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The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.
What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.
Key takeaways
- Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
- This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
- If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
- Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
- A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
- Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.
The world’s most critical oil chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.
The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.
Tankers idle as flows slow
Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.
Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.
Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.
A market built on flow, not storage
Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.
Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.
Oil market analysis
How long do idle tankers last?
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Inflation risks and macro spillovers
The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.
Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.
No easy offset, a system with little slack
What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.
Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.
Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.
Bottom line
Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.
Another day, another hike. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announced its latest policy decision to raise its interest rates from 3.25% to 4%, to its highest level since January 2008. On Thursday, it was the Bank of England's turn to announce its decision.
As expected, the central bank raised its interest rates by 0.75% to 4%. It was the highest single increase since 1989. Inflation Bank of England highlighted that its biggest job is to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
The bank expects inflation to rise in Q4 but start falling from early next year. ''Inflation is too high. It is well above our 2% target. High energy, food and other bills are hitting people hard,'' the bank said in a statement. ''It’s our job to make sure that inflation returns to our 2% target.
This month we have raised our interest rate to 3%. In total, since December 2021, we have increased our interest rate from 0.1% to 3%.'' ''What will happen to interest rates will depend on what happens in the economy. At the moment, we expect inflation to fall sharply from the middle of next year.'' Economic outlook As for the economy, the central bank did not have the most positive outlook for the near future.
It now expects the recession to last for a prolonged period. ''There has been a material tightening in financial conditions, including the elevated path of market interest rates. In addition, high energy prices continue to weigh on spending, despite an assumption of some fiscal support for household energy bills over the next two years. As a result, the UK economy is expected to remain in recession throughout 2023 and 2024 H1, and GDP is expected to recover only gradually thereafter.'' Market reaction The Pound was weaker against all major currencies on Thursday, falling the most vs. the US Dollar.
Cable was down by around 1.93%, trading at 1.11771 level. The next Bank of England rate decision will be on 15th December.
Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) reported its latest financial results after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. World’s second largest online travel company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter. Revenue reported at $2.884 billion (up by 29% year-over-year) vs. $2.852 billion expected.
EPS at $1.79 per share (up by 46% year-over-year) vs. $1.485 per share estimate. ''Q3 was our biggest and most profitable quarter ever despite geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds,'' Airbnb wrote in a letter to shareholders. ''In Q3 2022, we had nearly 100 million Nights and Experiences Booked, up 25 percent year-over-year, and $15.6 billion in Gross Booking Value, up 31 percent year-over-year (or 40% ex-FX). Revenue grew 29 percent year-over-year (or 36% ex-FX) to $2.9 billion—our highest quarter ever.'' ''We also had our most profitable quarter with net income of $1.2 billion, up 46 percent year-over-year, representing a 42 percent net income margin. Free cash flow of $960 million increased more than 80 percent from a year ago.
And, over the last twelve months, we generated $3.3 billion in FCF, representing a FCF margin of more than 40 percent. ''Our Q3 results demonstrate that Airbnb continues to drive growth and profitability at scale. And regardless of continued macro uncertainties, we believe we’re well positioned for the road ahead.'' The company expects revenue of between $1.80 billion to $1.88 billion in Q4, which represent growth of between 17% and 23% year-over-year. Shares of Airbnb were trading lower on Wednesday, despite beating Q3 estimates due to future outlook.
The stock was down by around 10% at $97.80 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -12.18% 3 months: -14.67% Year-to-date: -41.05% 1 year: -43.23% Airbnb price targets Morgan Stanley: $110 Mizuho: $125 Baird: $120 UBS: $112 Credit Suisse: $154 Goldman Sachs: $98 Piper Sandler: $110 Keybanc: $142 Jefferies: $138 Airbnb Inc. is the 208 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $63.27 billion. You can trade Airbnb Inc. (NAS:ABNB) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Airbnb Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
Shares of Pfizer rise as Q3 earnings beat estimates Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) reported its latest financial results for the third quarter before the opening bell on Tuesday in the US. The US pharmaceutical company reported revenue of $22.638 billion (down 6% year-over-year) vs. $21.072 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $1.78 per share vs. $1.387 per share estimate.
David Denton, CFO of Pfizer commented on the results: ''Third-quarter results demonstrated commercial strength across many areas of our business but was somewhat obscured by the incredibly strong performance in the prior year. We saw strong operational performance this quarter from key brands such as Paxlovid and Eliquis, particularly in the U.S., as well as the continued impressive launch of Prevnar 20 for adults in the U.S. In addition, we continue to make progress toward our goal of adding at least $25 billion in risk adjusted 2030 revenues to Pfizer’s portfolio through business development.
Since we last reported earnings, we completed the acquisitions of Biohaven and Global Blood Therapeutics, each of which bring significant scientific breakthroughs to Pfizer and which present opportunities where we believe we can add great value.'' ''I look forward to continuing to execute on Pfizer’s strategies to deliver breakthroughs to patients and value to shareholders,'' Denton concluded. The stock was up by around 3% on Tuesday, trading at $47.94 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +7.85% 3 months: -3.50% Year-to-date: -18.80% 1 year: +5.50% Pfizer price targets Morgan Stanley: $50 Barclays: $44 SVB Leerink: $48 Wells Fargo: $55 Citigroup: $57 B of A Securities: $70 Pfizer is the 27 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $269.29 billion.
You can trade Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Pfizer Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for October on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,059 cars last month – up by 174.3% year-over-year. The deliveries in October consisted of: 5,979 premium smart electric SUV’s 4,080 premium smart electric sedans Production and deliveries were impacted by supply chain issues and other constraints caused by COVID-19 outbreaks in certain parts of China, according to the company.
NIO has delivered a total of 259,563 electric vehicles as of October 31, 2022. The stock made some gains on Tuesday, up by around 2% at $9.93 a share. Shares of NIO have plummeted by over 75% in the past year.
Stock performance 1 month: -40.68% 3 month: -50.82% Year-to-date: -68.67% 1 year: -75.97% NIO price targets Morgan Stanley: $31 HSBC: $28 Goldman Sachs: $56 Barclays: $34 Mizuho: $42 Citigroup: $31.3 B of A Securities: $26 UBS: $32 Barclays: $19 NIO is the 22 nd largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $16.56 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NIO Inc., TardingView, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) announced Q3 earnings results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The world’s largest aerospace company reported revenue that missed analyst expectations at $15.956 billion (up by 4% year-over-year) vs. $17.911 billion estimate. The company reported a loss per share of -$6.18 per share vs. $0.132 earnings per share expected. "We continue to make important strides in our turnaround and remain focused on our performance," Dave Calhoun, Boeing President, and CEO said in a press release following the announcement. "We generated strong cash in the quarter and are on a solid path to achieving positive free cash flow for 2022.
At the same time, revenue and earnings were significantly impacted by losses on our fixed-price defense development programs. We're squarely focused on maturing these programs, mitigating risks and delivering for our customers and their important missions. We remain in a challenging environment and have more work ahead to drive stability, improve our performance and ensure we're consistently delivering on our commitments.
Despite the challenges, I'm proud of our team and the progress we've made to strengthen our company," Calhoun concluded. Shares of Boeing took a hit on after the announcement of the latest results. The stock was down by around 3% at $140.85 a share.
Stock performance 1 month: +6.50% 3 months: -8.95% Year-to-date: -29.41% 1 year: -31.21% Boeing price targets Credit Suisse: $98 Morgan Stanley: $233 Wells Fargo: $210 Benchmark: $200 RBC Capital: $200 JP Morgan: $188 Citigroup: $209 Boeing is the 147 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $83.94 billion. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: The Boeing Company, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The EURUSD is showing some signs of a potential short term break out on the daily and 4-hour time price charts. This is largely a technical breakout, although it is also supported by a shift in sentiment towards growth assets and away from the USD in the last week. Technical Analysis The daily cart shows a long term down trend with the price respecting the trend.
On the daily time frame, the price has broken through the trend line. In addition, the price has broken above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This represents a short-term support level and a good position for a trailing stop loss or hard stop loss.
Looking at the 4-hour chart provides a more direct profit target and entry trigger. The chart shows that the candle sticks are forming into what may become a flag. An entry based on the current price action may be triggered by a breakout of the flag past 1.000 which is also the parity level.
This level also presents as the neckline for a double bottom. This further indicates a potential bottom, or a reversal is about to take place. Using the 50-day Exponential moving average as the position for the stop loss at 0.9914, and the next resistance as a profit target at 1.0200 gives the trade yields a Risk Reward ratio of nearly 2.7.
With volatility surrounding the market being relatively high there is still risks with this trade and traders should be aware of potential macro factors that may impact on the trade.