Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Intelligent Cloud (Azure)

Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.

Productivity and Business Processes

Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.

Personal Computing

Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.

Artificial intelligence

Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.

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What happened last quarter

Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues. 

Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.

Last earnings key highlights:

• Revenue: US$77.7 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted) 
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
• Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year 
• Operating income: US$38.0 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion 
• EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted) 
• Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable 
• Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.

Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16^th January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.

As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Australian CPI may test market pricing for a February RBA move, while the Federal Reserve narrative will be followed closely, even though a pause is widely expected. It is also a busy US earnings week, with mega-cap names headlining, and Gold remains a key market focus.

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• Australia CPI: Australian CPI is the key domestic release, with markets pricing the risk of a February RBA rate increase.
• US Federal Reserve: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with attention on whether a potential June rate cut remains intact.
• US mega-cap tech earnings: Earnings from large-cap technology names may test whether current equity valuations remain supported.
• Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs.

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Australia

• Australia CPI (Q4): Wednesday, 28 January

Stronger-than-expected jobs report this week lifted market expectations for further policy tightening. 

According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, market-implied pricing for a February rate increase has risen to above 60%.

Market impact

• AUD crosses may respond to any shift in rate expectations
• Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see follow-through moves

Federal Reserve

• FOMC rate decision: Wednesday, 28 January (US) | 29 January (AEDT)

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce no change in rates after its two-day meeting. 

Market focus will centre on communication around inflation progress, and whether market-implied pricing for a potential June rate cut is reinforced or challenged.

Market impact

• USD direction may respond to any shift in policy tone across multiple asset classes
• US Treasury yields, especially at the front end, may react to changes in rate expectations

US mega-cap earnings

• Boeing: 27 January (US time) | 28 January AEDT
• Microsoft: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Meta Platforms: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Tesla: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Caterpillar: 29 January (US time, before market open)/30 January AEDT
• Apple: 29 January (US time, after market close) | 30 January AEDT

Earnings from US mega-cap technology companies are likely to dominate headlines, but next week is also one of the busiest periods so far this earnings season across multiple sectors. 

Markets are likely to focus on guidance, margins and capital expenditure as much as the headline results.

Market impact

• Nasdaq leadership breadth may respond to guidance consistency
• With equity markets remaining generally strong, current valuations will again be tested
• Overall performance across sectors will be viewed as a lens into the state of the econ

(Note: Dates may be subject to change)

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Gold

At the US close on 22 January 2026, COMEX gold futures traded around US$4,920/oz, with the psychologically important 5,000 level in view. 

Sensitivity to Treasury yields and the USD, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical developments may influence price action either way.

Market impact

• Gold prices can remain sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, USD movements and geopolitical developments.
• Movements around record levels can be volatile and unpredictable, and may reverse quickly.

Final takeaways

• If Australian CPI suggests inflation persistence, market pricing may continue to lean toward a February RBA move
• If the Fed narrative is less dovish than expected, current assumptions may be challenged
• If mega-cap earnings reinforce valuation confidence, leadership from these stocks may help support broader equity levels
• If gold holds near record highs, USD weakness and hedging demand may remain key drivers

US and European market attention this week is centred on the US Personal Income and Outlays report (which includes the PCE price index), late-week flash PMI releases, and a continued ramp-up in the US earnings season. 

Alongside key data, geopolitical developments, including renewed discussion around Greenland and tariff threats, remain part of the broader risk backdrop.

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Quick facts:

• US PCE inflation: Closely watched by policymakers as an important inflation measure (released within the Personal Income and Outlays report).
• Flash PMIs: US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK are due late week, offering a read on growth momentum.
• US earnings: Large-cap and index-heavy companies shaping sentiment at elevated index levels.
• Geopolitical headlines: Greenland and proposed tariff measures add a layer of uncertainty to broader risk sentiment.
• Equity indices: Trading at elevated levels, which may increase sensitivity to data and earnings surprises.

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United States

What to watch

US markets reopen after the Juneteenth holiday, with the US data calendar featuring the PCE price index and core PCE measures. Outcomes that differ from expectations can influence interest-rate expectations and near-term risk sentiment.

Later in the week, flash PMIs offer a more current snapshot of activity across manufacturing and services. US earnings remain a key driver of sentiment, and with indices at elevated levels, valuation and guidance narratives may be tested as results are released.

Key releases and events

• Thu 22 Jan (US): BEA GDP release — Q3 2025 (Updated Estimate)
• Thu 22 Jan (US): BEA Personal Income and Outlays (Oct & Nov 2025) — includes PCE price index and core PCE
• Fri 23 Jan (US): S&P Global flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)
• Throughout the week: US earnings season continues

How markets may respond

• Equities: Indices have been trading at elevated levels. As of 10:30am AEDT, 20 January 2026, the S&P 500 was within ~50 points of its record high.
• USD: PCE results that differ from expectations can contribute to volatility in FX and USD-linked assets, while PMI data can influence shorter-term momentum. 
• Earnings: In a market trading at elevated levels, earnings results and forward guidance can generate volatility even without large headline misses. Forward guidance and margin commentary are likely to be closely watched.

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UK and eurozone

What to watch

In the UK, CPI and labour market data can influence rate expectations and perceptions of growth momentum. In Germany, producer price data offers insight into pipeline inflation pressures. Flash PMIs across the Eurozone, Germany, and the UK complete the week’s calendar and may influence near-term growth assessments.

Key releases and events

Eurozone and Germany

• Thu 22 Jan: Germany PPI
• Fri 23 Jan: Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI (with services PMI)
• Fri 23 Jan: Germany flash manufacturing PMI

United Kingdom

• Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
• Thu 22 Jan: UK labour market report
• Fri 23 Jan: UK flash manufacturing PMI (with services PMI)

How markets may respond

• DAX: The German index has been trading at elevated levels. PMI and PPI outcomes may influence cyclical sectors, notably industrials and exporters.
• FTSE 100 and GBP: UK CPI and labour market data can affect rate expectations and GBP sensitivity, while PMI outcomes may influence sector-level performance within the index.
• EUR: Euro moves may reflect PMI momentum and inflation signals, though direction can still be heavily influenced by US outcomes and global risk sentiment. 

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Geopolitics

Reporting has focused on renewed discussion around Greenland and associated tariff threats. Reporting also outlines tariff rates and potential escalation timelines, though details and implementation remain subject to change, and the situation is fluid.

Market reaction has been limited so far. If rhetoric escalates, markets could see intermittent volatility across equities, commodities, and FX. safe-haven moves (including in gold) are possible, though reactions can be uneven and may reverse.

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US and Europe calendar summary

• Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
• Thu 22 Jan (US) / Fri 23 Jan(AEDT): 
  
  • US GDP (Q3 2025 updated estimate)
  • US Personal Income and Outlays (Oct/Nov, includes PCE) 
  • UK labour market report
• Fri 23 Jan: Flash PMIs (US, Eurozone, Germany, UK)

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Bottom line

• The Personal Income and Outlays report (including PCE inflation measures) is one of the key US macro events this week and may influence rate expectations if outcomes differ materially from expectations.
• With equity indices trading at elevated levels, markets may be more sensitive to negative surprises and guidance downgrades than to confirmatory data.
• European releases — particularly UK CPI and the flash PMIs — remain important locally but may still trade in the context of US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.
• Geopolitical developments around Greenland and tariffs remain a secondary but persistent source of uncertainty.

Asia-Pacific markets head into this week focused on China’s growth data, potential JPY volatility with a Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting week, and Australia's labour force report and commodity prices. Geopolitical events also remain in focus globally, and the US earnings season’s progression may indirectly influence sentiment.

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Quick facts:

• China: Q4 GDP and December industrial production data will be read as a test of whether growth is stabilising or simply slowing more gradually.
• Japan: The BoJ meets 22–23 January, and Japan CPI (Dec) is due on 23 January, keeping USD/JPY and rates in focus.
• Australia: Labour Force (Dec) is the key local catalyst, alongside whether metal prices continue to support the materials sector.

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China

What to watch:

China’s focus shifts to hard activity data, with Q4 GDP and December activity indicators offering a read on growth momentum into 2026. Markets are increasingly focused on whether recent policy support is translating into clearer traction in the real economy.

Key releases:

• Mon 19 Jan: Q4 GDP, December industrial production (primary). Retail sales and fixed asset investment (secondary).

How markets may respond:

• Growth-sensitive sectors in Chinese equities may react if the data reinforces that domestic demand remains soft, especially if headline GDP diverges from expectations.
• Australian assets may respond to GDP and industrial output outcomes, with implications for materials stocks. The data may also influence AUD sentiment following recent consolidation.

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Japan

With the BoJ meeting later in the week, markets may see pre-decision volatility as positioning shifts around how hawkish the BoJ narrative may be. While consensus expectations often lean toward no change, the statement and press conference will be watched closely for any change in tone.

Key events:

• Fri 23 Jan: Bank of Japan rate decision and press conference (high sensitivity)
• Fri 23 Jan: Japan CPI (Dec) (medium sensitivity)
• Thu 22 Jan: Trade statistics — first 20 days of Dec (provisional) (low sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

• USD/JPY: Often acts as a fast channel for repricing Japan risk during BoJ weeks, particularly if guidance shifts expectations for the next move.
• Nikkei 225: Japanese equities can remain responsive to FX stability, particularly across exporter-heavy sectors. All-time high levels of 54000 will be watched as a key level.
  

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Australia

Australia’s week is dominated by the employment data, with external influences from China’s data and broader global risk conditions also in view. Markets will likely focus on the balance between employment growth and participation and what it implies for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.

Key release:

• Thu 22 Jan: Labour force, Australia (Dec) (high sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

• ASX 200: Domestic cyclicals can react to the rates takeaway more than the headline jobs number. After the material-driven move back over 8800, this week will be key in determining whether a test of the psychologically important 9000 is on the cards.
• AUD/USD: Rate expectations can shift quickly. A stronger-than-expected jobs result could support the AUD, while a weaker print (or a rise in unemployment) could weigh on it.
  

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Asia-Pacific calendar summary (AEDT)

• Mon 19 Jan: China GDP (Q4), industrial production and retail sales
• Tue 20 Jan: China Loan Prime Rate (1Y/5Y) (Jan)
• Thu 22 Jan: Australia employment (Dec); Japan trade statistics — first 20 days of Dec (provisional)
• Fri 23 Jan: BoJ rate decision and press conference; Japan CPI (Dec). PMI manufacturing in Australia and Japan.

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Bottom line

Asia-Pacific markets enter the week with China’s growth data setting the regional tone, Japan facing heightened FX sensitivity into a BoJ meeting, and Australia focused on labour-market signals alongside commodity price direction.

Chinese GDP and industrial production are a test of whether activity is stabilising, with implications for regional risk appetite, materials pricing and the AUD. 

In Japan, any shift in BoJ communication could drive USD/JPY volatility and spill into broader equity sentiment. For Australia, local employment data and external influences, particularly China and global risk conditions, are likely to shape short-term expectations across rates, equities and currency markets.

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US earnings season is where the market gets its cleanest burst of new information. For Australians, it usually lands while the country is asleep. This is not just “US company news”. It is the scoreboard for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and risk appetite more broadly, with spillover into SPI futures, the AUD, and sector mood at the ASX open.

What this guide covers

• The four-wave rhythm (why volatility clusters in predictable months)
• The order of play (banks → tech → retailers) and what each group tends to reveal
• Before market open (BMO) vs after market close (AMC)
• The few lines markets care about (surprise vs expectations, and the forward reset)
• How earnings information can flow through to Australia via futures, FX, and sector sentiment

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US earnings season basics

Earnings season is the 4 to 6-week window after each quarter when most US-listed companies report a new set of numbers and a new story.

Calendar rhythm and clustering

Earnings does not arrive as a smooth drip. It typically arrives in four recurring waves. Most US reporting clusters around January, April, July, and October. Each wave covers the prior quarter, which is why markets spend the lead-up period building expectations, then reprice quickly as numbers and guidance hit.

The sequence is familiar: banks open, tech dominates the middle, retailers close. That order matters because each group updates a different part of the macro story. If you only track one set of reports, make it the Magnificent 7 — here’s the Mag 7 earnings calendar for 2026 (Aussie-friendly timing)

Time zones: the two windows

For Australians, the key is when the first move hits.

• AMC (after market close): often Sydney and Melbourne morning, sometimes near the ASX open
• BMO (before market open): often late night, with the initial reaction while Australia sleeps

Daylight saving shifts timings, but the structure is consistent: two windows, two different liquidity conditions.

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How the market digests an earnings event

Earnings is rarely a single reaction. It is a sequence.

1. Headline release (EPS and revenue versus consensus)
2. Immediate price discovery (often in after-hours or pre-market liquidity)
3. Call and Q&A (guidance, margins, and demand tone get tested)
4. Next US cash session (follow-through, reversals, broader positioning)
5. Australia opens into the aftershock (futures, FX, and sector mood already set)

Translation: volatility often clusters around reporting windows because the calendar can concentrate new information and repricing.
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Expectations: the scoreboard the market uses

Markets do not price “good” or “bad” in isolation. They price the gap versus expectations, then adjust the forward story. That is why the same quarter can look strong on paper and still disappoint if it lands below what the market had already baked in.

Most headlines boil down to three checks. First, actual results versus consensus. Second, actual results versus what the company previously guided. Third, quality and durability. That tends to show up in margins, the mix across segments, and whether cash flow backs up the earnings number.

Guidance: the forward reset

Guidance is where the narrative can change without the quarter changing. A company can deliver the past cleanly, then move the goalposts for what comes next. That forward reset is often what drives the bigger repricing.

In practice, guidance usually lands in a few buckets. Revenue or EPS outlook sets the top-line and earnings path. Margin outlook tells you how confident management is about costs and pricing. Capex language signals how heavy the investment cycle is likely to be. Capital return talk, including buybacks, is a read on balance sheet posture and priorities.

Translation: markets trade forward narratives. Guidance is the mechanism.

The call: where tone becomes data

Prepared remarks are polished. The call is where the market stress-tests the story. The Q&A is where the edges show up, because that is where analysts push on the parts that matter and management has to answer in real time.

Listen for the tells. Demand language can shift from broad to patchy. Pricing can move from power to pressure. Margin confidence can sound steady or start to carry caveats. And the “we are not breaking that out” moments matter too. What management avoids can be as informative as what it highlights.

Key takeaways

• Earnings season clusters in four waves (January, April, July, October), so volatility often arrives in blocks.
• The sequence matters. Banks open the read on confidence, tech steers index tone, retailers often close the consumer chapter.
• From Australia, BMO and AMC are the two windows that shape what you wake up to.
• Markets trade surprise vs expectations, then the forward reset via guidance and call tone.
• The spillover typically shows up through futures, FX, and sector sentiment before the ASX open.

Glossary (quick definitions)

• EPS: earnings per share
• Consensus: the market’s compiled estimate set
• Guidance: management’s forward-looking outlook ranges/comments
• Margins: profitability as a percentage of revenue
• Capex: capital expenditure (investment spend)
• BMO/AMC: before market open / after market close (US reporting labels)
• After-hours / pre-market: trading sessions outside regular US cash hours
• Correlation: how tightly assets move together (often rises in macro or de-risking periods)

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