂商在下半年对数据中心等重资产砸钱的步伐出现边际失速,那么整场芯片战争所赖以生存的总蛋糕都将面临残酷的系统性估值倍数(Valuation Multiple)大清洗,届时全行业泥沙俱下,任何个股的微观进展都绝无可能在大雪崩中逆势独活。
作为坐在交易面板前的你,未来决定多空头寸生死存亡的终极监测变量包括:顶级大厂生产性订单的最终法律合同落地、18A 制程的量产良率拐点、英特尔代工单元经营性亏损的边际改善情况、台积电先进封装的扩产速度,以及全球超大规模云厂商的 AI 资本开支大盘有无发生见顶刹车。